Uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data

Uncertainty in conceptual model structure and in environmental data is of essential interest when dealing with uncertainty in water resources management. To make quantification of uncertainty possible is it necessary to identify and characterise the uncertainty in geological and hydrogeological data. This paper discusses a range of available techniques to describe the uncertainty related to geological model structure and scale of support. Literature examples on uncertainty in hydrogeological variables such as saturated hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, effective porosity and dispersivity are given. Field data usually have a spatial and temporal scale of support that is different from the one on which numerical models for water resources management operate. Uncertainty in hydrogeological data variables is characterised and assessed within the methodological framework of the HarmoniRiB classification

Measurement of the branching ratio for beta-delayed alpha decay of 16N

While the 12C(a,g)16O reaction plays a central role in nuclear astrophysics, the cross section at energies relevant to hydrostatic helium burning is too small to be directly measured in the laboratory. The beta-delayed alpha spectrum of 16N can be used to constrain the extrapolation of the E1 component of the S-factor; however, with this approach the resulting S-factor becomes strongly correlated with the assumed beta-alpha branching ratio. We have remeasured the beta-alpha branching ratio by implanting 16N ions in a segmented Si detector and counting the number of beta-alpha decays relative to the number of implantations. Our result, 1.49(5)e-5, represents a 24% increase compared to the accepted value and implies an increase of 14% in the extrapolated S-factor

Complete Inactivation of Sebum-Producing Genes Parallels the Loss of Sebaceous Glands in Cetacea

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)Genomes are dynamic biological units, with processes of gene duplication and loss triggering evolutionary novelty. The mammalian skin provides a remarkable case study on the occurrence of adaptive morphological innovations. Skin sebaceous glands (SGs), for instance, emerged in the ancestor of mammals serving pivotal roles, such as lubrication, waterproofing, immunity, and thermoregulation, through the secretion of sebum, a complex mixture of various neutral lipids such as triacylglycerol, free fatty acids, wax esters, cholesterol, and squalene. Remarkably, SGs are absent in a few mammalian lineages, including the iconic Cetacea. We investigated the evolution of the key molecular components responsible for skin sebum production: Dgat2l6, Awat1, Awat2, Elovl3, Mogat3, and Fabp9. We show that all analyzed genes have been rendered nonfunctional in Cetacea species (toothed and baleen whales). Transcriptomic analysis, including a novel skin transcriptome from blue whale, supports gene inactivation. The conserved mutational pattern found in most analyzed genes, indicates that pseudogenization events took place prior to the diversification of modern Cetacea lineages. Genome and skin transcriptome analysis of the common hippopotamus highlighted the convergent loss of a subset of sebum-producing genes, notably Awat1 and Mogat3. Partial loss profiles were also detected in non-Cetacea aquatic mammals, such as the Florida manatee, and in terrestrial mammals displaying specialized skin phenotypes such as the African elephant, white rhinoceros and pig. Our findings reveal a unique landscape of “gene vestiges” in the Cetacea sebum-producing compartment, with limited gene loss observed in other mammalian lineages: suggestive of specific adaptations or specializations of skin lipids.This work was supported by Project No. 031342 cofinanced by COMPETE 2020, Portugal 2020 and the European Union through the ERDF, and by Fundac¸a~o para a Cie^ncia e a Tecnologia through national funds. R.R.F. thanks the Danish National Research Foundation for its support of the Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate (grant DNRF96). We acknowledge the various Cetacea genome consortiums for genome sequencing and assemblies. We also thank Gısli Vikingsson at the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute in Iceland for lending us the Larsen gun and to North Sailing whale watching for the use of their zodiac.Peer Reviewe

Modeling subsurface hydrology in floodplains

Evans would also like to acknowledge the generous funding provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the University of St Andrews 600 Fund, without which this work would not have been possible. Singer was supported by funding from NSF EAR #700555. The data output files are hosted online by the NERC Environmental Information Data Centre [Evans et al., 2018].Soil-moisture patterns in floodplains are highly dynamic, owing to the complex relationships between soil properties, climatic conditions at the surface, and the position of the water table. Given this complexity, along with climate change scenarios in many regions, there is a need for a model to investigate the implications of different conditions on water availability to riparian vegetation. We present a model, HaughFlow, which is able to predict coupled water movement in the vadose and phreatic zones of hydraulically connected floodplains. Model output was calibrated and evaluated at 6 sites in Australia to identify key patterns in subsurface hydrology. This study identifies the importance of the capillary fringe in vadose zone hydrology due to its water storage capacity and creation of conductive pathways. Following peaks in water table elevation, water can be stored in the capillary fringe for up to months (depending on the soil properties). This water can provide a critical resource for vegetation that is unable to access the water table. When water table peaks coincide with heavy rainfall events, the capillary fringe can support saturation of the entire soil profile. HaughFlow is used to investigate the water availability to riparian vegetation, producing daily output of water content in the soil over decadal time periods within different depth ranges. These outputs can be summarised to support scientific investigations of plant-water relations, as well as in management applications.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rotational excitation of the Hoyle state in 12C

