Mean Field Voter Model of Election to the House of Representatives in Japan

In this study, we propose a mechanical model of a plurality election based on a mean field voter model. We assume that there are three candidates in each electoral district, i.e., one from the ruling party, one from the main opposition party, and one from other political parties. The voters are classified as fixed supporters and herding (floating) voters with ratios of $1-p$ and $p$, respectively. Fixed supporters make decisions based on their information and herding voters make the same choice as another randomly selected voter. The equilibrium vote-share probability density of herding voters follows a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the composition of fixed supporters in each electoral district and $p$ using data from elections to the House of Representatives in Japan (43rd to 47th). The spatial inhomogeneity of fixed supporters explains the long-range spatial and temporal correlations. The estimated values of $p$ are close to the estimates obtained from a survey.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Why bad ideas are a good idea

What would happen if we wrote an Abstract that was the exact opposite of what the paper described? This is a bad idea, but it makes us think more carefully than usual about properties of Abstracts. This paper describes BadIdeas, a collection of techniques that uses ???bad??? or ???silly??? ideas to inspire creativity, explore design domains and teach critical thinking in interaction design. We describe the approach, some evidence, how it is performed in practice and experience in its use.published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewe

Problem structuring interventions in practice?

This is the final versionThe derivation of generic constitutive rules for Problem Structuring Methods (PSMs) was motivated by the observation of everyday problem structuring in organisations (Yearworth & White, 2014). The existence of a ‘problem structuring mentality’ naturally provokes questions about appropriate underlying theory. There is already a nexus around the practice of problem structuring and theorising about it and social practice theory offers a way forward (Ormerod, 2008, 2014, 2016). This might provide the means for connecting research into OR practice with wider debates in the management literature. The workshop nature of PSM engagements provides a unique insight into the particular place and particular time of management decision making when dealing with messy problems. We define a research agenda, set out some provocative research questions and discuss their implications for OR practiceEuropean Commissio

