Comparing health workforce forecasting approaches for healthcare planning: The case for ophthalmologists

Health workforce planning is essential in the provision of quality healthcare. Several approaches to planning are customarily used and advocated, each with unique underlying assumptions. Thus, a thorough understanding of each assumption is required in order to make an informed decision on the choice of forecasting approach to be used. For illustration, we compare results for eye care requirements in Singapore using three established workforce forecasting approaches – workforce-to-population-ratio, needs based approach, utilization based approach – and a proposed robust integrated approach to discuss the appropriateness of each approach under various scenarios. Four simulation models using the systems modeling methodology of system dynamics were developed for use in each approach. These models were initialized and simulated using the example of eye care workforce planning in Singapore, to project the number of ophthalmologists required up to the year 2040 under the four different approaches. We found that each approach projects a different number of ophthalmologists required over time. The needs based approach tends to project the largest number of required ophthalmologists, followed by integrated, utilization based and workforce-to-population ratio approaches in descending order. The four different approaches vary widely in their forecasted workforce requirements and reinforce the need to be discerning of the fundamental differences of each approach in order to choose the most appropriate one. Further, health workforce planning should also be approached in a comprehensive and integrated manner that accounts for developments in demographic and healthcare systems

Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore

#### Background Singapore’s population, as that of many other countries, is aging; this is likely to lead to an increase in eye diseases and the demand for eye care. Since ophthalmologist training is long and expensive, early planning is essential. This paper forecasts workforce and training requirements for Singapore up to the year 2040 under several plausible future scenarios. #### Methods The Singapore Eye Care Workforce Model was created as a continuous time compartment model with explicit workforce stocks using system dynamics. The model has three modules: prevalence of eye disease, demand, and workforce requirements. The model is used to simulate the prevalence of eye diseases, patient visits, and workforce requirements for the public sector under different scenarios in order to determine training requirements. #### Results Four scenarios were constructed. Under the baseline business-as-usual scenario, the required number of ophthalmologists is projected to increase by 117% from 2015 to 2040. Under the current policy scenario (assuming an increase of service uptake due to increased awareness, availability, and accessibility of eye care services), the increase will be 175%, while under the new model of care scenario (considering the additional effect of providing some services by non-ophthalmologists) the increase will only be 150%. The moderated workload scenario (assuming in addition a reduction of the clinical workload) projects an increase in the required number of ophthalmologists of 192% by 2040. Considering the uncertainties in the projected demand for eye care services, under the business-as-usual scenario, a residency intake of 8–22 residents per year is required, 17–21 under the current policy scenario, 14–18 under the new model of care scenario, and, under the moderated workload scenario, an intake of 18–23 residents per year is required. #### Conclusions The results show that under all scenarios considered, Singapore’s aging and growing population will result in an almost doubling of the number of Singaporeans with eye conditions, a significant increase in public sector eye care demand and, consequently, a greater requirement for ophthalmologists

Ovarian cancer risk factors by tumor aggressiveness : An analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium

Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in = 35 vs. 20 to <25 kg/m(2), 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted.Peer reviewe

Proceedings of the International Cancer Imaging Society (ICIS) 16th Annual Teaching Course