12C is synthesised in stars by fusion of three α particles. This process occurs through a resonance in the 12C nucleus, famously known as the Hoyle state. In this state, the 12C nucleus exists as a cluster of α particles. The state is the band-head for a rotational band with the 2+ rotational excitation predicted in the energy region 9 - 11 MeV. This rotational excitation can affect the triple-α process reaction rate by more than an order of magnitude at high temperatures (109 K). Depending on the energy of the resonance, the knowledge of the state can also help determine the structure of the Hoyle state. In the work presented here, the state of interest is populated by beta decay of radioactive 12N ion beam delivered by the IGISOL facility at JYFL, Jyväskylä

Use of expert elicitation to assign weights to climate and hydrological models in climate impact studies

Various methods are available for assessing uncertainties in climate impact studies. Among such methods, model weighting by expert elicitation is a practical way to provide a weighted ensemble of models for specific real-world impacts. The aim is to decrease the influence of improbable models in the results and easing the decision-making process. In this study both climate and hydrological models are analysed, and the result of a research experiment is presented using model weighting with the participation of six climate model experts and six hydrological model experts. For the experiment, seven climate models are a priori selected from a larger EURO-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - European Domain) ensemble of climate models, and three different hydrological models are chosen for each of the three European river basins. The model weighting is based on qualitative evaluation by the experts for each of the selected models based on a training material that describes the overall model structure and literature about climate models and the performance of hydrological models for the present period. The expert elicitation process follows a three-stage approach, with two individual rounds of elicitation of probabilities and a final group consensus, where the experts are separated into two different community groups: a climate and a hydrological modeller group. The dialogue reveals that under the conditions of the study, most climate modellers prefer the equal weighting of ensemble members, whereas hydrological-impact modellers in general are more open for assigning weights to different models in a multi-model ensemble, based on model performance and model structure. Climate experts are more open to exclude models, if obviously flawed, than to put weights on selected models in a relatively small ensemble. The study shows that expert elicitation can be an efficient way to assign weights to different hydrological models and thereby reduce the uncertainty in climate impact. However, for the climate model ensemble, comprising seven models, the elicitation in the format of this study could only re-establish a uniform weight between climate models

Relative magnitudes of sources of uncertainty in assessing climate change impacts on water supply security for the southern Adelaide water supply system

The sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on runoff are increasingly well recognized; however, translating these uncertainties to urban water security has received less attention in the literature. Furthermore, runoff cannot be used as a surrogate for water supply security when studying the impacts of climate change due to the nonlinear transformations in modeling water supply and the effects of additional uncertainties, such as demand. Consequently, this study presents a scenario-based sensitivity analysis to qualitatively rank the relative contributions of major sources of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change on water supply security through time. This can then be used by water authorities to guide water planning and management decisions. The southern system of Adelaide, South Australia, is used to illustrate the methodology for which water supply system reliability is examined across six greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, seven general circulation models, six demand projections, and 1000 stochastic rainfall time series. Results indicate the order of the relative contributions of uncertainty changes through time; however, demand is always the greatest source of uncertainty and GHG emissions scenarios the least. In general, reliability decreases over the planning horizon, illustrating the need for additional water sources or demand mitigation, while increasing uncertainty with time suggests flexible management is required to ensure future supply security with minimum regret.F.L. Paton, H.R. Maier and G.C. Dand

Structure Studies of 13Be^{13}\text{Be} from the 12^{12}Be(d,p) reaction in inverse kinematics on a solid deuteron target

The low-lying structure of $^{13}$Be has remained an enigma for decades. Despite numerous experimental and theoretical studies, large inconsistencies remain. Being both unbound, and one neutron away from $^{14}$Be, the heaviest bound beryllium nucleus, $^{13}$Be is difficult to study through simple reactions with weak radioactive ion beams or more complex reactions with stable-ion beams. Here, we present the results of a study using the $^{12}$Be(d,p)$^{13}$Be reaction in inverse kinematics using a 9.5~MeV per nucleon $^{12}$Be beam from the ISAC-II facility. The solid deuteron target of IRIS was used to achieve an increased areal thickness compared to conventional deuterated polyethylene targets. The Q-value spectrum below -4.4~MeV was analyzed using a Bayesian method with GEANT4 simulations. A three-point angular distribution with the same Q-value gate was fit with a mixture of $s$- and $p$-wave, $s$- and $d$-wave, or pure $p$-wave transfer. The Q-value spectrum was also compared with GEANT simulations obtained using the energies and widths of states reported in four previous works. It was found that our results are incompatible with works that revealed a wide $5/2^+$ resonance but shows better agreement with ones that reported a narrower width.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure