Effects of density, species interactions, and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of British bird communities

Our knowledge of the factors affecting species abundances is mainly based on time-series analyses of a few well-studied species at single or few localities, but we know little about whether results from such analyses can be extrapolated to the community level. We apply a joint species distribution model to long-term time-series data on British bird communities to examine the relative contribution of intra- and interspecific density dependence at different spatial scales, as well as the influence of environmental stochasticity, to spatiotemporal interspecific variation in abundance. Intraspecific density dependence has the major structuring effect on these bird communities. In addition, environmental fluctuations affect spatiotemporal differences in abundance. In contrast, species interactions had a minor impact on variation in abundance. Thus, important drivers of single-species dynamics are also strongly affecting dynamics of communities in time and space

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

The Danger of Having All Your Eggs in One Basket—Winter Crash of the Re-Introduced Przewalski's Horses in the Mongolian Gobi

Large mammals re-introduced into harsh and unpredictable environments are vulnerable to stochastic effects, particularly in times of global climate change. The Mongolian Gobi is home to several rare large ungulates such as re-introduced Przewalski's horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus), but also to a millennium-old semi-nomadic livestock herding culture

Buying Years to Extinction: Is Compensatory Mitigation for Marine Bycatch a Sufficient Conservation Measure for Long-Lived Seabirds?

Along the lines of the ‘polluter pays principle’, it has recently been proposed that the local long-line fishing industry should fund eradication of terrestrial predators at seabird breeding colonies, as a compensatory measure for the bycatch caused by the fishing activity. The measure is economically sound, but a quantitative and reliable test of its biological efficacy has never been conducted. Here, we investigated the demographic consequences of predator eradication for Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, breeding in the Mediterranean, using a population model that integrates demographic rates estimated from individual life-history information with experimental measures of predation and habitat structure. We found that similar values of population growth rate can be obtained by different combinations of habitat characteristics, predator abundance and adult mortality, which explains the persistence of shearwater colonies in islands with introduced predators. Even so, given the empirically obtained values of survival, all combinations of predator abundance and habitat characteristics projected a decline in shearwater numbers. Perturbation analyses indicated that the value and the sensitivity of shearwater population growth rates were affected by all covariates considered and their interactions. A decrease in rat abundance delivered only a small increase in the population growth rate, whereas a change in adult survival (a parameter independent of rat abundance) had the strongest impact on population dynamics. When adult survival is low, rat eradication would allow us to “buy” years before extinction but does not reverse the process. Rat eradication can therefore be seen as an emergency measure if threats on adult survival are eliminated in the medium-term period. For species with low fecundity and long life expectancy, our results suggest that rat control campaigns are not a sufficient, self-standing measure to compensate the biological toll of long-line fisheries

Diversification across an altitudinal gradient in the Tiny Greenbul (Phyllastrephus debilis) from the Eastern Arc Mountains of Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Eastern Arc Mountains of Africa have become one of the focal systems with which to explore the patterns and mechanisms of diversification among montane species and populations. One unresolved question is the extent to which populations inhabiting montane forest interact with those of adjacent lowland forest abutting the coast of eastern Africa. The Tiny Greenbul (<it>Phyllastephus debilis</it>) represents the only described bird species within the Eastern Arc/coastal forest mosaic, which is polytypic across an altitudinal gradient: the subspecies <it>albigula </it>(green head) is distributed in the montane Usambara and Nguru Mountains whereas the subspecies <it>rabai </it>(grey head) is found in Tanzanian lowland and foothill forest. Using a combination of morphological and genetic data, we aim to establish if the pattern of morphological differentiation in the Tiny Greenbul (<it>Phyllastrephus debilis</it>) is the result of disruptive selection along an altitudinal gradient or a consequence of secondary contact following population expansion of two differentiated lineages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found significant biometric differences between the lowland (<it>rabai</it>) and montane (<it>albigula</it>) populations in Tanzania. The differences in shape are coupled with discrete differences in the coloration of the underparts. Using multi-locus data gathered from 124 individuals, we show that lowland and montane birds form two distinct genetic lineages. The divergence between the two forms occurred between 2.4 and 3.1 Myrs ago.</p> <p>Our coalescent analyses suggest that limited gene flow, mostly from the subspecies <it>rabai </it>to <it>albigula</it>, is taking place at three mid-altitude localities, where lowland and montane rainforest directly abut. The extent of this introgression appears to be limited and is likely a consequence of the recent expansion of <it>rabai </it>further inland.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The clear altitudinal segregation in morphology found within the Tiny Greenbul is the result of secondary contact of two highly differentiated lineages rather than disruptive selection in plumage pattern across an altitudinal gradient. Based on our results, we recommend <it>albigula </it>be elevated to species rank.</p