Ecological indicators for abandoned mines, Phase 1: Review of the literature

Mine waters have been identified as a significant issue in the majority of Environment Agency draft River Basin Management Plans. They are one of the largest drivers for chemical pollution in the draft Impact Assessment for the Water Framework Directive (WFD), with significant failures of environmental quality standards (EQS) for metals (particularly Cd, Pb, Zn, Cu, Fe) in many rivers linked to abandoned mines. Existing EQS may be overprotective of aquatic life which may have adapted over centuries of exposure. This study forms part of a larger project to investigate the ecological impact of metals in rivers, to develop water quality targets (alternative objectives for the WFD) for aquatic ecosystems impacted by long-term mining pollution. The report reviews literature on EQS failures, metal effects on aquatic biota and effects of water chemistry, and uses this information to consider further work. A preliminary assessment of water quality and biology data for 87 sites across Gwynedd and Ceredigion (Wales) shows that existing Environment Agency water quality and biology data could be used to establish statistical relations between chemical variables and metrics of ecological quality. Visual representation and preliminary statistical analyses show that invertebrate diversity declines with increasing zinc concentration. However, the situation is more complex because the effects of other metals are not readily apparent. Furthermore, pH and aluminium also affect streamwater invertebrates, making it difficult to tease out toxicity due to individual mine-derived metals. The most characteristic feature of the plant communities of metal-impacted systems is a reduction in diversity, compared to that found in comparable unimpacted streams. Some species thrive in the presence of heavy metals, presumably because they are able to develop metal tolerance, whilst others consistently disappear. Effects are, however, confounded by water chemistry, particularly pH. Tolerant species are spread across a number of divisions of photosynthetic organisms, though green algae, diatoms and blue-green algae are usually most abundant, often thriving in the absence of competition and/or grazing. Current UK monitoring techniques focus on community composition and, whilst these provide a sampling and analytical framework for studies of metal impacts, the metrics are not sensitive to these impacts. There is scope for developing new metrics, based on community-level analyses and for looking at morphological variations common in some taxa at elevated metal concentrations. On the whole, community-based metrics are recommended, as these are easier to relate to ecological status definitions. With respect to invertebrates and fish, metals affect individuals, population and communities but sensitivity varies among species, life stages, sexes, trophic groups and with body condition. Acclimation or adaptation may cause varying sensitivity even within species. Ecosystem-scale effects, for example on ecological function, are poorly understood. Effects vary between metals such as cadmium, copper, lead, chromium, zinc and nickel in order of decreasing toxicity. Aluminium is important in acidified headwaters. Biological effects depend on speciation, toxicity, availability, mixtures, complexation and exposure conditions, for example discharge (flow). Current water quality monitoring is unlikely to detect short-term episodic increases in metal concentrations or evaluate the bioavailability of elevated metal concentrations in sediments. These factors create uncertainty in detecting ecological impairment in metal-impacted ecosystems. Moreover, most widely used biological indicators for UK freshwaters were developed for other pressures and none distinguishes metal impacts from other causes of impairment. Key ecological needs for better regulation and management of metals in rivers include: i) models relating metal data to ecological data that better represent influences on metal toxicity; ii) biodiagnostic indices to reflect metal effects; iii) better methods to identify metal acclimation or adaptation among sensitive taxa; iv) better investigative procedures to isolate metal effects from other pressures. Laboratory data on the effects of water chemistry on cationic metal toxicity and bioaccumulation show that a number of chemical parameters, particularly pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and major cations (Na, Mg, K, Ca) exert a major influence on the toxicity and/or bioaccumulation of cationic metals. The biotic ligand model (BLM) provides a conceptual framework for understanding these water chemistry effects as a combination of the influence of chemical speciation, and metal uptake by organisms in competition with H+ and other cations. In some cases where the BLM cannot describe effects, empirical bioavailable models have been successfully used. Laboratory data on the effects of metal mixtures across different water chemistries are sparse, with implications for transferring understanding to mining-impacted sites in the field where mixture effects are likely. The available field data, although relatively sparse, indicate that water chemistry influences metal effects on aquatic ecosystems. This occurs through complexation reactions, notably involving dissolved organic matter and metals such as Al, Cu and Pb. Secondly, because bioaccumulation and toxicity are partly governed by complexation reactions, competition effects among metals, and between metals and H+, give rise to dependences upon water chemistry. There is evidence that combinations of metals are active in the field; the main study conducted so far demonstrated the combined effects of Al and Zn, and suggested, less certainly, that Cu and H+ can also contribute. Chemical speciation is essential to interpret and predict observed effects in the field. Speciation results need to be combined with a model that relates free ion concentrations to toxic effect. Understanding the toxic effects of heavy metals derived from abandoned mines requires the simultaneous consideration of the acidity-related components Al and H+. There are a number of reasons why organisms in waters affected by abandoned mines may experience different levels of metal toxicity than in the laboratory. This could lead to discrepancies between actual field behaviour and that predicted by EQS derived from laboratory experiments, as would be applied within the WFD. The main factors to consider are adaptation/acclimation, water chemistry, and the effects of combinations of metals. Secondary effects are metals in food, metals supplied by sediments, and variability in stream flows. Two of the most prominent factors, namely adaptation/ acclimation and bioavailability, could justify changes in EQS or the adoption of an alternative measure of toxic effects in the field. Given that abandoned mines are widespread in England and Wales, and the high cost of their remediation to meet proposed WFD EQS criteria, further research into the question is clearly justified. Although ecological communities of mine-affected streamwaters might be over-protected by proposed WFD EQS, there are some conditions under which metals emanating from abandoned mines definitely exert toxic effects on biota. The main issue is therefore the reliable identification of chemical conditions that are unacceptable and comparison of those conditions with those predicted by WFD EQS. If significant differences can convincingly be demonstrated, the argument could be made for alternative standards for waters affected by abandoned mines. Therefore in our view, the immediate research priority is to improve the quantification of metal effects under field circumstances. Demonstration of dose-response relationships, based on metal mixtures and their chemical speciation, and the use of better biological tools to detect and diagnose community-level impairment, would provide the necessary scientific information

