Generalized just-in-time trace compilation using a parallel task farm in a dynamic binary translator

Dynamic Binary Translation (DBT) is the key technology behind cross-platform virtualization and allows software compiled for one Instruction Set Architecture (ISA) to be executed on a processor supporting a different ISA. Under the hood, DBT is typically implemented using Just-In-Time (JIT) compilation of frequently executed program regions, also called traces. The main challenge is translating frequently executed program regions as fast as possible into highly efficient native code. As time for JIT compilation adds to the overall execution time, the JIT compiler is often decoupled and operates in a separate thread independent from the main simulation loop to reduce the overhead of JIT compilation. In this paper we present two innovative contributions. The first contribution is a generalized trace compilation approach that considers all frequently executed paths in a program for JIT compilation

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

Development of a mango rum coulis for a Puerto Rican-style mango rum cake

People desire convenience foods such as desserts that can be easily microwaved and consumed. A microwavable Puerto Rican-style mango rum cake was developed and it was determined that a tropical fruit sauce (coulis) would improve the flavor, appearance, and texture of the cake. The objective of this research was to develop a mango rum coulis that could be drizzled over the mango rum cake. To begin the development process, research trends determined mango as a popular tropical fruit along with spiced rum being used in Puerto Rican cuisine. Initially, a mango puree and pineapple juice was reduced and then spice rum was added at the end of the process. The reduction process resulted in an unacceptable acidity level and the alcohol was cooked off while maintaining the rum flavor. The next step was to mask the acidity by testing varying amounts of cane sugar, coconut sugar, or powdered sugar. The initial formulation prior to reduction consisted of 49.1% canned mango puree, 29% pineapple juice, 11.2% sugar variant, and 10.8% spice rum. The addition of sugar resulted in a gritty texture, a caramel flavor profile, and a sweeter overall flavor profile. Due to inconsistent results, a mango rum coulis (thin fruit puree used as a sauce) was developed that could be easily frozen and then thawed to drizzle on top of the mango rum cake. Ingredients of the mango rum coulis were canned mango 60.7%, orange juice 36.4%, rum extract 5.0%, lemon juice 4.6%, xanthan gum 0.31%, cinnamon 0.30%, and clove 0.30%. The canned mango was strained twice to reduce moisture content. The functional ingredient xanthan gum stabilized the structure of the coulis through freezing and reheat and thickened the coulis. Rum extract eliminated the alcohol content, intensified the rum flavor, and widened the market to all ages. The final mango rum coulis formation had a pH of 4.6. It was determined that 30 g of coulis on one serving of cake (193 g) provided an ample coulis to cake ratio. The final mango rum coulis formulation paired well to the mango rum cake that added freshness, an all-natural sweetener, and spiced rum flavor without the alcohol. This product will appeal to the health conscious and on-the-go consumer

Development and sensory analysis of Puerto Rican-style mango rum cake

An authentic Puerto Rican mango rum cake was made with the intent of developing a microwavable dessert that could be sold as a commercial retail frozen product. To develop the cake, modifications were made to a home recipe. Modified starch and a monoglyceride were added to the cake formulation to ensure stability throughout freeze-thaw cycles and microwave reheating. A combination of C-Polar Tex 12640 modified corn starch (Cargill) and Monoglyceride GMS 90 (Cargill) were tested in the retail cake using a 3 × 3 factorial design, thus resulting in 12 combinations. The GMS 90 baker’s percentages were 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2%, whereas the C-Polar Tex 1264 baker’s percentages were 2, 3, and 4%. A panel of five food science students found C-Polar Tex 12640 at 3% and GMS 90 at 0.8% to be the ideal combination of functional ingredients for a reheatable quality comparable to a freshly baked cake. Sensory analysis was conducted to evaluate how well the retail cake would perform compared to a control cake with no added functional ingredients. A cake without starch or monoglyceride modifications was made and then frozen to be the control in the analysis. Each panelist (n=50) was given two (control and retail) microwaved cake samples and asked to complete a score sheet with questions regarding their likeness of aroma, appearance, texture, color, flavor, and overall acceptability with 1=extremely dislike and 9=extremely like. Analysis of variance was performed on SAS to determine if the functional ingredients had a significant effect on the attributes that were tested. It was determined that there were no significant differences in appearance (p=0.0993), color (p=0.5171), aroma (p=0.7853), flavor (p=0.5069), texture (p=0.3417) or overall acceptability (p=0.4280) between the control and retail cakes. The consumer scores for both products ranged from 6.9 to 7.4 which is a very acceptable rating overall. Based on the p-values it can be statistically proven that there were no significant differences between the two cakes based solely on the results of the sensory analysis. The results also indicate that the mango rum cake would be acceptable for the retail market. The sensory analysis provided a specific baseline for further testing on the modifications to get the results of equal scoring between a modified product and a non-modified product

Costs in searching for two targets: dividing search across target types could improve airport security screening

The cost of searching for two visual targets simultaneously was compared against two separate single-target searches using exposure time and accuracy measures within a staircase procedure. Dual-target search for all stimuli (colour, shape and orientation) exhibited a loss of accuracy for one target. For orientation and shape, this dual-target cost in accuracy was extreme, with chance-level performance on one target. For colour, dual-target search exhibited an additional cost in search time, with search requiring a longer exposure than the summed time required for two single-target searches. An additional search-time cost was also found for orientation targets when irrelevant colour variation was added to the display. In conclusion, dual-target search for dissimilar targets is accompanied by an accuracy cost. Furthermore, colour variation, whether task-relevant or not, leads to an additional cost in processing speed. The results suggest that a divided-effort strategy would improve performance in search tasks such as X-ray baggage screening