Experimental Evidence on the Benefits of Eliminating Exchange Rate Uncertainties and Why Expected Utility Theory causes Economists to Miss Them

Conclusions favourable to flexible exchange rates typically accord with expected utility theory in ignoring the costs that exchange rate uncertainty generates for governments, central banks, firms and unions in: (i) choosing among available acts; and (ii) existing until learning the outcome of the chosen act. Allowing for these costs involves the stages of knowledge ahead framework, Pope (1983, 1995, 2005). A laboratory experiment suggests that (i) and (ii) together outweigh the advantages of having a flexible exchange rate as an additional instrument for managing a country’s employment, interest rate, price level and international competitiveness goalsexperiment

Prominent Numbers, Indices and Ratios in Exchange Rate Determination and Financial Crashes: in Economists’ Models, in the Field and in the Laboratory

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First, in constructing theories such as purchasing power and interest parity to predict exchange rates and to advocate floating exchange rates, economists unwittingly employ nominalist heuristics. Second, nominalist heuristics have influenced actual exchange rates through the centuries, and this finding is replicated in the laboratory. Third, nominalist heuristics are incompatible with expected utility theory which excludes the evaluation stage, and are also incompatible with prospect theory which assumes that, while the evaluation stage can involve systematic mistakes, the overall decision situation is ultra simple. It is so simple that: a) economists and psychologists can mechanically model and identify what is a mistake, and b) decision makers can maximise. However, contrary to prospect theory, in the typical complex situation, neither a) nor b) holds. Assuming that a) and b) hold has resulted in the 1988 crisis from applying the Black Scholes formulae to forward exchange rates and contributed to sequel financial crises including that of 2007-2009. What is required is a fundamentally different class of models that allow for the progressive anticipated changes in knowledge ahead faced under risk and uncertainty, namely models under the umbrella of SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. The paper’s findings support a single world currency rather than variable unpredictable exchange rates subjected to the vagaries of how prominent numbers, ratios and indices influence events via the models of scientists and practitioners.nominalism, money illusion, heuristic, unpredictability, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, prominent numbers, prominent indices, prominent ratios, transparent policy, nominal equality, historical benchmarks, complexity, decision costs, evaluation, maximisation, Black Scholes, Lehmann Brothers, sub-prime crisis, central bank swaps

Managed Floats to Damp Shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9: Field and Laboratory Evidence for Chinese Interest in a Single World Currency

This paper’s field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more drastic but for central bank currency swaps. This evidence is bolstered by a laboratory experiment that incorporates more aspects of real world complexity and more different sorts of official and private sector agents than are feasible in econometric or algebraic investigations and employs a new central bank cooperation-conflict model of exchange rate determination , and is within an umbrella theory of Pope, namely SKAT, the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory. SKAT allows for risk effects from stages omitted in normal models, including those from (a) difficulties of agents in evaluating alternatives in a complex environment in which the assumed maximization of expected utility is impossible; and (b) preference for safety and reliability is not trivialized. Our joint field plus laboratory evidence indicates that official sectors should maintain an international exchange rate oriented perspective, or better yet, a single world currency as recommended by Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People’s Bank of China. To avoid rapid forgetting of havoc from isolationist clean floats and the value of stable exchange rates, a new syllabus, as under the SKAT umbrella, is fundamental in the education of official sector members in order to furnish them with a coherent alternative intellectual framework to current university education that excludes liquidity crises.clean float, managed float, IMF imposed conditions, exchange rate regime, exchange rate volatility, experiment, SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory, monetary policy, transparent policy, exchange rate shocks, central bank cooperation, central bank conflict

Proteasome assembly from 15S precursors involves major conformational changes and recycling of the Pba1-Pba2 chaperone

