Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Pneumoproteins and biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation do not predict rapid lung function decline in people living with HIV

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is among the leading causes of death worldwide and HIV is an independent risk factor for the development of COPD. However, the etiology of this increased risk and means to identify persons with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for COPD have remained elusive. Biomarkers may reveal etiologic pathways and allow better COPD risk stratification. We performed a matched case:control study of PWH in the Strategic Timing of Antiretoviral Treatment (START) pulmonary substudy. Cases had rapid lung function decline (> 40 mL/year FEV1 decline) and controls had stable lung function (+ 20 to − 20 mL/year). The analysis was performed in two distinct groups: (1) those who were virally suppressed for at least 6 months and (2) those with untreated HIV (from the START deferred treatment arm). We used linear mixed effects models to test the relationship between case:control status and blood concentrations of pneumoproteins (surfactant protein-D and club cell secretory protein), and biomarkers of inflammation (IL-6 and hsCRP) and coagulation (d-dimer and fibrinogen); concentrations were measured within ± 6 months of first included spirometry. We included an interaction with treatment group (untreated HIV vs viral suppression) to test if associations varied by treatment group. This analysis included 77 matched case:control pairs in the virally suppressed batch, and 42 matched case:control pairs in the untreated HIV batch (n = 238 total) who were followed for a median of 3 years. Median (IQR) CD4 + count was lowest in the controls with untreated HIV at 674 (580, 838). We found no significant associations between case:control status and pneumoprotein or biomarker concentrations in either virally suppressed or untreated PWH. In this cohort of relatively young, recently diagnosed PWH, concentrations of pneumoproteins and biomarkers of inflammation and coagulation were not associated with subsequent rapid lung function decline. Trial registration: NCT00867048 and NCT01797367

An Ontological Approach to Inform HMI Designs for Minimizing Driver Distractions with ADAS

ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) are in-vehicle systems designed to enhance driving safety and efficiency as well as comfort for drivers in the driving process. Recent studies have noticed that when Human Machine Interface (HMI) is not designed properly, an ADAS can cause distraction which would affect its usage and even lead to safety issues. Current understanding of these issues is limited to the context-dependent nature of such systems. This paper reports the development of a holistic conceptualisation of how drivers interact with ADAS and how such interaction could lead to potential distraction. This is done taking an ontological approach to contextualise the potential distraction, driving tasks and user interactions centred on the use of ADAS. Example scenarios are also given to demonstrate how the developed ontology can be used to deduce rules for identifying distraction from ADAS and informing future designs

Health promoting settings in primary health care - "hälsotorg": an implementation analysis

Background Sweden, like many other western countries, faces increasing rates of lifestyle related diseases and corresponding rise in costs for health care. To meet these challenges, a number of efforts have been introduced at different societal levels. One such effort is "Hälsotorg" (HS). HS is a new health promotion setting that emerged in collaboration between the Swedish County Councils and Apoteket AB, a state-owned pharmacy company. HS's overall aim was to improve population health and facilitate inhabitants' responsibility for self-care. A new National Public Health Policy, introduced in 2008, emphasizes more focus on individual's needs and responsibility as well as strong need for county councils to provide supportive environment for individual-centred health services and increased health literacy among the population. In light of this policy, there is a need to examine existing settings that can provide supportive environment for individuals at community level. The aim of this study was to explore HS's policy implementation at local level and analyse HS's activities, in order to provide a deeper understanding of HS's potential as a health promoting setting. Methods Materials included a survey and key documents related to the development and nature of HS on local and national levels. A policy analysis inspired by Walt and Gilson was used in data analysis. In addition, an analysis using the principles of health promotion in relation to HS policy process and activities was also carried out. Results The analysis illuminated strengths and weaknesses in the policy process, its actors, contextual factors and activities. The health communication approach in the analysed documents contained health promoting intentions but the health promoting approach corresponding to a health promoting setting was neither apparent nor shared among the stakeholders. This influenced the interpretation and implementation of HS negatively. Conclusions The analysis indicates that HS has potential to be a valuable health promotion setting for both population and individuals, given the strong intentions for a health and empowerment building approach that is expressed in the documents. However, for a more sustainable implementation of HS, there is need for an in- depth understanding of the health promotion approach among HS stakeholders

On Predicting Mössbauer Parameters of Iron-Containing Molecules with Density-Functional Theory

The performance of six frequently used density functional theory (DFT) methods (RPBE, OLYP, TPSS, B3LYP, B3LYP*, and TPSSh) in the prediction of Mössbauer isomer shifts(δ) and quadrupole splittings (ΔEQ) is studied for an extended and diverse set of Fe complexes. In addition to the influence of the applied density functional and the type of the basis set, the effect of the environment of the molecule, approximated with the conducting-like screening solvation model (COSMO) on the computed Mössbauer parameters, is also investigated. For the isomer shifts the COSMO-B3LYP method is found to provide accurate δ values for all 66 investigated complexes, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.05 mm s–1 and a maximum deviation of 0.12 mm s–1. Obtaining accurate ΔEQ values presents a bigger challenge; however, with the selection of an appropriate DFT method, a reasonable agreement can be achieved between experiment and theory. Identifying the various chemical classes of compounds that need different treatment allowed us to construct a recipe for ΔEQ calculations; the application of this approach yields a MAE of 0.12 mm s–1 (7% error) and a maximum deviation of 0.55 mm s–1 (17% error). This accuracy should be sufficient for most chemical problems that concern Fe complexes. Furthermore, the reliability of the DFT approach is verified by extending the investigation to chemically relevant case studies which include geometric isomerism, phase transitions induced by variations of the electronic structure (e.g., spin crossover and inversion of the orbital ground state), and the description of electronically degenerate triplet and quintet states. Finally, the immense and often unexploited potential of utilizing the sign of the ΔEQ in characterizing distortions or in identifying the appropriate electronic state at the assignment of the spectral lines is also shown

Circulating microRNAs in sera correlate with soluble biomarkers of immune activation but do not predict mortality in ART treated individuals with HIV-1 infection: A case control study

Introduction: The use of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced HIV-1 associated morbidity and mortality. However, HIV-1 infected individuals have increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to the non-HIV-1 infected population and this appears to be related to end-organ diseases collectively referred to as Serious Non-AIDS Events (SNAEs). Circulating miRNAs are reported as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions including those that constitute SNAEs. Our study sought to investigate the potential of selected miRNAs in predicting mortality in HIV-1 infected ART treated individuals. Materials and Methods: A set of miRNAs was chosen based on published associations with human disease conditions that constitute SNAEs. This case: control study compared 126 cases (individuals who died whilst on therapy), and 247 matched controls (individuals who remained alive). Cases and controls were ART treated participants of two pivotal HIV-1 trials. The relative abundance of each miRNA in serum was measured, by RTqPCR. Associations with mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and malignancy) were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Correlations between miRNAs and CD4+ T cell count, hs-CRP, IL-6 and D-dimer were also assessed. Results: None of the selected miRNAs was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular or malignancy mortality. The levels of three miRNAs (miRs -21, -122 and -200a) correlated with IL-6 while miR-21 also correlated with D-dimer. Additionally, the abundance of miRs -31, -150 and -223, correlated with baseline CD4+ T cell count while the same three miRNAs plus miR- 145 correlated with nadir CD4+ T cell count. Discussion: No associations with mortality were found with any circulating miRNA studied. These results cast doubt onto the effectiveness of circulating miRNA as early predictors of mortality or the major underlying diseases that contribute to mortality in participants treated for HIV-1 infection