Local Linear Forecasts Using Cubic Smoothing Splines

We show how cubic smoothing splines fitted to univariate time series data can be used to obtain local linear forecasts. Our approach is based on a stochastic state space model which allows the use of a likelihood approach for estimating the smoothing parameter, and which enables easy construction of prediction intervals. We show that our model is a special case of an ARIMA(0,2,2) model and we provide a simple upper bound for the smoothing parameter to ensure an invertible model. We also show that the spline model is not a special case of Holt's local linear trend method. Finally we compare the spline forecasts with Holt's forecasts and those obtained from the full ARIMA(0,2,2) model, showing that the restricted parameter space does not impair forecast performance.ARIMA models; exponential smoothing; Holt's local linear forecasts; maximum likelihood estimation; nonparametric regression; smoothing splines; state space model, stochastic trends.

Exponential Smoothing Model Selection for Forecasting

Applications of exponential smoothing to forecast time series usually rely on three basic methods: simple exponential smoothing, trend corrected exponential smoothing and a seasonal variation thereof. A common approach to select the method appropriate to a particular time series is based on prediction validation on a withheld part of the sample using criteria such as the mean absolute percentage error. A second approach is to rely on the most appropriate general case of the three methods. For annual series this is trend corrected exponential smoothing: for sub-annual series it is the seasonal adaptation of trend corrected exponential smoothing. The rationale for this approach is that a general method automatically collapses to its nested counterparts when the pertinent conditions pertain in the data. A third approach may be based on an information criterion when maximum likelihood methods are used in conjunction with exponential smoothing to estimate the smoothing parameters. In this paper, such approaches for selecting the appropriate forecasting method are compared in a simulation study. They are also compared on real time series from the M3 forecasting competition. The results indicate that the information criterion approach appears to provide the best basis for an automated approach to method selection, provided that it is based on Akaike's information criterion.Model Selection; Exponential Smoothing; Information Criteria; Prediction; Forecast Validation

A novel application of queueing theory on the Caulerpenyne secreted by invasive Caulerpa taxifolia (Vahl) C.Agardh (Ulvophyceae, Caulerpales): a preliminary study

Aquarium originated marine green alga Caulerpa taxifolia was introduced into the Mediterranean Sea accidentally in 1984. This invasion has been negatively affecting the sub-littoral ecosystem of the Mediterranean. One of the important reasons for its success in the Mediterranean is its secondary toxic metabolite called caulerpenyne (CPN). Furthermore, CPN has anti-proliferative and apoptotic activities, therefore, CPN can be considered as a potential native source in cancer therapy. For that reason, modeling this metabolite might be of importance. Increase and decrease of the CPN level before reaching the critical level can be expressed by means of a queueing system in which the number of ‘customers' increases and decreases. In fact, production of CPN shows fluctuations for many environmental reasons, which allow us to apply queueing theory. In the present study, the expected time to reach the maximum caulerpenyne level was analyzed and evaluated using queueing theory

Assessing physical activity in people with mental illness: 23-country reliability and validity of the simple physical activity questionnaire (SIMPAQ)

Background: Physical inactivity is a key contributor to the global burden of disease and disproportionately impacts the wellbeing of people experiencing mental illness. Increases in physical activity are associated with improvements in symptoms of mental illness and reduction in cardiometabolic risk. Reliable and valid clinical tools that assess physical activity would improve evaluation of intervention studies that aim to increase physical activity and reduce sedentary behaviour in people living with mental illness.Methods: The five-item Simple Physical Activity Questionnaire (SIMPAQ) was developed by a multidisciplinary, international working group as a clinical tool to assess physical activity and sedentary behaviour in people living with mental illness. Patients with a DSM or ICD mental illness diagnoses were recruited and completed the SIMPAQ on two occasions, one week apart. Participants wore an Actigraph accelerometer and completed brief cognitive and clinical assessments.Results: Evidence of SIMPAQ validity was assessed against accelerometer-derived measures of physical activity. Data were obtained from 1010 participants. The SIMPAQ had good test-retest reliability. Correlations for moderate-vigorous physical activity was comparable to studies conducted in general population samples. Evidence of validity for the sedentary behaviour item was poor. An alternative method to calculate sedentary behaviour had stronger evidence of validity. This alternative method is recommended for use in future studies employing the SIMPAQ.Conclusions: The SIMPAQ is a brief measure of physical activity and sedentary behaviour that can be reliably and validly administered by health professionals

Impact of gaming disorder on first episode psychosis patients' evolution: Protocol for a multicentered prospective study.

The objective of this study is to underline the impact of Gaming Disorder on the clinical evolution of patients with First Episode Psychosis. The specific aims of the study are to determine the prevalence of gaming disorder among those patients and assess the consequences of gaming on their clinical trajectory. This is a prospective multicenter cohort study that will enrol 800 patients diagnosed with a first episode psychosis, with a follow-up period of up to 3 years. Using a systematic screening procedure for gaming disorder, the clinical staff will assess patients gaming habits at admission and every 6 months thereafter. Information from patients' medical records will also be extracted using the same timeframe. The patients' characteristics at admission and during follow-up will be presented in the form of descriptive statistics and compared between different subgroups of patients using uni- and multivariate logistic regression models. Repeated measures ANCOVA will also be performed to analyse the impact of gaming disorders on patients' clinical path as assessed by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and the Clinical Global Impression scale, considering covariates such as psychiatric diagnosis, pharmacological treatment, age, sex/gender, and duration of untreated psychosis. These findings will guide the development of prevention, detection, and treatment strategies for the comorbidity between gaming disorder and first episode psychosis, ultimately improving the patients' recovery

