Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain

The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how lay people perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as “objectively” certain) vs. informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating “subjective” uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most importantly, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports

Characteristics of the case mix, organisation and delivery in cancer palliative care: a challenge for good-quality research

Objectives: Palliative care (PC) services and patients differ across countries. Data on PC delivery paired with medical and self-reported data are seldom reported. Aims were to describe (1) PC organisation and services in participating centres and (2) characteristics of patients in PC programmes. Methods: This was an international prospective multicentre study with a single web-based survey on PC organisation, services and academics and patients' self-reported symptoms collected at baseline and monthly thereafter, with concurrent registrations of medical data by healthcare providers. Participants were patients ≥18 enrolled in a PC programme. Results: 30 centres in 12 countries participated; 24 hospitals, 4 hospices, 1 nursing home, 1 home-care service. 22 centres (73%) had PC in-house teams and inpatient and outpatient services. 20 centres (67%) had integral chemotherapy/radiotherapy services, and most (28/30) had access to general medical or oncology inpatient units. Physicians or nurses were present 24 hours/7 days in 50% and 60% of centres, respectively. 50 centres (50%) had professorships, and 12 centres (40%) had full-time/part-time research staff. Data were available on 1698 patients: 50% females; median age 66 (range 21–97); median Karnofsky score 70 (10–100); 1409 patients (83%) had metastatic/disseminated disease; tiredness and pain in the past 24 hours were most prominent. During follow-up, 1060 patients (62%) died; 450 (44%) <3 months from inclusion and 701 (68%) within 6 months. ANOVA and χ2 tests showed that hospice/nursing home patients were significantly older, had poorer performance status and had shorter survival compared with hospital-patients (p<.0.001). Conclusions: There is a wide variation in PC services and patients across Europe. Detailed characterisation is the first step in improving PC services and research. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01362816

School wellbeing among children in grades 1 - 10

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Determinants of children's school wellbeing have not been extensively studied. In this cross-sectional study of school children we assessed how factors assumed to promote wellbeing and factors assumed to adversely influence wellbeing were associated with self-reported wellbeing in school.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Children from five schools, 230 boys and 189 girls in grades 1-10, responded to the same set of questions. We used proportional odds logistic regression to assess the associations of promoting and restraining factors with school wellbeing.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a multivariable analysis, degree of school wellbeing in boys was strongly and positively related to enjoying school work (odds ratio, 3.84, 95% CI 2.38 to 6.22) and receiving necessary help (odds ratio, 3.55, 95% CI 2.17 to 5.80) from teachers. In girls, being bothered during lessons was strongly and negatively associated with school wellbeing (odds ratio, 0.43, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.85).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Different factors may determine school wellbeing in boys and girls, but for both genders, factors relevant for lessons may be more important than factors related to recess. Especially in boys, the student-teacher relationship may be of particular importance.</p

Awareness of demands and unfairness and the importance of connectedness and security : teenage girls’ lived experiences of their everyday lives

In recent years, a number of studies have demonstrated that stress and mental health problems have increased among adolescents and especially among girls, although little is still known concerning what girls experience in their everyday lives. The aim of this study was to describe the phenomenon of teenage girls’ everyday lives, as experienced by the girls themselves. A phenomenological approach of reflective lifeworld research was used, and the findings are based on eight qualitative interviews with girls aged 13–16 years. The essence of teenage girls’ everyday lives as experienced by the girls themselves can be described as consciousness regarding demands and unfairness and regarding the importance of connectedness and security. The girls are aware of the demands of appearance and success, and they are conscious of the gender differences in school and in the media that affect them. The girls are also conscious about the meaning of connectedness with friends and family, as well as the importance of the security of their confidence in friends and feeling safe where they stay. If teenage girls feel connected and secure, protective factors in the form of manageability and meaningfulness can act as a counterweight to the demands and unfairness of everyday life. For professionals who work with teenage girls, the results from this study can be important in their work to support these girls

Religiousness and Social Support: A Study in Secular Norway

Previous research has shown that religiousness is related to social support, but most studies on this subject have been conducted in highly religious contexts. In the secular culture of Norway, we investigated the level of perceived social support among religious and non-religious individuals using the scale from the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey. Of the 3,000 randomly selected persons aged 18–75 years, 653 (22 %) participated in this cross-sectional postal questionnaire study in 2009. The results showed that the association between religiousness and social support differed by age, and was moderated by gender and by one’s view of life enrichment. Among older adults (60–75 years), non-religious people reported higher levels on all five dimensions of social support compared to religious people, and for affectionate support, positive social interaction and tangible support this relationship depended on high view of life enrichment. In contrast, no differences in social support were seen among middle aged adults (40–59 years). Gender differences in social support were found in the younger adults (18–39 years), as religious men reported more tangible and emotional support compared to non-religious men, while the opposite was found for women. Results are discussed based on previous empirical findings on religiousness and social support, as well as the role of religiousness in society