Estimating the Accuracy of Spectral Learning for HMMs

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are usually learned using the expectation maximisation algorithm which is, unfortunately, subject to local optima. Spectral learning for HMMs provides a unique, optimal solution subject to availability of a sufficient amount of data. However, with access to limited data, there is no means of estimating the accuracy of the solution of a given model. In this paper, a new spectral evaluation method has been proposed which can be used to assess whether the algorithm is converging to a stable solution on a given dataset. The proposed method is designed for real-life datasets where the true model is not available. A number of empirical experiments on synthetic as well as real datasets indicate that our criterion is an accurate proxy to measure quality of models learned using spectral learning

Association between free testosterone levels and anal human papillomavirus Types 16/18 infections in a cohort of men who have sex with men

Background Human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 cause invasive cervical cancer and most invasive anal cancers (IACs). Overall, IAC rates are highest among men who have sex with men (MSM), especially MSM with HIV infection. Testosterone is prescribed for men showing hypogonadism and HIV-related wasting. While there are direct and indirect physiological effects of testosterone in males, its role in anal HPV16/18 infections in men is unknown. Methods Free testosterone (FT) was measured in serum from 340 Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) participants who were tested for anal HPV16/18-DNA approximately 36 months later. The effect of log10-transformed current FT level on anal HPV16/18 prevalence was modeled using Poisson regression with robust error variance. Multivariate models controlled for other HPV types, cumulative years of exogenous testosterone use, race, age, lifetime number of receptive anal intercourse partnerships, body mass index, tobacco smoking, HIV-infection and CD4+ T-cell counts among HIV-infected, and blood draw timing. Results Participants were, on average, 60 (+5.4) years of age, White (86%), and HIV-uninfected (56%); Twenty-four percent tested positive for anal HPV16 and/or 18-DNA (HPV16 prevalence= 17.1%, HPV18=9.1%). In adjusted analysis, each half-log10 increase of FT was associated with a 1.9-fold (95% Confidence Interval: 1.11, 3.24) higher HPV16/18 prevalence. Additionally, other Group 1 high-risk HPVs were associated with a 1.56-fold (1.03, 2.37) higher HPV16/18 prevalence. Traditional risk factors for HPV16/18 infection (age, tobacco smoking; lifetime number of sexual partners, including the number of receptive anal intercourse partnerships within 24 months preceding HPV testing) were poorly correlated with one another and not statistically significantly associated with higher prevalence of HPV16/ 18 infection in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Conclusions Higher free testosterone was associated with increased HPV16/18 prevalence measured approximately three years later, independent of sexual behavior and other potential confounders. The mechanisms underlying this association remain unclear and warrant further study

Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

An algorithm to assess methodological quality of nutrition and mortality cross-sectional surveys: development and application to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan

Background Nutrition and mortality surveys are the main tools whereby evidence on the health status of populations affected by disasters and armed conflict is quantified and monitored over time. Several reviews have consistently revealed a lack of rigor in many surveys. We describe an algorithm for analyzing nutritional and mortality survey reports to identify a comprehensive range of errors that may result in sampling, response, or measurement biases and score quality. We apply the algorithm to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Methods We developed an algorithm based on internationally agreed upon methods and best practices. Penalties are attributed for a list of errors, and an overall score is built from the summation of penalties accrued by the survey as a whole. To test the algorithm reproducibility, it was independently applied by three raters on 30 randomly selected survey reports. The algorithm was further applied to more than 100 surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. Results The Intra Class Correlation coefficient was 0.79 for mortality surveys and 0.78 for nutrition surveys. The overall median quality score and range of about 100 surveys conducted in Darfur were 0.60 (0.12-0.93) and 0.675 (0.23-0.86) for mortality and nutrition surveys, respectively. They varied between the organizations conducting the surveys, with no major trend over time. Conclusion Our study suggests that it is possible to systematically assess quality of surveys and reveals considerable problems with the quality of nutritional and particularly mortality surveys conducted in the Darfur crisis.BioMed Central Open acces

Independent position correction on tumor and lymph nodes; consequences for bladder cancer irradiation with two combined IMRT plans

Abstract Background The application of lipiodol injections as markers around bladder tumors combined with the use of CBCT for image guidance enables daily on-line position correction based on the position of the bladder tumor. However, this might introduce the risk of underdosing the pelvic lymph nodes. In this study several correction strategies were compared. Methods For this study set-up errors and tumor displacements for ten complete treatments were generated; both were based on the data of 10 bladder cancer patients. Besides, two IMRT plans were made for 20 patients, one for the elective field and a boost plan for the tumor. For each patient 10 complete treatments were simulated. For each treatment the dose was calculated without position correction (option 1), correction on bony anatomy (option 2), on tumor only (option 3) and separately on bone for the elective field (option 4). For each method we analyzed the D99% for the tumor, bladder and lymph nodes and the V95% for the small intestines, rectum, healthy part of the bladder and femoral heads. Results CTV coverage was significantly lower with options 1 and 2. With option 3 the tumor coverage was not significantly different from the treatment plan. The ΔD99% (D99%, option n - D99%, treatment plan) for option 4 was small, but significant. For the lymph nodes the results from option 1 differed not significantly from the treatment plan. The median ΔD99% of the other options were small, but significant. ΔD99% for PTVbladder was small for options 1, 2 and 4, but decreased up to -8.5 Gy when option 3 was applied. Option 4 is the only method where the difference with the treatment plan never exceeds 2 Gy. The V95% for the rectum, femoral heads and small intestines was small in the treatment plan and this remained so after applying the correction options, indicating that no additional hot spots occurred. Conclusions Applying independent position correction on bone for the elective field and on tumor for the boost separately gives on average the best target coverage, without introducing additional hot spots in the healthy tissue.</p