The chaperones Ump1 and Pba1-Pba2 promote efficient biogenesis of 20S proteasome core particles from its subunits via 15S intermediates containing alpha and beta subunits, except beta7. Here we elucidate the structural role of these chaperones in late steps of core particle biogenesis using biochemical, electron microscopy, cross-linking and mass spectrometry analyses. In 15S precursor complexes, Ump1 is largely unstructured, lining the inner cavity of the complex along the interface between alpha and beta subunits. The alpha and beta subunits form loosely packed rings with a wider alpha ring opening than in the 20S core particle, allowing for the Pba1-Pba2 heterodimer to be partially embedded in the central alpha ring cavity. During biogenesis, the heterodimer is expelled from the alpha ring by a restructuring event that organizes the beta ring and leads to tightening of the alpha ring opening. In this way, the Pba1-Pba2 chaperone is recycled for a new round of proteasome assembly

Genomic and transcriptomic changes complement each other in the pathogenesis of sporadic Burkitt lymphoma

Burkitt lymphoma (BL) is the most common B-cell lymphoma in children. Within the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC), we performed whole genome and transcriptome sequencing of 39 sporadic BL. Here, we unravel interaction of structural, mutational, and transcriptional changes, which contribute to MYC oncogene dysregulation together with the pathognomonic IG-MYC translocation. Moreover, by mapping IGH translocation breakpoints, we provide evidence that the precursor of at least a subset of BL is a B-cell poised to express IGHA. We describe the landscape of mutations, structural variants, and mutational processes, and identified a series of driver genes in the pathogenesis of BL, which can be targeted by various mechanisms, including IG-non MYC translocations, germline and somatic mutations, fusion transcripts, and alternative splicing

The genomic and transcriptional landscape of primary central nervous system lymphoma

Primary lymphomas of the central nervous system (PCNSL) are mainly diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCLs) confined to the central nervous system (CNS). Molecular drivers of PCNSL have not been fully elucidated. Here, we profile and compare the whole-genome and transcriptome landscape of 51 CNS lymphomas (CNSL) to 39 follicular lymphoma and 36 DLBCL cases outside the CNS. We find recurrent mutations in JAK-STAT, NFkB, and B-cell receptor signaling pathways, including hallmark mutations in MYD88 L265P (67%) and CD79B (63%), and CDKN2A deletions (83%). PCNSLs exhibit significantly more focal deletions of HLA-D (6p21) locus as a potential mechanism of immune evasion. Mutational signatures correlating with DNA replication and mitosis are significantly enriched in PCNSL. TERT gene expression is significantly higher in PCNSL compared to activated B-cell (ABC)-DLBCL. Transcriptome analysis clearly distinguishes PCNSL and systemic DLBCL into distinct molecular subtypes. Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)+ CNSL cases lack recurrent mutational hotspots apart from IG and HLA-DRB loci. We show that PCNSL can be clearly distinguished from DLBCL, having distinct expression profiles, IG expression and translocation patterns, as well as specific combinations of genetic alterations

Study of doubly strange systems using stored antiprotons

Bound nuclear systems with two units of strangeness are still poorly known despite their importance for many strong interaction phenomena. Stored antiprotons beams in the GeV range represent an unparalleled factory for various hyperon-antihyperon pairs. Their outstanding large production probability in antiproton collisions will open the floodgates for a series of new studies of systems which contain two or even more units of strangeness at the P‾ANDA experiment at FAIR. For the first time, high resolution γ-spectroscopy of doubly strange ΛΛ-hypernuclei will be performed, thus complementing measurements of ground state decays of ΛΛ-hypernuclei at J-PARC or possible decays of particle unstable hypernuclei in heavy ion reactions. High resolution spectroscopy of multistrange Ξ−-atoms will be feasible and even the production of Ω−-atoms will be within reach. The latter might open the door to the |S|=3 world in strangeness nuclear physics, by the study of the hadronic Ω−-nucleus interaction. For the first time it will be possible to study the behavior of Ξ‾+ in nuclear systems under well controlled conditions