Table of contents O1 Tumour heterogeneity: what does it mean? Dow-Mu Koh O2 Skeletal sequelae in adult survivors of childhood cancer Sue Creviston Kaste O3 Locoregional effects of breast cancer treatment Sarah J Vinnicombe O4 Imaging of cancer therapy-induced CNS toxicity Giovanni Morana, Andrea Rossi O5 Screening for lung cancer Christian J. Herold O6Risk stratification of lung nodules Theresa C. McLoud O7 PET imaging of pulmonary nodules Kirk A Frey O8 Transarterial tumour therapy Bernhard Gebauer O9 Interventional radiology in paediatric oncology Derek Roebuck O10 Image guided prostate interventions Jurgen J. Fütterer O11 Imaging cancer predisposition syndromes Alexander J. Towbin O12Chest and chest wall masses Thierry AG Huisman O13 Abdominal masses: good or bad? Anne MJB Smets O14 Hepatobiliary MR contrast: enhanced liver MRI for HCC diagnosis and management Giovanni Morana O15 Role of US elastography and multimodality fusion for managing patients with chronic liver disease and HCC Jeong Min Lee O16 Opportunities and challenges in imaging metastatic disease Hersh Chandarana O17 Diagnosis, treatment monitoring, and follow-up of lymphoma Marius E. Mayerhoefer, Markus Raderer, Alexander Haug O18 Managing high-risk and advanced prostate cancer Matthias Eiber O19 Immunotherapy: imaging challenges Bernhard Gebauer O20 RECIST and RECIST 1.1 Andrea Rockall O21 Challenges of RECIST in oncology imaging basics for the trainee and novice Aslam Sohaib O22 Lymphoma: PET for interim and end of treatment response assessment: a users’ guide to the Deauville Score Victoria S Warbey O23 Available resources Hebert Alberto Vargas O24 ICIS e-portal and the online learning community Dow-Mu Koh O25 Benign lesions that mimic pancreatic cancer Jay P Heiken O26 Staging and reporting pancreatic malignancies Isaac R Francis, Mahmoud, M Al-Hawary, Ravi K Kaza O27 Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm Giovanni Morana O28 Cystic pancreatic tumours Mirko D’Onofrio O29 Diffusion-weighted imaging of head and neck tumours Harriet C. Thoeny O30 Radiation injury in the head and neck Ann D King O31 PET/MR of paediatric brain tumours Giovanni Morana, Arnoldo Piccardo, Maria Luisa Garrè, Andrea Rossi O32 Structured reporting and beyond Hebert Alberto Vargas O33 Massachusetts General Hospital experience with structured reporting Theresa C. McLoud O34 The oncologist’s perspective: what the oncologist needs to know Nick Reed O35 Towards the cure of all children with cancer: global initiatives in pediatric oncology Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo O36 Multiparametric imaging of renal cancers Hersh Chandarana O37 Linking imaging features of renal disease and their impact on management strategies Hebert Alberto Vargas O38 Adrenals, retroperitoneum and peritoneum Isaac R Francis, Ashish P Wasnik O39 Lung and pleura Stefan Diederich O40 Advances in MRI Jurgen J. Fütterer O41 Advances in molecular imaging Wim J.G. Oyen O42 Incorporating advanced imaging, impact on treatment selection and patient outcome Cheng Lee Chaw, Nicholas van As S1 Combining ADC-histogram features improves performance of MR diffusion-weighted imaging for Lymph node characterisation in cervical cancer Igor Vieira, Frederik De Keyzer, Elleke Dresen, Sileny Han, Ignace Vergote, Philippe Moerman, Frederic Amant, Michel Koole, Vincent Vandecaveye S2 Whole-body diffusion-weighted MRI for surgical planning in patients with colorectal cancer and peritoneal metastases R Dresen, S De Vuysere, F De Keyzer, E Van Cutsem, A D’Hoore, A Wolthuis, V Vandecaveye S3 Role of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) diffusion-weighted MRI for predicting extra capsular extension of prostate cancer. P. Pricolo ([email protected]), S. Alessi, P. Summers, E. Tagliabue, G. Petralia S4 Generating evidence for clinical benefit of PET/CT – are management studies sufficient as surrogate for patient outcome? C. Pfannenberg, B. Gückel, SC Schüle, AC Müller, S. Kaufmann, N. Schwenzer, M. Reimold,C. la Fougere, K. Nikolaou, P. Martus S5 Heterogeneity of treatment response in skeletal metastases from breast cancer with 18F-fluoride and 18F-FDG PET GJ Cook, GK Azad, BP Taylor, M Siddique, J John, J Mansi, M Harries, V Goh S6 Accuracy of suspicious breast imaging—can we tell the patient? S Seth, R Burgul, A Seth S7 Measurement method of tumour volume changes during neoadjuvant chemotherapy affects ability to predict pathological response S Waugh, N Muhammad Gowdh, C Purdie, A Evans, E Crowe, A Thompson, S Vinnicombe S8 Diagnostic yield of CT IVU in haematuria screening F. Arfeen, T. Campion, E. Goldstraw S9 Percutaneous radiofrequency ablation of unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer: preliminary results D’Onofrio M, Ciaravino V, Crosara S, De Robertis R, Pozzi Mucelli R S10 Iodine maps from dual energy CT improve detection of metastases in staging examinations of melanoma patients M. Uhrig, D. Simons, H. Schlemmer S11Can contrast enhanced CT predict pelvic nodal status in malignant melanoma of the lower limb? Kate Downey S12 Current practice in the investigation for suspected Paraneoplastic Neurological Syndromes (PNS) and positive malignancy yield. S Murdoch, AS Al-adhami, S Viswanathan P1 Technical success and efficacy of Pulmonary Radiofrequency ablation: an analysis of 207 ablations S Smith, P Jennings, D Bowers, R Soomal P2 Lesion control and patient outcome: prospective analysis of radiofrequency abaltion in pulmonary colorectal cancer metastatic disease S Smith, P Jennings, D Bowers, R Soomal P3 Hepatocellular carcinoma in a post-TB patient: case of tropical infections and oncologic imaging challenges TM Mutala, AO Odhiambo, N Harish P4 Role of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) diffusion-weighted MRI for predicting extracapsular extension of prostate cancer