The optimal number of lymph nodes examined in stage II colorectal cancer and its impact of on outcomes

Background: Lymph node status is the most important prognostic factor for colorectal cancer. The number of lymph nodes that should be histologically examined has been controversial. The aims of this study were to assess the impact of the number of lymph nodes examined on survival of patients with stage II colorectal cancer and to determine the optimal number of lymph nodes that should be examined.Methods: The study included 664 patients who underwent resection for stage II colorectal cancer. The clinical and histopathologic data of the patients were prospectively collected and analyzed.Results: The median number of lymph nodes examined was 12 (range: 1 to 58). The 5-year disease free survival rate was significantly higher for patients with 12 or more lymph nodes examined compared to those with less than 12 lymph nodes examined. The significant difference in 5-year disease free survival persisted if the dividing number increased progressively from 12 to 23. However, the difference in survival was most significant (lowest p value and highest hazard ratio) for the number 21. The 5-year disease free survival of patients with 21 or more lymph nodes examined was 80% whereas that of patients with less than 21 lymph nodes examined was 60% (p = 0.001, hazard ratio 2.08). Multivariate analysis showed that 21 or more lymph nodes examined was a factor that independently influenced survival. The 5-year disease free survival also increased progressively with the number of lymph node examined up to the number 21. After the number 21, the survival rate did not increase further. It was likely that 21 was the optimal number, at and above which the chance of lymph node metastasis was minimal.Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined in colorectal cancer specimen significantly influences survival. It is recommended that at least 21 lymph nodes should be examined for accurate diagnosis of stage II colorectal cancer. © 2010 Choi et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.published_or_final_versio

The assessment, serial evaluation, and subsequent sequelae of acute kidney injury (ASSESS-AKI) study: design and methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) has been increasing over time and is associated with a high risk of short-term death. Previous studies on hospital-acquired AKI have important methodological limitations, especially their retrospective study designs and limited ability to control for potential confounding factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury (ASSESS-AKI) Study was established to examine how a hospitalized episode of AKI independently affects the risk of chronic kidney disease development and progression, cardiovascular events, death, and other important patient-centered outcomes. This prospective study will enroll a cohort of 1100 adult participants with a broad range of AKI and matched hospitalized participants without AKI at three Clinical Research Centers, as well as 100 children undergoing cardiac surgery at three Clinical Research Centers. Participants will be followed for up to four years, and will undergo serial evaluation during the index hospitalization, at three months post-hospitalization, and at annual clinic visits, with telephone interviews occurring during the intervening six-month intervals. Biospecimens will be collected at each visit, along with information on lifestyle behaviors, quality of life and functional status, cognitive function, receipt of therapies, interim renal and cardiovascular events, electrocardiography and urinalysis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>ASSESS-AKI will characterize the short-term and long-term natural history of AKI, evaluate the incremental utility of novel blood and urine biomarkers to refine the diagnosis and prognosis of AKI, and identify a subset of high-risk patients who could be targeted for future clinical trials to improve outcomes after AKI.</p

Glutamate mediated metabolic neutralization mitigates propionate toxicity in intracellular Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Metabolic networks in biological systems are interconnected, such that malfunctioning parts can be corrected by other parts within the network, a process termed adaptive metabolism. Unlike Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) better manages its intracellular lifestyle by executing adaptive metabolism. Here, we used metabolomics and identified glutamate synthase (GltB/D) that converts glutamine to glutamate (Q → E) as a metabolic effort used to neutralize cytoplasmic pH that is acidified while consuming host propionate carbon through the methylcitrate cycle (MCC). Methylisocitrate lyase, the last step of the MCC, is intrinsically downregulated in BCG, leading to obstruction of carbon flux toward central carbon metabolism, accumulation of MCC intermediates, and interference with GltB/D mediated neutralizing activity against propionate toxicity. Indeed, vitamin B12 mediated bypass MCC and additional supplement of glutamate led to selectively correct the phenotypic attenuation in BCG and restore the adaptive capacity of BCG to the similar level of Mtb phenotype. Collectively, a defective crosstalk between MCC and Q → E contributes to attenuation of intracellular BCG. Furthermore, GltB/D inhibition enhances the level of propionate toxicity in Mtb. Thus, these findings revealed a new adaptive metabolism and propose GltB/D as a synergistic target to improve the antimicrobial outcomes of MCC inhibition in Mtb

Long Tract of Untranslated CAG Repeats Is Deleterious in Transgenic Mice

The most frequent trinucleotide repeat found in human disorders is the CAG sequence. Expansion of CAG repeats is mostly found in coding regions and is thought to cause diseases through a protein mechanism. Recently, expanded CAG repeats were shown to induce toxicity at the RNA level in Drosophila and C. elegans. These findings raise the possibility that CAG repeats may trigger RNA-mediated pathogenesis in mammals. Here, we demonstrate that transgenic mice expressing EGFP transcripts with long CAG repeats in the 3′ untranslated region develop pathogenic features. Expression of the transgene was directed to the muscle in order to compare the resulting phenotype to that caused by the CUG expansion, as occurs in myotonic dystrophy. Transgenic mice expressing 200, but not those expressing 0 or 23 CAG repeats, showed alterations in muscle morphology, histochemistry and electrophysiology, as well as abnormal behavioral phenotypes. Expression of the expanded CAG repeats in testes resulted in reduced fertility due to defective sperm motility. The production of EGFP protein was significantly reduced by the 200 CAG repeats, and no polyglutamine-containing product was detected, which argues against a protein mechanism. Moreover, nuclear RNA foci were detected for the long CAG repeats. These data support the notion that expanded CAG repeat RNA can cause deleterious effects in mammals. They also suggest the possible involvement of an RNA mechanism in human diseases with long CAG repeats