Macroeconomic Regimes

We estimate a New-Keynesian macro model accommodating regime-switching behavior in monetary policy and in macro shocks. Key to our estimation strategy is the use of survey-based expectations for inflation and output. Output and inflation shocks shift to the low volatility regime around 1985 and 1990, respectively. However, we also identify multiple shifts between accommodating and active monetary policy regimes, which play an as important role as shock volatility in driving the volatility of the macro variables. We provide new estimates of the onset and demise of the Great Moderation and quantify the relative role played by macro-shocks and monetary policy. The estimated rational expectations model exhibits indeterminacy in the mean square stability sense, mainly because monetary policy is excessively passive

European Financial Market Integration: A Closer Look at Government Bonds in Eurozone Countries

The European Union made a number of steps not least of them the introduction of a common currency to foster the integration of the European financial markets. A number of papers have tried to gauge the degree of integration for various financial markets looking at the convergence of interest rates. A common finding is that government bond markets are quite well integrated. In this paper stochastic Kernel density estimates are used to take a closer look at the dynamics that drive the process of interest rate convergence. The main finding is that countries with large initial deviations from the mean interest rate do indeed converge. Interestingly the candidates least suspected namely the countries initially with interest rates at the mean level show a pattern of slight divergence

Air Travel Is Associated with Intracontinental Spread of Dengue Virus Serotypes 1–3 in Brazil

Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil

Postglacial expansion of the arctic keystone copepod calanus glacialis

Calanus glacialis, a major contributor to zooplankton biomass in the Arctic shelf seas, is a key link between primary production and higher trophic levels that may be sensitive to climate warming. The aim of this study was to explore genetic variation in contemporary populations of this species to infer possible changes during the Quaternary period, and to assess its population structure in both space and time. Calanus glacialis was sampled in the fjords of Spitsbergen (Hornsund and Kongsfjorden) in 2003, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2012. The sequence of a mitochondrial marker, belonging to the ND5 gene, selected for the study was 1249 base pairs long and distinguished 75 unique haplotypes among 140 individuals that formed three main clades. There was no detectable pattern in the distribution of haplotypes by geographic distance or over time. Interestingly, a Bayesian skyline plot suggested that a 1000-fold increase in population size occurred approximately 10,000 years before present, suggesting a species expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum.GAME from the National Science Centre, the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education Iuventus Plus [IP2014 050573]; FCT-PT [CCMAR/Multi/04326/2013]; [2011/03/B/NZ8/02876

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.status: publishe

Phylogeography of Japanese encephalitis virus:genotype is associated with climate

The circulation of vector-borne zoonotic viruses is largely determined by the overlap in the geographical distributions of virus-competent vectors and reservoir hosts. What is less clear are the factors influencing the distribution of virus-specific lineages. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is the most important etiologic agent of epidemic encephalitis worldwide, and is primarily maintained between vertebrate reservoir hosts (avian and swine) and culicine mosquitoes. There are five genotypes of JEV: GI-V. In recent years, GI has displaced GIII as the dominant JEV genotype and GV has re-emerged after almost 60 years of undetected virus circulation. JEV is found throughout most of Asia, extending from maritime Siberia in the north to Australia in the south, and as far as Pakistan to the west and Saipan to the east. Transmission of JEV in temperate zones is epidemic with the majority of cases occurring in summer months, while transmission in tropical zones is endemic and occurs year-round at lower rates. To test the hypothesis that viruses circulating in these two geographical zones are genetically distinct, we applied Bayesian phylogeographic, categorical data analysis and phylogeny-trait association test techniques to the largest JEV dataset compiled to date, representing the envelope (E) gene of 487 isolates collected from 12 countries over 75 years. We demonstrated that GIII and the recently emerged GI-b are temperate genotypes likely maintained year-round in northern latitudes, while GI-a and GII are tropical genotypes likely maintained primarily through mosquito-avian and mosquito-swine transmission cycles. This study represents a new paradigm directly linking viral molecular evolution and climate

Quantifying predictors for the spatial diffusion of avian influenza virus in China

BACKGROUND: Avian influenza virus (AIV) causes both severe outbreaks and endemic disease among poultry and has caused sporadic human infections in Asia, furthermore the routes of transmission in avian species between geographic regions can be numerous and complex. Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China. RESULTS: We found that the Central area and Pan-Pearl River Delta were the two main sources of AIV diffusion, while the East Coast areas especially the Yangtze River delta, were the major targets of viral invasion. Next we investigated the extent to which economic, agricultural, environmental and climatic regional data was predictive of viral diffusion by fitting phylogeographic discrete trait models using generalised linear models. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlighted that the economic-agricultural predictors, especially the poultry population density and the number of farm product markets, are the key determinants of spatial diffusion of AIV in China; high human density and freight transportation are also important predictors of high rates of viral transmission; Climate features (e.g. temperature) were correlated to the viral invasion in the destination to some degree; while little or no impacts were found from natural environment factors (such as surface water coverage). This study uncovers the risk factors and enhances our understanding of the spatial dynamics of AIV in bird populations. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0845-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Longitudinal Study of the Dynamics of Vaginal Microflora during Two Consecutive Menstrual Cycles

Although the vaginal microflora (VMF) has been well studied, information on the fluctuation of the different bacterial species throughout the menstrual cycle and the information on events preceding the presence of disturbed VMF is still very limited. Documenting the dynamics of the VMF during the menstrual cycle might provide better insights. In this study, we assessed the presence of different Lactobacillus species in relation to the BV associated species during the menstrual cycle, assessed the influence of the menstrual cycle on the different categories of vaginal microflora and assessed possible causes, such as menstruation and sexual intercourse, of VMF disturbance. To our knowledge, this is the first longitudinal study in which swabs and Gram stains were available for each day of two consecutive menstrual cycles, whereby 8 grades of VMF were distinguished by Gram stain analysis, and whereby the swabs were cultured every 7(th) day and identification of the bacterial isolates was carried out with a molecular technique.status: publishe