Relation between credit losses and macroeconomic factors in European banks

Abstract. Credit loss modelling under IFRS standards has changed towards a more forward-looking approach. The new expected credit loss model allows using all relevant information that is available without undue cost, also forward-looking information. Macroeconomic factors provide this kind of easily available information and thus they can be utilized in the credit loss modelling. Hence, I apply a large set of macroeconomic variables in order to find those ones that help to estimate future credit losses. Bank-specific features are also likely to affect credit loss changes, so they are also considered in this thesis. On a sample of 24 European countries and 202 banks, I examine the explanatory power of changes in macroeconomic variables on consequent credit losses. The empirical analysis is based on several pooled, fixed effects and logistic regression specifications. I also use stepwise regressions based on Akaike information criteria to select a set of relevant variables in the multivariate regression specification. The univariate regression results suggest that important macroeconomic variables explaining the changes in credit losses of the following year are the house price index, gross fixed capital formation, the nominal long-term interest rate and the term spread. Based on the multivariate regression results, inflation, unemployment and bankruptcies are the most important macroeconomic variables and bank size is the most important bank-specific variable. Small banks typically suffer from greater credit loss increases than medium and large banks, but medium and large banks are more sensitive to economic fluctuations. In addition, commercial banks are more sensitive to the changes in the house price index and unemployment than savings banks whereas savings banks are more sensitive to the changes in the number of bankruptcies. The results documented have valuable implication for the practical implementation of the credit loss models and estimating future credit losses. The findings can be especially exploited in European banks that follow IFRS standards and apply the expected credit loss model

Aqueous modification of chitosan with itaconic acid to produce strong oxygen barrier film

In this study, the chemical modification of chitosan using itaconic acid as a natural-based unsaturated dicarboxylic acid was investigated. In an aqueous environment, the amine group of chitosan reacts with itaconic acid to produce a chitosan derivative with pyrrolidone-4-carboxylic acid group. On the basis of the elemental analysis, 15 of the amine groups of chitosan reacted, thus creating modified chitosan with amine and carboxylic acid functionalities. Due to the presence of amine and carboxylic acid groups, the surface charge properties of the chitosan were notably altered after itaconic acid modification. In an aqueous solution, the modified chitosan exhibited zwitterionic properties, being cationic at low pH and turning anionic when the pH was increased over 6.5, whereas the original chitosan remained cationic until pH 9. Furthermore, it was demostrated that the modified chitosan was suitable for the preparation of a self-standing film with similarly high transparency but notably higher mechanical strength and oxygen barrier properties compared to a film made from the original chitosan. In addition, the thermal stability of the modified chitosan film was higher than that of the original chitosan film, and the modified chitosan exhibited flame-retardant properties

Short-term escitalopram treatment normalizes aberrant self-referential processing in major depressive disorder

Background: Increased self-focus and negative self-concept play an important role in depression. Antidepressants influence self-referential processing in healthy volunteers, but their function in self-processing of depressed patients remains unknown. Methods: Thirty-two depressed patients were randomly allocated to receive either escitalopram 10 mg or placebo for one week. After one week, neural responses to positive and negative self-referential adjectives and neutral control stimuli were assessed with functional magnetic resonance imaging. A group of matched healthy volunteers served as a control group. Results: Escitalopram decreased responses of medial fronto-parietal regions to self-referential words relative to non-emotional control stimuli, driven by increased responses to the control condition. Escitalopram also increased responses in the pre-defined region of the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) to positive relative to negative words. Importantly, the changes in neural responses occurred before any effect on depressive symptoms, implying a direct effect of escitalopram. Furthermore, the placebo group had decreased responses of the MPFC and the ACC to positive self-referential processing relative to the matched healthy controls. However, neural responses of the escitalopram group and the healthy unmedicated controls were similar. Limitations: Differences between the groups in self-reported depression symptoms and personality traits may have influenced the results. Conclusion: One-week treatment with escitalopram normalized aberrant self-referential processing in depressed patients, shifting the focus from the self to the external environment and potentiating positive self-referential processing. This may be an important factor in mechanism of action of antidepressants.Peer reviewe

A single dose of mirtazapine attenuates neural responses to self-referential processing

Increased self-focus is a core factor in the psychopathology of depression. Cortical midline structures (CMS) are implicated in the neurobiology of self, depression and antidepressant treatment response. Mirtazapine, an antidepressant that increases serotonin and norepinephrine release, enhances processing of positive and attenuates processing of negative emotional information in healthy volunteers after a single dose. These early changes, which are opposite to the negative information bias in depression, may be important for the therapeutic effect of mirtazapine. It nevertheless remains unresolved whether/how mirtazapine specifically influences processing of self-referential emotional information. Half of the healthy volunteers (n=15/30) received a single dose of mirtazapine, in an open-label design, two hours before functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), and the other half was scanned as a control group without medication. During fMRI the participants categorized positive and negative self-referential adjectives. Mirtazapine attenuated responses to self-referential processing in the medial prefrontal cortex and the anterior cingulate cortex. Mirtazapine further decreased responses to positive self-referential processing in the posterior cingulate cortex and parietal cortex. These decreased responses of the CMS suggest that mirtazapine may rapidly improve the ability of the CMS to down-regulate self-referential processing. In depressed patients, this could lead to decreased self-focus and rumination, contributing to the antidepressant effect.Peer reviewe

Glucose and C-Peptide Changes in the Perionset Period of Type 1 Diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1

OBJECTIVE—We examined metabolic changes in the period immediately after the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes and in the period leading up to its diagnosis in Diabetes Prevention Trial–Type 1 (DPT-1) participants

Enterprise Education Competitions: A Theoretically Flawed Intervention?

The demand for including enterprise in the education system, at all levels and for all pupils is now a global phenomenon. Within this context, the use of competitions and competitive learning activities is presented as a popular and effective vehicle for learning. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate how a realist method of enquiry – which utilises theory as the unit of analysis – can shed new light on the assumed and unintended outcomes of enterprise education competitions. The case developed here is that there are inherent flaws in assuming that competitions will ‘work’ in the ways set out in policy and guidance. Some of the most prevalent stated outcomes – that competitions will motivate and reward young people, that they will enable the development of entrepreneurial skills, and that learners will be inspired by their peers – are challenged by theory from psychology and education. The issue at stake is that the expansion of enterprise education policy into primary and secondary education increases the likelihood that more learners will be sheep dipped in competitions, and competitive activities, without a clear recognition of the potential unintended effects. In this chapter, we employ a realist-informed approach to critically evaluate the theoretical basis that underpins the use of competitions and competitive learning activities in school-based enterprise education. We believe that our findings and subsequent recommendations will provide those who promote and practice the use of competitions with a richer, more sophisticated picture of the potential flaws within such activities.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Metabolic Syndrome and Risk for Incident Alzheimer's Disease or Vascular Dementia: The Three-City Study

OBJECTIVE—Associations between metabolic syndrome and its individual components with risk of incident dementia and its different subtypes are inconsistent

Randomized controlled trials in de-implementation research : a systematic scoping review

Background: Healthcare costs are rising, and a substantial proportion of medical care is of little value. De-implementation of low-value practices is important for improving overall health outcomes and reducing costs. We aimed to identify and synthesize randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on de-implementation interventions and to provide guidance to improve future research. Methods: MEDLINE and Scopus up to May 24, 2021, for individual and cluster RCTs comparing de-implementation interventions to usual care, another intervention, or placebo. We applied independent duplicate assessment of eligibility, study characteristics, outcomes, intervention categories, implementation theories, and risk of bias. Results: Of the 227 eligible trials, 145 (64%) were cluster randomized trials (median 24 clusters; median follow-up time 305 days), and 82 (36%) were individually randomized trials (median follow-up time 274 days). Of the trials, 118 (52%) were published after 2010, 149 (66%) were conducted in a primary care setting, 163 (72%) aimed to reduce the use of drug treatment, 194 (85%) measured the total volume of care, and 64 (28%) low-value care use as outcomes. Of the trials, 48 (21%) described a theoretical basis for the intervention, and 40 (18%) had the study tailored by context-specific factors. Of the de-implementation interventions, 193 (85%) were targeted at physicians, 115 (51%) tested educational sessions, and 152 (67%) multicomponent interventions. Missing data led to high risk of bias in 137 (60%) trials, followed by baseline imbalances in 99 (44%), and deficiencies in allocation concealment in 56 (25%). Conclusions: De-implementation trials were mainly conducted in primary care and typically aimed to reduce low-value drug treatments. Limitations of current de-implementation research may have led to unreliable effect estimates and decreased clinical applicability of studied de-implementation strategies. We identified potential research gaps, including de-implementation in secondary and tertiary care settings, and interventions targeted at other than physicians. Future trials could be improved by favoring simpler intervention designs, better control of potential confounders, larger number of clusters in cluster trials, considering context-specific factors when planning the intervention (tailoring), and using a theoretical basis in intervention design. Registration: OSF Open Science Framework hk4b2.Peer reviewe

Randomized controlled trials in de-implementation research : a systematic scoping review

Background: Healthcare costs are rising, and a substantial proportion of medical care is of little value. De-implementation of low-value practices is important for improving overall health outcomes and reducing costs. We aimed to identify and synthesize randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on de-implementation interventions and to provide guidance to improve future research. Methods: MEDLINE and Scopus up to May 24, 2021, for individual and cluster RCTs comparing de-implementation interventions to usual care, another intervention, or placebo. We applied independent duplicate assessment of eligibility, study characteristics, outcomes, intervention categories, implementation theories, and risk of bias. Results: Of the 227 eligible trials, 145 (64%) were cluster randomized trials (median 24 clusters; median follow-up time 305 days), and 82 (36%) were individually randomized trials (median follow-up time 274 days). Of the trials, 118 (52%) were published after 2010, 149 (66%) were conducted in a primary care setting, 163 (72%) aimed to reduce the use of drug treatment, 194 (85%) measured the total volume of care, and 64 (28%) low-value care use as outcomes. Of the trials, 48 (21%) described a theoretical basis for the intervention, and 40 (18%) had the study tailored by context-specific factors. Of the de-implementation interventions, 193 (85%) were targeted at physicians, 115 (51%) tested educational sessions, and 152 (67%) multicomponent interventions. Missing data led to high risk of bias in 137 (60%) trials, followed by baseline imbalances in 99 (44%), and deficiencies in allocation concealment in 56 (25%). Conclusions: De-implementation trials were mainly conducted in primary care and typically aimed to reduce low-value drug treatments. Limitations of current de-implementation research may have led to unreliable effect estimates and decreased clinical applicability of studied de-implementation strategies. We identified potential research gaps, including de-implementation in secondary and tertiary care settings, and interventions targeted at other than physicians. Future trials could be improved by favoring simpler intervention designs, better control of potential confounders, larger number of clusters in cluster trials, considering context-specific factors when planning the intervention (tailoring), and using a theoretical basis in intervention design. Registration: OSF Open Science Framework hk4b2.Peer reviewe