The "witness anonymity" and "investigation anonymity" provisions

This article offers an analysis of the creation of statutory powers to allow witnesses to give evidence anonymously. The latest provisions are those in the Coroners and Justice Act 2009 replacing the emergency temporary legislation: Criminal Evidence (Witness Anonymity) Act 2008. Consideration is given to that Act, its legislative history and case law. Examination of the new powers for investigation anonymity orders suggests that these are likely to be of symbolic rather than practical significance

Cell-selective modulation of the Drosophila neuromuscular system by a neuropeptide

Neuropeptides can modulate physiological properties of neurons in a cell-specific manner. The present work examines whether a neuropeptide can also modulate muscle tissue in a cell-specific manner, using identified muscle cells in third instar larvae of fruit flies. DPKQDFMRFa, a modulatory peptide in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, has been shown to enhance transmitter release from motor neurons and to elicit contractions by a direct effect on muscle cells. We report that DPKQDFMRFa causes a nifedipine-sensitive drop in input resistance in some muscle cells (6 and 7) but not others (12 and 13). The peptide also increased the amplitude of nerve-evoked contractions and compound excitatory junctional potentials (EJPs) to a greater degree in muscle cells 6 and 7 than 12 and 13. Knocking down FMRFa receptor (FR) expression separately in nerve and muscle indicate that both presynaptic and postsynaptic FR expression contributed to the enhanced contractions, but EJP enhancement was due mainly to presynaptic expression. Muscle-ablation showed that DPKQDFMRFa induced contractions and enhanced nerve-evoked contractions more strongly in muscle cells 6 and 7 than cells 12 and 13. In situ hybridization indicated that FR expression was significantly greater in muscle cells 6 and 7 than 12 and 13. Taken together, these results indicate that DPKQDFMRFa can elicit cell-selective effects on muscle fibres. The ability of neuropeptides to work in a cell-selective manner on neurons and muscle cells may help explain why so many peptides are encoded in invertebrate and vertebrate genomes

High prevalence of TB disease in contacts of adults with extrapulmonary TB

UK guidelines no longer recommend routine screening of household contacts of adult patients with extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). From 27 March 2012 to 28 June 2016, we investigated the prevalence of active TB disease in household contacts of 1023 EPTB index cases in North West England, and compared estimates with: published new entrant migrant screening programme prevalence (~147/100 000 person-years); London-based contact screening data (700/100 000 contacts screened); and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) new entrant TB screening thresholds (TB prevalence >40/100 000 people). Active TB disease prevalence in EPTB contacts was 440/100 000 contacts screened, similar to UK new entrant screening programmes, London EPTB contact prevalence and >10 times NICE’s threshold for new entrant screening. The decision to no longer recommend routine screening of EPTB contacts should be re-evaluated and cost-effectiveness analyses of screening strategies for EPTB contacts should be performed

Comment on "Prediction of lattice constant in cubic perovskites"

In a recent work by Jiang et al. [J. Phys. Chem. Solids 67 (2006) 1531-1536], the interrelationship between lattice constant, ionic radii and tolerance factor of cubic perovskites has been established and an empirical equation was obtained. However, the assumption of incorrect ionic coordination led to an incorrect mathematical expression even though the average relative errors between predicted and observed lattice constants of 132 materials were below 1%. Here, corrected coefficients for that empirical expression are obtained, which would likely be useful for investigation of general perovskite materials

A quantum framework for likelihood ratios

The ability to calculate precise likelihood ratios is fundamental to many STEM areas, such as decision-making theory, biomedical science, and engineering. However, there is no assumption-free statistical methodology to achieve this. For instance, in the absence of data relating to covariate overlap, the widely used Bayes’ theorem either defaults to the marginal probability driven “naive Bayes’ classifier”, or requires the use of compensatory expectation-maximization techniques. Equally, the use of alternative statistical approaches, such as multivariate logistic regression, may be confounded by other axiomatic conditions, e.g., low levels of co-linearity. This article takes an information-theoretic approach in developing a new statistical formula for the calculation of likelihood ratios based on the principles of quantum entanglement. In doing so, it is argued that this quantum approach demonstrates: that the likelihood ratio is a real quality of statistical systems; that the naive Bayes’ classifier is a special case of a more general quantum mechanical expression; and that only a quantum mechanical approach can overcome the axiomatic limitations of classical statistics