Measuring differential rotation of the K-giant ζ\zeta\,And

We investigate the temporal spot evolution of the K-giant component in the RS CVn-type binary system $\zeta$\,Andromedae to establish its surface differential rotation. Doppler imaging is used to study three slightly overlapping spectroscopic datasets, obtained independently at three different observing sites. Each dataset covers one full stellar rotation with good phase coverage, and in total, results in a continuous coverage of almost three stellar rotations ($P_{\rm rot}=$17.8\,d). Therefore, these data are well suited for reconstructing surface temperature maps and studying temporal evolution in spot configurations. Surface differential rotation is measured by the means of cross-correlation of all the possible image pairs. The individual Doppler reconstructions well agree in the revealed spot pattern, recovering numerous low latitude spots with temperature contrasts of up to $\approx$1000\,K with respect to the unspotted photosphere, and also an asymmetric polar cap which is diminishing with time. Our detailed cross-correlation study consistently indicate solar-type differential rotation with an average surface shear $\alpha\approx0.055$, in agreement with former results.Comment: accepted for publication in A&A, 4 pages, 3 figure

Ellipsoidal primary of the RS CVn binary zeta And: Investigation using high-resolution spectroscopy and optical interferometry

We have obtained high-resolution spectroscopy, optical interferometry, and long-term broad band photometry of the ellipsoidal primary of the RS CVn-type binary system zeta And. Based on the optical interferometry the apparent limb darkened diameter of zeta And is 2.55 +/- 0.09 mas using a uniform disk fit. The Hipparcos distance and the limb-darkened diameter obtained with a uniform disk fit give stellar radius of 15.9 +/- 0.8 Rsolar, and combined with bolometric luminosity, it implies an effective temperature of 4665 +/- 140 K. The temperature maps obtained from high resolution spectra using Doppler imaging show a strong belt of equatorial spots and hints of a cool polar cap. The equatorial spots show a concentration around the phase 0.75. This spot configuration is reminiscent of the one seen in the earlier published temperature maps of zeta And. Investigation of the Halpha line reveals both prominences and cool clouds in the chromosphere. Long-term photometry spanning 12 years shows hints of a spot activity cycle, which is also implied by the Doppler images, but the cycle length cannot be reliably determined from the current data.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, accepted for A&

Assimilation of atmospheric infrasound data to constrain tropospheric and stratospheric winds

This data assimilation study exploits infrasound from explosions to probe an atmospheric wind component from the ground up to stratospheric altitudes. Planned explosions of old ammunition in Finland generate transient infrasound waves that travel through the atmosphere. These waves are partially reflected back towards the ground from stratospheric levels, and are detected at a receiver station located in northern Norway at 178 km almost due North from the explosion site. The difference between the true horizontal direction towards the source and the backazimuth direction(the horizontal direction of arrival) of the incoming infrasound wave-fronts, in combination with the pulse propagation time, are exploited to provide an estimate of the average cross-wind component in the penetrated atmosphere. We perform offline assimilation experiments with an ensemble Kalman filter and these observations, using the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis atmospheric product as background(prior) for the wind at different vertical levels. We demonstrate that information from both source scan be combined to obtain analysis (posterior) estimates of cross-winds at different vertical levels of the atmospheric slice between the explosion site and the recording station. The assimilation makes greatest impact at the 12−60 km levels, with some changes with respect to the prior of the order of 0.1−1.0 m/s, which is a magnitude larger than the typical standard deviation of the ERA5 background. The reduction of background variance in the higher levels often reached 2−5%. This is the first published study demonstrating techniques to implement assimilation of infrasound data into atmospheric models. It paves the way for further exploration in the use of infrasound observations– especially natural and continuous sources – to probe the middle atmospheric dynamics and to assimilate these data into atmospheric model products

Review of the potential health impact of B-casomorphins and related peptides : report of the DATEX working group on B-casomorphins

v2009o

EC-Earth3-AerChem: A global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average -0.09 W m-2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m-2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∼ C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∼ C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∼ C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∼ C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∼ C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 ± 0.05 ∼ C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∼ C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∼ C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∼ C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 ∼ C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∼ C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∼ C

Geochemistry of natural and anthropogenic fall-out (aerosol and precipitation) collected in NW Mediterranean: two different multivariate statistical approaches

The chemical characteristics of the mineral fractions of aerosol and precipitation collected in Sardinia (NW Mediterranean) are highlighted by means of two multivariate statistical approaches. Two different combinations of classification and statistical methods for geochemical data are presented. It is shown that the application of cluster analysis subsequent to Q-Factor analysis better distinguishes among Saharan dust, Background pollution (Europe-Mediterranean) and Local aerosol from various source regions (Sardinia). Conversely, the application of simple cluster analysis was able to distinguish only between aerosols and precipitation particles, without assigning the sources (local or distant) to the aerosol. This method also highlighted the fact that crust-enriched precipitation is similar to desert-derived aerosol. Major elements (Al, Na) and trace metal (Pb) turn out to be the most discriminating elements of the analysed data set. Independent use of mineralogical, granulometric and meteorological data confirmed the results derived from the statistical methods employed

EC-Earth3-AerChem : a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average 0.09 Wm(-2) with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 Wm(-2), showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 degrees C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 degrees C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 +/- 0.005 degrees C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 degrees C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 degrees C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 +/- 0.05 degrees C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 degrees C in the North-ern Hemisphere and 1.29 +/- 0.02 degrees C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 degrees C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 degrees C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 degrees C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 degrees C.Peer reviewe

EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average −0.09 W m−2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m−2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∘C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∘C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∘C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∘C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∘C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.05 ∘C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∘C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∘C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∘C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 ∘C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∘C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∘C

Modifiable risk factors predicting major depressive disorder at four year follow-up: a decision tree approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Relative to physical health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, little is known about risk factors that predict the prevalence of depression. The present study investigates the expected effects of a reduction of these risks over time, using the decision tree method favoured in assessing cardiovascular disease risk.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The PATH through Life cohort was used for the study, comprising 2,105 20-24 year olds, 2,323 40-44 year olds and 2,177 60-64 year olds sampled from the community in the Canberra region, Australia. A decision tree methodology was used to predict the presence of major depressive disorder after four years of follow-up. The decision tree was compared with a logistic regression analysis using ROC curves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decision tree was found to distinguish and delineate a wide range of risk profiles. Previous depressive symptoms were most highly predictive of depression after four years, however, modifiable risk factors such as substance use and employment status played significant roles in assessing the risk of depression. The decision tree was found to have better sensitivity and specificity than a logistic regression using identical predictors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The decision tree method was useful in assessing the risk of major depressive disorder over four years. Application of the model to the development of a predictive tool for tailored interventions is discussed.</p