P. Pricolo, S. Alessi, P. Summers, E. Tagliabue, G. Petralia P5 What a difference a decade makes; comparison of lung biopsies in Glasgow 2005 and 2015 M. Hall, M. Sproule, S. Sheridan P6 Solid pseudopapillary tumour of pancreas: imaging features of a rare neoplasm KY Thein, CH Tan, YL Thian, CM Ho P7 MDCT - pathological correlation in colon adenocarcinoma staging: preliminary experience S De Luca, C Carrera, V Blanchet, L Alarcón, E Eyheremnedy P8 Image guided biopsy of thoracic masses and reduction of pneumothorax risk: 25 years experience B K Choudhury, K Bujarbarua, G Barman P9 Tumour heterogeneity analysis of 18F-FDG-PET for characterisation of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumours in neurofibromatosis-1 GJ Cook, E Lovat, M Siddique, V Goh, R Ferner, VS Warbey P10 Impact of introduction of vacuum assisted excision (VAE) on screen detected high risk breast lesions L Potti, B Kaye, A Beattie, K Dutton P11 Can we reduce prevalent recall rate in breast screening? AA Seth, F Constantinidis, H Dobson P12 How to reduce prevalent recall rate? Identifying mammographic lesions with low Positive Predictive Value (PPV) AA Seth ([email protected]), F Constantinidis, H Dobson P13 Behaviour of untreated pulmonary thrombus in oncology patients diagnosed with incidental pulmonary embolism on CT R. Bradley, G. Bozas, G. Avery, A. Stephens, A. Maraveyas P14 A one-stop lymphoma biopsy service – is it possible? S Bhuva, CA Johnson, M Subesinghe, N Taylor P15 Changes in the new TNM classification for lung cancer (8th edition, effective January 2017) LE Quint, RM Reddy, GP Kalemkerian P16 Cancer immunotherapy: a review of adequate imaging assessment G González Zapico, E Gainza Jauregui, R Álvarez Francisco, S Ibáñez Alonso, I Tavera Bahillo, L Múgica Álvarez P17 Succinate dehydrogenase mutations and their associated tumours O Francies, R Wheeler, L Childs, A Adams, A Sahdev P18 Initial experience in the usefulness of dual energy technique in the abdomen SE De Luca, ME Casalini Vañek, MD Pascuzzi, T Gillanders, PM Ramos, EP Eyheremendy P19 Recognising the serious complication of Richter’s transformation in CLL patients C Stove, M Digby P20 Body diffusion-weighted MRI in oncologic practice: truths, tricks and tips M. Nazar, M. Wirtz, MD. Pascuzzi, F. Troncoso, F. Saguier, EP. Eyheremendy P21 Methotrexate-induced leukoencephalopathy in paediatric ALL Patients D.J. Quint, L. Dang, M. Carlson, S. Leber, F. Silverstein P22 Pitfalls in oncology CT reporting. A pictorial review R Rueben, S Viswanathan P23 Imaging of perineural extension in head and neck tumours B Nazir, TH Teo, JB Khoo P24 MRI findings of molecular subtypes of breast cancer: a pictorial primer K Sharma, N Gupta, B Mathew, T Jeyakumar, K Harkins P25 When cancer can’t wait! A pictorial review of oncological emergencies K Sharma, B Mathew, N Gupta, T Jeyakumar, S Joshua P26 MRI of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours: an approach to interpretation D Christodoulou, S Gourtsoyianni, A Jacques, N Griffin, V Goh P27 Gynaecological cancers in pregnancy: a review of imaging CA Johnson, J Lee P28 Suspected paraneoplastic neurological syndromes - review of published recommendations to date, with proposed guideline/flowchart JA Goodfellow, AS Al-adhami, S Viswanathan P29 Multi-parametric MRI of the pelvis for suspected local recurrence of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy R Bradley P30 Utilisation of PI-RADS version 2 in multi-parametric MRI of the prostate; 12-months experience R Bradley P31 Radiological assessment of the post-chemotherapy liver A Yong, S Jenkins, G Joseph P32 Skeletal staging with MRI in breast cancer – what the radiologist needs to know S Bhuva, K Partington P33 Perineural spread of lympoma: an educational review of an unusual distribution of disease CA Johnson, S Bhuva, M Subesinghe, N Taylor P34 Visually isoattenuating pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Diagnostic imaging tools. C Carrera, A Zanfardini, S De Luca, L Alarcón, V Blanchet, EP Eyheremendy P35 Imaging of larynx cancer: when is CT, MRI or FDG PET/CT the best test? K Cavanagh, E Lauhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134651/1/40644_2016_Article_79.pd

Large-scale association analysis identifies new lung cancer susceptibility loci and heterogeneity in genetic susceptibility across histological subtypes.

Although several lung cancer susceptibility loci have been identified, much of the heritability for lung cancer remains unexplained. Here 14,803 cases and 12,262 controls of European descent were genotyped on the OncoArray and combined with existing data for an aggregated genome-wide association study (GWAS) analysis of lung cancer in 29,266 cases and 56,450 controls. We identified 18 susceptibility loci achieving genome-wide significance, including 10 new loci. The new loci highlight the striking heterogeneity in genetic susceptibility across the histological subtypes of lung cancer, with four loci associated with lung cancer overall and six loci associated with lung adenocarcinoma. Gene expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) analysis in 1,425 normal lung tissue samples highlights RNASET2, SECISBP2L and NRG1 as candidate genes. Other loci include genes such as a cholinergic nicotinic receptor, CHRNA2, and the telomere-related genes OFBC1 and RTEL1. Further exploration of the target genes will continue to provide new insights into the etiology of lung cancer

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Outcomes from elective colorectal cancer surgery during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This study aimed to describe the change in surgical practice and the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on mortality after surgical resection of colorectal cancer during the initial phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic