Currency Crisis Theories – Some Explanations for the Russian Case

The paper examines currency crisis theories and applies them in searching for the main causes of the Russian crisis. We first study the determination of the exchange rate and then the first and second generation theories on currency crisis and finally the recent theoretical discussions of the Asian crisis. The main reason for the Russian crisis was the long-standing federal budget deficit. During the last years the deficits were financed mainly via short-term domestic debt. This created expectations of government insolvency and central bank financing. Moreover, the Russian economy has its own basic weaknesses, which render the country incapable of growth and prone to crisis. The Asian crisis was a trigger for the Russian crisis. Lower prices for Russian export products, inadequate financial regulations and lack of information in emerging markets in general are factors explaining this contagion effect. But the main mistakes that led to the crisis were those of the Russians themselves - the federal budget deficits. Thus the repair work should also start from there.currency crisis; Russia; budget; contagion

Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Capital Flows and Herding Behaviour

This study shows that due to herding behaviour and possible capital outflows, emerging market countries are vulnerable to multiple equilibria situations and currency crises. It uses a model by Jeanne (1997), where currency crises can be formed by multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling expectations. We determine the country fundamentals according to balance of payments approach. In this study we introduce capital flows, which depend from crisis probability, into the model. The capital flows are further assumed to follow herding behaviour, which produces a reason and mechanism for the large capital outflows witnessed during the recent crises. The range of country fundamentals, where self-fulfilling crises are possible, is now larger than without capital flows and herding behaviour. Consequently, the country fundamentals have to be better, if the country wants to stay totally out of crises. The model further points out lender interdependence as one shortcoming in the current structure of international capital markets. An empirical application of the model to the Mexican and Asian crises shows that when the possible capital outflows are included, the fundamentals of most emerging market countries were inside the range of multiple equilibria in 1994 and 1996, and so self-fulfilling crises were possible.

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalisation of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.currency crises; banking crises; emerging markets; liberalisation; probit model

Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three crisis-hidden transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that while fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria to a certain extent, this has not been the case in Romania and Russia. Even in the Bulgarian case, the usual money aggregate has proven more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that monetary policy plays an influential role in inflation determination in these countries. In other words, inflationary financing of deficits, rather than deficits themselves, accounts for inflation.fiscal policy; inflation; vector autoregressive models; transition economies

Does State Street lead to Europe? The case of financial exchange innovations

We study whether and to what extent financial exchange innovations are in practice patentable in Europe. We find that exchange-related applications initially increased significantly after the State Street decision but subsequently decreased. The clear majority (65%) of applications come from the U.S. investment banks and exchanges themselves being among the most active innovators. But patents were not easly granted in response to these applications (only 3% of them led to valid patent). The high post-grant opposition rate (41%) for granted patents indicated that competitors tightly monitored each other’s patents. The evidence, as augmented with clinical case studies, supports the notion that, for an invention to pass the inventive step requirement for obtaining a European patent, it should have technical features for solving a sufficiently challenging technical problem. Our evidence suggests that patentability standards for financial methods have not weakened in Europe in the aftermath of the State Street decision and that the inventive step requirement constitutes a major obstacle for applicants to overcome in order to obtain a financial exchange patent in Europe.finance patents; financial innovation; business method patents; patent policy; management of intellectual property in financial services

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalisation of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.currency crises, banking crises, emerging markets, liberalisation, probit model

Eristämisohjeet rikkivetytehdasympäristöön

PEPT Oy AB on vuonna 1992 Juha Enlundin toimesta perustettu perheyritys, joka on erikoistunut teline- ja eristystöihin. Se on yksi Suomen merkittävimmistä sekä eristys- että telinetyön toimittajista. Yritys työllistää työntekijöitään niin Suomessa kuin Ruotsissa. Henkilötyövuosia vuonna 2017 yritykselle kertyi noin 300. Terrafamella PEPT aloitti vuonna 2010, ja se on pysynyt alueella siitä lähtien. PEPT Oy AB halusi päivittää eristysohjeensa ja saada eristämisohjeet rikkivetytehdas-ympäristöön. Työn tavoitteena on varmistaa, että ohjeet täyttävät Suomen Standardi-soimisliiton SFS-laatukriteerit ja myös soveltuvat Terrafamen tehdasalueelle. Opinnäytetyössä perehdytään Suomen Standardisoimisliiton SFS-standardeihin. Niiden pohjalta tehtiin eristysohjeet, joilla varmistaen eristäjien tekevän työn oikeassa järjestyk-sessä, turvallisesti ja huolellisesti, ja joiden avulla voidaan ehkäistä mahdollisia ongelmia ja vaaratilanteita. Opinnäytetyössä pohditaan myös yhteistyön kehittämistä opinnäyte-työn tilaajan, PEPT Oy:n, ja Terrafamen kanssa. Työ aloitettiin käyttötapakaavion luomisesta, josta pyrittiin löytämään kehittämistä vaati-via kohteita. Kun kohteet oli löydetty, pyrittiin niille löytämään vaihtoehtoisia menettelyta-poja. Havaittiin, että ohjeet ja kehitysideat, jotka perustuvat SFS-standardeihin, täydentä-vät yritysten nykyisiä näkemyksiä. Lopputulokseen PEPT Oy ja Terrafame Oy olivat tyytyväisiä ja ohjeita aloitetaan seuraamaan välittömästi käytännön tasolla.PEPT Oy AB is a family-owned company founded in 1992 by Juha Enlund, a specialist in scaffolding and insulation work. It is one of Finland's leading suppliers of insulation and plumbing. The company has employees in Finland and Sweden. The number of staff in 2017 was around 300. At Terrafame PEPT started in 2010 and has been in the area since then. PEPT Oy AB wanted to update its insulation instructions and to obtain the proper in-structions for the containment of hydrogen sulphide. The aim of the thesis is to ensure that the guidelines and usage of the said materials meet the SFS quality criteria of the Finnish Standard Swing Association and also apply to the Terrafame factory area. The thesis content acts in accordance with the SFS standards of the Finnish Standardi-zation Association. Insulation instructions were made to ensure the inspectors work in the right order, safely and carefully, as well as help to prevent potential problems and inci-dents. The thesis includes the development of co-operation with the author of the thesis, PEPT Oy and Terrafame. The work was started by drawing up a usage chart, which sought to find the needs for development. The goal was to find alternative ways of doing things. The result indicates that the guidelines and development proposals are based on SFS standards and com-plement the existing procedures. In conclusion, PEPT Oy and Terrafame Oy were satis-fied with the instructions and started to implement them immediately on a practical level

Tetraverkkojen yhteenliittämisen tarve ja tekniset ratkaisut

Tämän opinnäytetyön toimeksiantajana on Erillisverkot Oy. Opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena oli selvittää verkkovierailun mahdollisuus naapurivaltioiden kanssa. VIRVEn eri viranomaiskäyttäjil-tä kartoitettiin verkkovierailuominaisuuden tarvemäärää sekä toiminnan tarpeellisuutta. Opinnäytetyössä kerrotaan TETRA-standardista, VIRVE-viranomaisverkosta sekä sen käyttäjis-tä. Käsitellään myös verkkovierailua, Ruotsin ja Norjan verkkovierailun projektia sekä Erillis-verkkojen verkkovierailutestiä. Opinnäytetyön tutkimus toteutettiin webropol-kyselynä VIRVE-pääkäyttäjäryhmälle. VIRVE-pääkäyttäjäryhmässä on eri organisaatioiden VIRVEn käyttäjien asiantuntijat, joilla on paras tietotaito organisaationsa VIRVE-käytöstä. Opinnäytetyön tuloksena toimeksiantaja saa tietoa verkkovierailun tarpeellisuudesta ja sen käy-tettävyydestä eri VIRVEn viranomais- käyttäjäryhmiltä. Päätelmänä voidaan todeta, että verkko-vierailu on kaikkien VIRVEn viranomaisten mielestä ajankohtainen.The present master’s thesis was commissioned by Erillisverkot Oy. The aim of the thesis is to determine the roaming possibilities with the neighbouring states. A survey was conducted among the different groups of authorities using VIRVE. The survey focused on the need for the roaming feature as well as on the extent to which it is necessary. The thesis describes the TETRA standard, the VIRVE public authority network and its users. In addition, it discusses roaming, the roaming project with Sweden and Norway, as well as the roaming test of Erillisverkot Oy. The study was carried out by conducting a Webropol-survey among the VIRVE administrator group. VIRVE administrator group comprises of the VIRVE expert users who have-, the best knowledge of how their respective organizations use VIRVE. As a result of the present study, the sponsor gets information about the necessity and availability of network visits among different VIRVE public user groups. Finally, it can be concluded that all VIRVE authorities consider network visits relevant

Ruoka-allergiaa sairastavan lapsen perheen elämänlaatua vahvistavat ja heikentävät tekijät

Ruoka-allergiat ovat yleisimmillään 2-3 vuotiailla lapsilla, jonka jälkeen ne alkavat väistyä tultaessa kouluikään. Vanhempien arvioimana 4-vuotiaista lapsista jopa 21%:lla on ruoka-allergia, mutta heistä noin puolet on diagnosoitu ruoka-allergisiksi

MUUTOSJOHTAMISEN OPAS

Opinnäytetyö pohjautuu pitkälti Easmar Logistics Oy:ssä tehtyyn laatuprojektiin joka toteutettiin hyvin nopealla aikataululla asiakasvaatimuksien pohjalta. Organisaatioon tuli suuri määrä erilaisia uusia toimintatapoja ja sääntöjä, jotka vaikuttivat hyvin paljon päivittäisiin rutiineihin. Työn tavoitteena on se, että se olisi apuna tulevissa muutoksissa: mitä asioita tulisi pohtia ennen muutosta, sen aikana ja muutoksen jälkeen. Johtaminen on olennainen osa muutoksen onnistunutta läpiviemistä organisaatiossa. Muutosjohtamisen täytyy alkaa ennen varsinaisen muutoksen alkua, olla tehokkaasti läsnä koko muutoksen ajan sekä jatkua vielä sen jälkeenkin. Mikäli johtaminen ei ole tehokasta ja hyvin suunniteltua niin muutoksesta syntyy helposti kaaos, joka taas helposti johtaa itse aiottua muutosta suurempaan muutokseen. Muutoksen syiden täytyy olla hyvin perusteluja henkilökunnalle, jolloin sen läpivieminen on helpompaa ja onnistuminen varmempaa. Muutos vaatii paljon aikaa niin johtajilta kuin henkilökunnaltakin. Muutos vaatii paljon huolenpitoa vielä senkin jälkeen kun se on näennäisesti läpiviety.The Thesis is largely based on to quality project of Easmar Logistics Oy, which was carried out with short notice based on customers’ requirements. There came a great number of new practices and rules for this organization, which also effected on daily routines. Objective of this Thesis is that this would be helpful in the changes, which are coming in the future. What things should be considered before the change, during and after the change? Leadership is an essential part of a successful change through the introduction into the organization. Change management must begin before the actual change, to be effectively present during the change and even continue after the change. If management is not effective and well planned, the change will create a chaos, which can easily lead even to bigger change, which was plan in the beginning. Reasons for the change have to be well justified to the staff, so it will be easier to car-ry throw successful and safer. The change requires a lot of time from the managers as from the staff. The change requires a lot of care, even after it has been apparently al-ready been completed