External evaluation of population pharmacokinetic models of vancomycin in neonates: the transferability of published models to different clinical settings

AimsVancomycin is one of the most evaluated antibiotics in neonates using modeling and simulation approaches. However no clear consensus on optimal dosing has been achieved. The objective of the present study was to perform an external evaluation of published models, in order to test their predictive performances in an independent dataset and to identify the possible study-related factors influencing the transferability of pharmacokinetic models to different clinical settings.MethodPublished neonatal vancomycin pharmacokinetic models were screened from the literature. The predictive performance of six models was evaluated using an independent dataset (112 concentrations from 78 neonates). The evaluation procedures used simulation-based diagnostics [visual predictive check (VPC) and normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE)].ResultsDifferences in predictive performances of models for vancomycin pharmacokinetics in neonates were found. The mean of NPDE for six evaluated models were 1.35, −0.22, −0.36, 0.24, 0.66 and 0.48, respectively. These differences were explained, at least partly, by taking into account the method used to measure serum creatinine concentrations. The adult conversion factor of 1.3 (enzymatic to Jaffé) was tested with an improvement in the VPC and NPDE, but it still needs to be evaluated and validated in neonates. Differences were also identified between analytical methods for vancomycin.ConclusionThe importance of analytical techniques for serum creatinine concentrations and vancomycin as predictors of vancomycin concentrations in neonates have been confirmed. Dosage individualization of vancomycin in neonates should consider not only patients' characteristics and clinical conditions, but also the methods used to measure serum creatinine and vancomycin

A semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-enzyme turnover model for rifampin autoinduction in adult tuberculosis patients.

The currently recommended doses of rifampin are believed to be at the lower end of the dose-response curve. Rifampin induces its own metabolism, although the effect of dose on the extent of autoinduction is not known. This study aimed to investigate rifampin autoinduction using a semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-enzyme turnover model. Four different structural basic models were explored to assess whether different scaling methods affected the final covariate selection procedure. Covariates were selected by using a linearized approach. The final model included the allometric scaling of oral clearance and apparent volume of distribution. Although HIV infection was associated with a 30% increase in the apparent volume of distribution, simulations demonstrated that the effect of HIV on rifampin exposure was slight. Model-based simulations showed close-to-maximum induction achieved after 450-mg daily dosing, since negligible increases in oral clearance were observed following the 600-mg/day regimen. Thus, dosing above 600 mg/day is unlikely to result in higher magnitudes of autoinduction. In a typical 55-kg male without HIV infection, the oral clearance, which was 7.76 liters · h⁻¹ at the first dose, increased 1.82- and 1.85-fold at steady state after daily dosing with 450 and 600 mg, respectively. Corresponding reductions of 41 and 42%, respectively, in the area under the concentration-versus-time curve from 0 to 24 h were estimated. The turnover of the inducible process was estimated to have a half-life of approximately 8 days in a typical patient. Assuming 5 half-lives to steady state, this corresponds to a duration of approximately 40 days to reach the induced state for rifampin autoinduction

Evaluation of initial and steady-state gatifloxacin pharmacokinetics and dose in pulmonary tuberculosis patients by using monte carlo simulations.

A 4-month regimen of gatifloxacin with rifampin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide is being evaluated for the treatment of tuberculosis in a phase 3 randomized controlled trial (OFLOTUB). A prior single-dose study found that gatifloxacin exposure increased by 14% in the combination. The aims of the study are to evaluate the initial and steady-state pharmacokinetics of gatifloxacin when daily doses are given to patients with newly diagnosed drug-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis as part of a combination regimen and to evaluate the gatifloxacin dose with respect to the probability of attaining a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target. We describe the population pharmacokinetics of gatifloxacin from the first dose to a median of 28 days in 169 adults enrolled in the OFLOTUB trial in Benin, Guinea, Senegal, and South Africa. The probability of achieving a ratio of ≥125 for the area under the concentration time curve to infinity (AUC0-∞) for the free fraction of gatifloxacin over the MIC (fAUC/MIC) was investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. The median AUC0-∞ of 41.2 μg · h/ml decreased on average by 14.3% (90% confidence interval [CI], -90.5% to +61.5%) following multiple 400-mg daily doses. At steady state, 90% of patients achieved an fAUC/MIC of ≥125 only when the MIC was <0.125 μg/ml. We conclude that systemic exposure to gatifloxacin declines with repeated daily 400-mg doses when used together with rifampin, isoniazid, and pyrazinamide, thus compensating for any initial increase in gatifloxacin levels due to a drug interaction. (The OFLOTUB study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00216385.)

International trade without CES : estimating translog gravity

This paper derives a micro-founded gravity equation based on a translog demand system that allows for flexible substitution patterns across goods. In contrast to the standard CES-based gravity equation, translog gravity generates an endogenous trade cost elasticity. Trade is more sensitive to trade costs if the exporting country only provides a small share of the destination country's imports. As a result, trade costs have a heterogeneous impact across country pairs, with some trade flows predicted to be zero. I test the translog gravity equation and find empirical evidence that is in many ways consistent with its predictions. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved