Optimal solution error covariance in highly nonlinear problems of variational data assimilation

The problem of variational data assimilation for a nonlinear evolution model is formulated as an optimal control problem (see, e.g.[1]) to find the initial condition, boundary conditions or model parameters. The input data contain observation and background errors, hence there is an error in the optimal solution. For mildly nonlinear dynamics, the covariance matrix of the optimal solution error can be approximated by the inverse Hessian of the cost functional of an auxiliary data assimilation problem ([2], [3]). The relationship between the optimal solution error covariance matrix and the Hessian of the auxiliary control problem is discussed for different degrees of validity of the tangent linear hypothesis. For problems with strongly nonlinear dynamics a new statistical method based on computation of a sample of inverse Hessians is suggested. This method relies on the efficient computation of the inverse Hessian by means of iterative methods (Lanczos and quasi-Newton BFGS) with preconditioning. The method allows us to get a sensible approximation of the posterior covariance matrix with a small sample size. Numerical examples are presented for the model governed by Burgers equation with a nonlinear viscous term. The first author acknowledges the funding through the project 09-01-00284 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, and the FCP program "Kadry"

Vitellogenesis as a biomarker for estrogenic contamination of the aquatic environment

A rapidly increasing number of chemicals, or their degradation products, are being recognized as possessing estrogenic activity, albeit usually weak. We have found that effluent from sewage treatment works contains a chemical, or mixture of chemicals, that induces vitellogenin synthesis in male fish maintained in the effluent, thus indicating that the effluent is estrogenic. The effect was extremely pronounced and occurred at all sewage treatment works tested. The nature of the chemical or chemicals causing the effect is presently not known. However, we have tested a number of chemicals known to be estrogenic to mammals and have shown that they are also estrogenic to fish; that is, no species specificity was apparent. Many of these weakly estrogenic chemicals are known to be present in effluents. Further, a mixture of different estrogenic chemicals was considerably more potent than each of the chemicals when tested individually, suggesting that enhanced effects could occur when fish are exposed simultaneously to various estrogenic chemicals (as is likely to occur in rivers receiving effluent). Subsequent work should determine whether exposure to these chemicals at the concentrations present in the environment leads to any deleterious physiological effects

Exhumation, crustal deformation, and thermal structure of the Nepal Himalaya derived from the inversion of thermochronological and thermobarometric data and modeling of the topography

Two end‐member kinematic models of crustal shortening across the Himalaya are currently debated: one assumes localized thrusting along a single major thrust fault, the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) with nonuniform underplating due to duplexing, and the other advocates for out‐of‐sequence (OOS) thrusting in addition to thrusting along the MHT and underplating. We assess these two models based on the modeling of thermochronological, thermometric, and thermobarometric data from the central Nepal Himalaya. We complement a data set compiled from the literature with 114 ^(40)Ar/^(39)Ar, 10 apatite fission track, and 5 zircon (U‐Th)/He thermochronological data. The data are predicted using a thermokinematic model (PECUBE), and the model parameters are constrained using an inverse approach based on the Neighborhood Algorithm. The model parameters include geometric characteristics as well as overthrusting rates, radiogenic heat production in the High Himalayan Crystalline (HHC) sequence, the age of initiation of the duplex or of out-of-sequence thrusting. Both models can provide a satisfactory fit to the inverted data. However, the model with out-of-sequence thrusting implies an unrealistic convergence rate ≥30 mm yr^(−1). The out-of-sequence thrust model can be adjusted to fit the convergence rate and the thermochronological data if the Main Central Thrust zone is assigned a constant geometry and a dip angle of about 30° and a slip rate of <1 mm yr^(−1). In the duplex model, the 20 mm yr^(−1) convergence rate is partitioned between an overthrusting rate of 5.8 ± 1.4 mm yr^(−1) and an underthrusting rate of 14.2 ± 1.8 mm yr^(−1). Modern rock uplift rates are estimated to increase from about 0.9 ± 0.31 mm yr^(−1) in the Lesser Himalaya to 3.0 ± 0.9 mm yr^(−1) at the front of the high range, 86 ± 13 km from the Main Frontal Thrust. The effective friction coefficient is estimated to be 0.07 or smaller, and the radiogenic heat production of HHC units is estimated to be 2.2 ± 0.1 µWm^(−3). The midcrustal duplex initiated at 9.8 ± 1.7 Ma, leading to an increase of uplift rate at front of the High Himalaya from 0.9 ± 0.31 to 3.05 ± 0.9 mm yr^(−1). We also run 3-D models by coupling PECUBE with a landscape evolution model (CASCADE). This modeling shows that the effect of the evolving topography can explain a fraction of the scatter observed in the data but not all of it, suggesting that lateral variations of the kinematics of crustal deformation and exhumation are likely. It has been argued that the steep physiographic transition at the foot of the Greater Himalayan Sequence indicates OOS thrusting, but our results demonstrate that the best fit duplex model derived from the thermochronological and thermobarometric data reproduces the present morphology of the Nepal Himalaya equally well

Selective attention moderates the relationship between attentional capture by signals of nondrug reward and illicit drug use

BACKGROUND: The current study examined whether cognitive control moderates the association between (non-drug) reward-modulated attentional capture and use of alcohol and other drugs (AOD). METHODS: Participants were 66 university students who completed an assessment including questions about AOD use, a visual search task to measure value-modulated attentional capture, and a goal-directed selective attention task as a measure of cognitive control. RESULTS: The association between the effect of value-modulated attentional capture and illicit drug use was moderated by level of cognitive control. Among participants with lower levels of cognitive control, value-modulated attentional capture was associated with illicit drug use. This was not the case among participants with higher levels of cognitive control, who instead showed a significant association between illicit drug use and self-reported impulsivity, as well as alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide support for models that view addictive behaviours as resulting from interaction and competition between automatic and more reflective processes. That is, the mechanisms that ultimately drive addictive behaviour may differ between people low or high in cognitive control. This has important implications for understanding the development and maintenance of substance use disorders and potentially their treatment and prevention

European Union's public fishing access agreements in developing countries

The imperative to increase seafood supply while dealing with its overfished local stocks has pushed the European Union (EU) and its Member States to fish in the Exclusive Economic Zones of other countries through various types of fishing agreements for decades. Although European public fishing agreements are commented on regularly and considered to be transparent, this is the first global and historical study on the fee regime that governs them. We find that the EU has subsidized these agreements at an average of 75% of their cost (financial contribution agreed upon in the agreements), while private European business interests paid the equivalent of 1.5% of the value of the fish that was eventually landed. This raises questions of fisheries benefit-sharing and resource-use equity that the EU has the potential to address during the nearly completed reform of its Common Fisheries Policy

Patterns of primary care and mortality among patients with schizophrenia or diabetes: a cluster analysis approach to the retrospective study of healthcare utilization

Abstract Background Patients with schizophrenia have difficulty managing their medical healthcare needs, possibly resulting in delayed treatment and poor outcomes. We analyzed whether patients reduced primary care use over time, differentially by diagnosis with schizophrenia, diabetes, or both schizophrenia and diabetes. We also assessed whether such patterns of primary care use were a significant predictor of mortality over a 4-year period. Methods The Veterans Healthcare Administration (VA) is the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States. Administrative extracts of the VA's all-electronic medical records were studied. Patients over age 50 and diagnosed with schizophrenia in 2002 were age-matched 1:4 to diabetes patients. All patients were followed through 2005. Cluster analysis explored trajectories of primary care use. Proportional hazards regression modelled the impact of these primary care utilization trajectories on survival, controlling for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Patients comprised three diagnostic groups: diabetes only (n = 188,332), schizophrenia only (n = 40,109), and schizophrenia with diabetes (Scz-DM, n = 13,025). Cluster analysis revealed four distinct trajectories of primary care use: consistent over time, increasing over time, high and decreasing, low and decreasing. Patients with schizophrenia only were likely to have low-decreasing use (73% schizophrenia-only vs 54% Scz-DM vs 52% diabetes). Increasing use was least common among schizophrenia patients (4% vs 8% Scz-DM vs 7% diabetes) and was associated with improved survival. Low-decreasing primary care, compared to consistent use, was associated with shorter survival controlling for demographics and case-mix. The observational study was limited by reliance on administrative data. Conclusion Regular primary care and high levels of primary care were associated with better survival for patients with chronic illness, whether psychiatric or medical. For schizophrenia patients, with or without comorbid diabetes, primary care offers a survival benefit, suggesting that innovations in treatment retention targeting at-risk groups can offer significant promise of improving outcomes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78274/1/1472-6963-9-127.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78274/2/1472-6963-9-127.pdfPeer Reviewe

Cluster number counts dependence on dark energy inhomogeneities and coupling to dark matter

Cluster number counts can be used to test dark energy models. We investigate dark energy candidates which are coupled to dark matter. We analyze the cluster number counts dependence on the amount of dark matter coupled to dark energy. Further more, we study how dark energy inhomogeneities affect cluster abundances. It is shown that increasing the coupling reduces significantly the cluster number counts, and that dark energy inhomogeneities increases cluster abundances. Wiggles in cluster number counts are shown to be a specific signature of coupled dark energy models. Future observations will possibly detect such oscillations and discriminate among the different dark energy models.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. Further extensions on section on discriminating models with future surveys. Accepted for publication in Mon. Not. Roy. Astro. So

Oscillations in the dark energy EoS: new MCMC lessons

We study the possibility of detecting oscillating patterns in the equation of state (EoS) of the dark energy using different cosmological datasets. We follow a phenomenological approach and study three different oscillating models for the EoS, one of them periodic and the other two damped (proposed here for the first time). All the models are characterised by the amplitude value, the centre and the frequency of oscillations. In contrast to previous works in the literature, we do not fix the value of the frequency to a fiducial value related to the time extension of chosen datasets, but consider a discrete set of values, so to avoid arbitrariness and try and detect any possible time period in the EoS. We test the models using a recent collection of SNeIa, direct Hubble data and Gamma Ray Bursts data. Main results are: I. even if constraints on the amplitude are not too strong, we detect a trend of it versus the frequency, i.e. decreasing (and even negatives) amplitudes for higher frequencies; II. the centre of oscillation (which corresponds to the present value of the EoS parameter) is very well constrained, phantom behaviour is excluded at $1\sigma$ level and trend which is in agreement with the one for the amplitude appears; III. the frequency is hard to constrain, showing similar statistical validity for all the values of the discrete set chosen, but the best fit of all the scenarios considered is associated with a period which is in the redshift range depicted by our cosmological data. The "best" oscillating models are compared with $\Lambda$CDM using dimensionally consistent a Bayesian approach based information criterion and the conclusion reached is the non existence of significant evidence against dark energy oscillations.Comment: 12 papers, mn2e, 8 figure