A field-grown transgenic tomato line expressing higher levels of polyamines reveals legume cover crop mulch-specific perturbations in fruit phenotype at the levels of metabolite profiles, gene expression, and agronomic characteristics

Genetic modification of crop plants to introduce desirable traits such as nutritional enhancement, disease and pest resistance, and enhanced crop productivity is increasingly seen as a promising technology for sustainable agriculture and boosting food production in the world. Independently, cultural practices that utilize alternative agriculture strategies including organic cultivation subscribe to sustainable agriculture by limiting chemical usage and reduced tillage. How the two together affect fruit metabolism or plant growth in the field or whether they are compatible has not yet been tested. Fruit-specific yeast S-adenosylmethionine decarboxylase (ySAMdc) line 579HO, and a control line 556AZ were grown in leguminous hairy vetch (Vicia villosa Roth) (HV) mulch and conventional black polyethylene (BP) mulch, and their fruit analysed. Significant genotype×mulch-dependent interactions on fruit phenotype were exemplified by differential profiles of 20 fruit metabolites such as amino acids, sugars, and organic acids. Expression patterns of the ySAMdc transgene, and tomato SAMdc, E8, PEPC, and ICDHc genes were compared between the two lines as a function of growth on either BP or HV mulch. HV mulch significantly stimulated the accumulation of asparagine, glutamate, glutamine, choline, and citrate concomitant with a decrease in glucose in the 556AZ fruits during ripening as compared to BP. It enables a metabolic system in tomato somewhat akin to the one in higher polyamine-accumulating transgenic fruit that have higher phytonutrient content. Finally, synergism was found between HV mulch and transgenic tomato in up-regulating N:C indicator genes PEPC and ICDHc in the fruit

Structural and optical characteristics of erbium doped ternary TeO2-TiO2-Bi2O3 glasses

In this work we investigated both structural and optical characteristic of erbium doped ternary TeO2-TiO2-Bi2O3 tellurite oxide based glasses, synthesized via melt-quench method. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) confirmed its glassy nature and stability. Raman analysis revealed the presence of various coordination state TeO2 network consisting stretching/bending vibrations of Te-O bonds in the [TeO4] trigonal bi-pyramid units and fraction of [TeO3, TeO3+1] trigonal pyramids. From optical absorption measurement both optical band gap and Judd-Ofelt analysis (intensity parameters Ωt (t=2, 4, 6), transition probabilities, and radiative lifetimes of the Er3+ ions) have been performed for both host and doped glasses respectively. Photoluminescence studies for upconversion and near-infrared emissions analysis (under 980 nm excitation at room temperature. Both optical transition mechanism which involved nonradiative energy transfer between Er3+ ions through cross-relaxation and energy migration were also explained in detailed

A humanized mouse model of HPV-associated pathology driven by E7 expression

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the causative agent of human cervical cancer and has been associated with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma development. Although prophylactic vaccines have been developed, there is a need to develop new targeted therapies for individuals affected with malignant infected lesions in these locations, which must be tested in appropriate models. Cutaneous beta HPV types appear to be involved in skin carcinogenesis. Virus oncogenicity is partly achieved by inactivation of retinoblastoma protein family members by the viral E7 gene. Here we show that the E7 protein of cutaneous beta HPV5 binds pRb and promotes its degradation. In addition, we described an in vivo model of HPV-associated disease in which artificial human skin prepared using primary keratinocytes engineered to express the E7 protein is engrafted onto nude mice. Expression of E7 in the transplants was stably maintained for up to 6 months, inducing the appearance of lesions that, in the case of HPV16 E7, histologically resembled human anogenital lesions caused by oncogenic HPVs. Moreover, it was confirmed through biomarker expression analysis via immunodetection and/or quantitative PCR from mRNA and miRNA that the 16E7-modified engrafted skin shares molecular features with human HPV-associated pretumoral and tumoral lesions. Finally, our findings indicate a decrease of the in vitro capacity of HPV5 E7 to reduce pRb levels in vivo, possibly explaining the phenotypical differences when compared with 16E7-grafts. Our model seems to be a valuable platform for basic research into HPV oncogenesis and preclinical testing of HPV-associated antitumor therapies.This work was supported by Comunidad Autonoma de Madrid (Oncocycle S2006/BIO-0232), by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion (ISCIII-RETIC RD06/0020 and SAF2008-00121), and by Fundación Sandra Ibarra. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Intrahepatic cholestasis in subclinical and overt hyperthyroidism: two case reports

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Non-specific abnormalities in liver function tests might accompany the clinical course of hyperthyroidism. Hyperthyroidism can cause the elevation of hepatic enzymes and bilirubin. Jaundice is rare in overt hyperthyroidism, especially in subclinical hyperthyroidism. On the other hand, the use of anti-thyroid drugs has rarely been associated with toxic hepatitis and cholestatic jaundice.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>Here we present two cases of cholestasis that accompanied two distinct forms of clinical hyperthyroidism. The first patient had a clinical presentation of severe cholestasis in the absence of congestive failure related to hyperthyroidism. The second case had developed intrahepatic cholestasis in the presence of subclinical hyperthyroidism, and improved with rifampicin treatment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Hyperthyroidism should be a consideration in non-specific liver dysfunction.</p