Relationships of surface air temperature anomalies over Europe to persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to heat waves

Heat waves are among natural hazards with the most severe consequences for human society, including pronounced mortality impacts in mid-latitudes. Recent studies have hypothesized that the enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation may affect surface climatic extremes, mainly the frequency and severity of heat waves. In this paper we examine relationships between the persistence of the Hess-Brezowsky circulation types conducive to summer heat waves and air temperature anomalies at stations over most of the European continent. We also evaluate differences between temperature anomalies during late and early stages of warm circulation types in all seasons. Results show that more persistent circulation patterns tend to enhance the severity of heat waves and support more pronounced temperature anomalies. Recent sharply rising trends in positive temperature extremes over Europe may be related to the greater persistence of the circulation types, and if similar changes towards enhanced persistence affect other mid-latitudinal regions, analogous consequences and implications for temperature extremes may be expected

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types

New perspectives on the ecology of early domestic fowl: an interdisciplinary approach.

Introduced into Europe during the Bronze- and Iron Ages as an exotic, non-native species, very little is currently understood about the origins and spread of early domestic fowl, Gallus gallus domesticus. Ecological niche modelling of extant Red Junglefowl, Gallus gallus, presents a unique opportunity to examine historical ecological implications associated with its descendant, the chicken, in early stages of domestication. We model the environmental conditions associated with Red Junglefowl populations both in south-east Asia, where the bird originates, and populations transported further afield as a consequence of human interaction. This allows us to establish the full extent of the ecological tolerance of the ancestor bird. We show that potential for suitable sets of environmental conditions for Red Junglefowl in Europe ranges from poor to limited, based on both current climate and when projecting to mid-Holocene (ca. 4000BC) climate simulations. This suggests that human intervention played a vital contribution during early domestication to ensure the future widespread success of the chicken. These conclusions offer new insights into the archaeological evidence. We identify areas in the native range as the probable location of first domestication, and not China as has been suggested. We suggest that a dispersal route into Europe via the Mediterranean offers the best ecological potential to aid survival for a recently domesticated version of this species. Identifying the environmental tolerances of Red Junglefowl may also aid future conservation of this species, now highly endangered in its true wild form

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate

The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. METHODS: Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. RESULTS: The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries

Background Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. Objectives We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. Methods Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. Results Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. Discussion We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development

Palaeogenomic analysis of black rat (Rattus rattus) reveals multiple European introductions associated with human economic history

The distribution of the black rat (Rattus rattus) has been heavily influenced by its association with humans. The dispersal history of this non-native commensal rodent across Europe, however, remains poorly understood, and different introductions may have occurred during the Roman and medieval periods. Here, in order to reconstruct the population history of European black rats, we generated a de novo genome assembly of the black rat, 67 ancient black rat mitogenomes and 36 ancient nuclear genomes from sites spanning the 1st-17th centuries CE in Europe and North Africa. Analyses of mitochondrial DNA confirm that black rats were introduced into the Mediterranean and Europe from Southwest Asia. Genomic analyses of the ancient rats reveal a population turnover in temperate Europe between the 6th and 10th centuries CE, coincident with an archaeologically attested decline in the black rat population. The near disappearance and re-emergence of black rats in Europe may have been the result of the breakdown of the Roman Empire, the First Plague Pandemic, and/or post-Roman climatic cooling.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.- Results and Discussion -- The demographic history of Rattus rattus and its closely related species -- A global phylogeography of the black rat based on mitochondrial DNA -- Ancient genomes reveal the relationships of European black rats over space and time - Discussion - Method

Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk. © 2022, The Author(s).The original version of this Article contained an error in Affiliation 25, which was incorrectly given as ‘Faculty of Medicine ArqFuturo INSPER, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil’. The correct affiliation is listed below. Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil The original Article has been corrected. © The Author(s) 2022.The study was primarily supported by Grants from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre Seville (Research Contract ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654), Medical Research Council-UK (Grant ID: MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). The following individual Grants also supported this work: J.K and A.U were supported by the Czech Science Foundation, project 20-28560S. A.T was supported by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, Grant CEX2018-000794-S. V.H was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant agreement No 101032087. This work was generated using Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) information [1985–2019]

Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

Background The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995–2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.Massimo Stafoggia, Francesca K. de’ Donato, Masna Rai and Alexandra Schneider were partially supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655). Jan Kyselý and Aleš Urban were supported by the Czech Science Foundation project (22-24920S). Joana Madureira was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (grant SFRH/BPD/115112/2016). Masahiro Hashizume was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) as part of SICORP, Grant Number JPMJSC20E4. Noah Scovronick was supported by the NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (P30ES019776). South African Data were provided by Statistics South Africa, which did not have any role in conducting the study. Antonio Gasparrini was supported by the Medical Research Council-UK (Grants ID: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), the Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655)