Defining model complexity: An ecological perspective

Models have become a key component of scientific hypothesis testing and climate and sustainability planning, as enabled by increased data availability and computing power. As a result, understanding how the perceived ‘complexity’ of a model corresponds to its accuracy and predictive power has become a prevalent research topic. However, a wide variety of definitions of model complexity have been proposed and used, leading to an imprecise understanding of what model complexity is and its consequences across research studies, study systems, and disciplines. Here, we propose a more explicit definition of model complexity, incorporating four facets—model class, model inputs, model parameters, and computational complexity—which are modulated by the complexity of the real-world process being modelled. We illustrate these facets with several examples drawn from ecological literature. Overall, we argue that precise terminology and metrics of model complexity (e.g., number of parameters, number of inputs) may be necessary to characterize the emergent outcomes of complexity, including model comparison, model performance, model transferability and decision support

Sex and dominance: How to assess and interpret intersexual dominance relationships in mammalian societies

The causes and consequences of being in a particular dominance position have been illuminated in various animal species, and new methods to assess dominance relationships and to describe the structure of dominance hierarchies have been developed in recent years. Most research has focused on same-sex relationships, however, so that intersexual dominance relationships and hierarchies including both sexes have remained much less studied. In particular, different methods continue to be employed to rank males and females along a dominance hierarchy, and sex biases in dominance are still widely regarded as simple byproducts of sexual size dimorphism. However, males and females regularly compete over similar resources when living in the same group, and sexual conflict takes a variety of forms across societies. These processes affect the fitness of both sexes, and are mitigated by intersexual hierarchies. In this study, we draw on data from free-ranging populations of nine species of mammals that vary in the degree to which members of one sex dominate members of the other sex to explore the consequences of using different criteria and procedures for describing intra- and intersexual dominance relationships in these societies. Our analyses confirmed a continuum in patterns of intersexual dominance, from strictly male-dominated species to strictly female-dominated species. All indices of the degree of female dominance were well correlated with each other. The rank order among same-sex individuals was highly correlated between the intra- and intersexual hierarchies, and such correlation was not affected by the degree of female dominance. The relative prevalence of aggression and submission was sensitive to variation in the degree of female dominance across species, with more submissive signals and fewer aggressive acts being used in societies where female dominance prevails. Thus, this study provides important insights and key methodological tools to study intersexual dominance relationships in mammals

Navigating the evolving landscape of atopic dermatitis: Challenges and future opportunities: The 4th Davos declaration.

The 4th Davos Declaration was developed during the Global Allergy Forum in Davos which aimed to elevate the care of patients with atopic dermatitis (AD) by uniting experts and stakeholders. The forum addressed the high prevalence of AD, with a strategic focus on advancing research, treatment, and management to meet the evolving challenges in the field. This multidisciplinary forum brought together top leaders from research, clinical practice, policy, and patient advocacy to discuss the critical aspects of AD, including neuroimmunology, environmental factors, comorbidities, and breakthroughs in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. The discussions were geared towards fostering a collaborative approach to integrate these advancements into practical, patient-centric care. The forum underlined the mounting burden of AD, attributing it to significant environmental and lifestyle changes. It acknowledged the progress in understanding AD and in developing targeted therapies but recognized a gap in translating these innovations into clinical practice. Emphasis was placed on the need for enhanced awareness, education, and stakeholder engagement to address this gap effectively and to consider environmental and lifestyle factors in a comprehensive disease management strategy. The 4th Davos Declaration marks a significant milestone in the journey to improve care for people with AD. By promoting a holistic approach that combines research, education, and clinical application, the Forum sets a roadmap for stakeholders to collaborate to improve patient outcomes in AD, reflecting a commitment to adapt and respond to the dynamic challenges of AD in a changing world

Cabbage and fermented vegetables : From death rate heterogeneity in countries to candidates for mitigation strategies of severe COVID-19

Large differences in COVID-19 death rates exist between countries and between regions of the same country. Some very low death rate countries such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, or the Balkans have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods. Although biases exist when examining ecological studies, fermented vegetables or cabbage have been associated with low death rates in European countries. SARS-CoV-2 binds to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). As a result of SARS-CoV-2 binding, ACE2 downregulation enhances the angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT(1)R) axis associated with oxidative stress. This leads to insulin resistance as well as lung and endothelial damage, two severe outcomes of COVID-19. The nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2) is the most potent antioxidant in humans and can block in particular the AT(1)R axis. Cabbage contains precursors of sulforaphane, the most active natural activator of Nrf2. Fermented vegetables contain many lactobacilli, which are also potent Nrf2 activators. Three examples are: kimchi in Korea, westernized foods, and the slum paradox. It is proposed that fermented cabbage is a proof-of-concept of dietary manipulations that may enhance Nrf2-associated antioxidant effects, helpful in mitigating COVID-19 severity.Peer reviewe

Nrf2-interacting nutrients and COVID-19 : time for research to develop adaptation strategies

There are large between- and within-country variations in COVID-19 death rates. Some very low death rate settings such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, the Balkans and Africa have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods whose intake is associated with the activation of the Nrf2 (Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2) anti-oxidant transcription factor. There are many Nrf2-interacting nutrients (berberine, curcumin, epigallocatechin gallate, genistein, quercetin, resveratrol, sulforaphane) that all act similarly to reduce insulin resistance, endothelial damage, lung injury and cytokine storm. They also act on the same mechanisms (mTOR: Mammalian target of rapamycin, PPAR gamma:Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, NF kappa B: Nuclear factor kappa B, ERK: Extracellular signal-regulated kinases and eIF2 alpha:Elongation initiation factor 2 alpha). They may as a result be important in mitigating the severity of COVID-19, acting through the endoplasmic reticulum stress or ACE-Angiotensin-II-AT(1)R axis (AT(1)R) pathway. Many Nrf2-interacting nutrients are also interacting with TRPA1 and/or TRPV1. Interestingly, geographical areas with very low COVID-19 mortality are those with the lowest prevalence of obesity (Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). It is tempting to propose that Nrf2-interacting foods and nutrients can re-balance insulin resistance and have a significant effect on COVID-19 severity. It is therefore possible that the intake of these foods may restore an optimal natural balance for the Nrf2 pathway and may be of interest in the mitigation of COVID-19 severity

Minstepensjon og minstepensjonister

Hvorfor har så mange alderspensjonister minstepensjon, selv etter at folketrygden har eksistert i 35 år? Vil antallet minstepensjonister gå ned i årene som kommer, og hvem er det som blir fremtidens minstepensjonister? Slike spørsmål tas opp i denne rapporten. Det redegjøres for hvordan reguleringene i grunnbeløp og særtillegg har påvirket tallet på minstepensjonister. Utviklingen har gått i retning av mindre forskjell mellom minstepensjon og tilleggspensjon, og mindre forskjell mellom pensjon til enslige og pensjonister i parforhold. Hvor mange alderspensjonister som får minstepensjon i fremtiden, avhenger kritisk av hvordan folketrygdens grunnbeløp og særtillegg blir regulert. Ved hjelp av Statistisk sentralbyrås mikrosimuleringsmodell MOSART studeres hva som påvirker tallet på minstepensjonister i fremtiden og hvordan gruppen minstepensjonister vil bli sammensatt. Mens vi tidligere fant flest minstepensjonister blant de eldste, er det etter hvert gifte og skilte kvinner og ugifte menn i alle alderskull som er overrepresentert. En betenkelig følge av at størrelsen på minstepensjonen økes, er at en stadig økende del av minstepensjonistene har hatt arbeidsinntekt, betalt pensjonsavgift og tjent opp tilleggspensjon

Minstepensjon og minstepensjonister

Hvorfor har så mange alderspensjonister minstepensjon, selv etter at folketrygden har eksistert i 35 år? Vil antallet minstepensjonister gå ned i årene som kommer, og hvem er det som blir fremtidens minstepensjonister? Slike spørsmål tas opp i denne rapporten. Det redegjøres for hvordan reguleringene i grunnbeløp og særtillegg har påvirket tallet på minstepensjonister. Utviklingen har gått i retning av mindre forskjell mellom minstepensjon og tilleggspensjon, og mindre forskjell mellom pensjon til enslige og pensjonister i parforhold. Hvor mange alderspensjonister som får minstepensjon i fremtiden, avhenger kritisk av hvordan folketrygdens grunnbeløp og særtillegg blir regulert. Ved hjelp av Statistisk sentralbyrås mikrosimuleringsmodell MOSART studeres hva som påvirker tallet på minstepensjonister i fremtiden og hvordan gruppen minstepensjonister vil bli sammensatt. Mens vi tidligere fant flest minstepensjonister blant de eldste, er det etter hvert gifte og skilte kvinner og ugifte menn i alle alderskull som er overrepresentert. En betenkelig følge av at størrelsen på minstepensjonen økes, er at en stadig økende del av minstepensjonistene har hatt arbeidsinntekt, betalt pensjonsavgift og tjent opp tilleggspensjon