Stability of Closed Timelike Curves in Goedel Universe

We study, in some detail, the linear stability of closed timelike curves in the Goedel metric. We show that these curves are stable. We present a simple extension (deformation) of the Goedel metric that contains a class of closed timelike curves similar to the ones associated to the original Goedel metric. This extension correspond to the addition of matter whose energy-momentum tensor is analyzed. We find the conditions to have matter that satisfies the usual energy conditions. We study the stability of closed timelike curves in the presence of usual matter as well as in the presence of exotic matter (matter that does satisfy the above mentioned conditions). We find that the closed timelike curves in Goedel universe with or whithout the inclusion of regular or exotic matter are also stable under linear perturbations. We also find a sort of structural stability.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, RevTex, several typos corrected. GRG, in pres

The Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS): A Low-Cost, Portable System for Standardized Empirical Assessments of Coral Thermal Limits

Ocean warming is increasingly affecting marine ecosystems across the globe. Reef-building corals are particularly affected by warming, with mass bleaching events increasing in frequency and leading to widespread coral mortality. Yet, some corals can resist or recover from bleaching better than others. Such variability in thermal resilience could be critical to reef persistence; however, the scientific community lacks standardized diagnostic approaches to rapidly and comparatively assess coral thermal vulnerability prior to bleaching events. We present the Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS) as a low-cost, open-source, field-portable experimental system for rapid empirical assessment of coral thermal thresholds using standardized temperature stress profiles and diagnostics. The CBASS consists of four or eight flow-through experimental aquaria with independent water masses, lighting, and individual automated temperature controls capable of delivering custom modulating thermal profiles. The CBASS is used to conduct daily thermal stress exposures that typically include 3-h temperature ramps to multiple target temperatures, a 3-h hold period at the target temperatures, and a 1-h ramp back down to ambient temperature, followed by an overnight recovery period. This mimics shallow water temperature profiles observed in coral reefs and prompts a rapid acute heat stress response that can serve as a diagnostic tool to identify putative thermotolerant corals for in-depth assessments of adaptation mechanisms, targeted conservation, and possible use in restoration efforts. The CBASS is deployable within hours and can assay up to 40 coral fragments/aquaria/day, enabling high-throughput, rapid determination of thermal thresholds for individual genotypes, populations, species, and sites using a standardized experimental framework

The Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS): A low‐cost, portable system for standardized empirical assessments of coral thermal limits

Ocean warming is increasingly affecting marine ecosystems across the globe. Reef-building corals are particularly affected by warming, with mass bleaching events increasing in frequency and leading to widespread coral mortality. Yet, some corals can resist or recover from bleaching better than others. Such variability in thermal resilience could be critical to reef persistence; however, the scientific community lacks standardized diagnostic approaches to rapidly and comparatively assess coral thermal vulnerability prior to bleaching events. We present the Coral Bleaching Automated Stress System (CBASS) as a low-cost, open-source, field-portable experimental system for rapid empirical assessment of coral thermal thresholds using standardized temperature stress profiles and diagnostics. The CBASS consists of four or eight flow-through experimental aquaria with independent water masses, lighting, and individual automated temperature controls capable of delivering custom modulating thermal profiles. The CBASS is used to conduct daily thermal stress exposures that typically include 3-h temperature ramps to multiple target temperatures, a 3-h hold period at the target temperatures, and a 1-h ramp back down to ambient temperature, followed by an overnight recovery period. This mimics shallow water temperature profiles observed in coral reefs and prompts a rapid acute heat stress response that can serve as a diagnostic tool to identify putative thermotolerant corals for in-depth assessments of adaptation mechanisms, targeted conservation, and possible use in restoration efforts. The CBASS is deployable within hours and can assay up to 40 coral fragments/aquaria/day, enabling high-throughput, rapid determination of thermal thresholds for individual genotypes, populations, species, and sites using a standardized experimental framework

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Association of MAPT haplotype‐tagging polymorphisms with cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease: A preliminary study in a Croatian cohort

Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the world leading cause of dementia. Early detection of AD is essential for faster and more efficacious usage of therapeutics and preventive measures. Even though it is well known that one ε4 allele of apolipoprotein E gene increases the risk for sporadic AD five times, and that two ε4 alleles increase the risk 20 times, reliable genetic markers for AD are not yet available. Previous studies have shown that microtubule‐associated protein tau (MAPT) gene polymorphisms could be associated with increased risk for AD. Methods: The present study included 113 AD patients and 53 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), as well as nine healthy controls (HC) and 53 patients with other primary causes of dementia. The study assessed whether six MAPT haplotype‐tagging polymorphisms (rs1467967, rs242557, rs3785883, rs2471738, del–In9, and rs7521) and MAPT haplotypes are associated with AD pathology, as measured by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) AD biomarkers amyloid β1–42 (Aβ1–42), total tau (t‐tau), tau phosphorylated at epitopes 181 (p‐tau181), 199 (p‐tau199), and 231 (p‐tau231), and visinin‐like protein 1 (VILIP‐1). Results: Significant increases in t‐tau and p‐tau CSF levels were found in patients with AG and AA MAPT rs1467967 genotype, CC MAPT rs2471738 genotype and in patients with H1H2 or H2H2 MAPT haplotype. Conclusions: These results indicate that MAPT haplotype‐tagging polymorphisms and MAPT haplotypes should be further tested as potential genetic biomarkers of AD

Symbiont composition and coral genotype determines massive coral species performance under end-of-century climate scenarios

The recent decline of coral health and substantial loss of coral cover along Florida’s Coral Reef (FCR) results from local stressors such as degraded water quality and disease outbreaks in addition to anthropogenically driven global stressors including ocean warming and acidification. Intervention strategies intended for the restoration of degraded reef habitats need a better understanding of the influence of ocean warming and acidification on coral health to target coral species and individual genotypes that may be more resistant or resilient to such stressors. Here, we examined a suite of physiological traits (coral host and algal symbiont) in response to experimentally elevated water temperatures and pCO2 levels, both separately and in concert, using threatened reef-building corals Pseudodiploria clivosa and Orbicella faveolata reared within a land-based coral nursery. After two months of exposure, responses differed by coral species, where P. clivosa showed declined physiology in response to combined ocean warming and acidification stress and ocean warming alone, whereas O. faveolata showed a positive response under ocean acidification. Responses to temperature could be associated with the algal symbionts harbored, as P. clivosa was dominated by the thermally sensitive Breviolum, and O. faveolata was dominated by the thermally tolerant Durusdinium. Additionally, corals were raised in well-sourced seawater that was naturally high in pCO2, which could have led to corals acclimating to acidified conditions. Of the three P. clivosa genets tested, we determined a top-performing genotype under the combined warming and acidification treatment. O. faveolata, however, displayed high genet variation by treatment and phenotypic trait, making genotype performance rankings challenging to discern. The evidence provided in this study demonstrates that high phenotypic variation in nursery-reared corals contributes to variable warming-acidification responses, suggesting that high-standing genetic variation in nursery-reared corals could support diverse coral restoration population outcomes along FCR

Microbial community succession on developing lesions on human enamel

Dental caries is one of the most common diseases in the world. However, our understanding of how the microbial community composition changes in vivo as caries develops is lacking.An in vivo model was used in a longitudinal cohort study to investigate shifts in the microbial community composition associated with the development of enamel caries.White spot lesions were generated in vivo on human teeth predetermined to be extracted for orthodontic reasons. The bacterial microbiota on sound enamel and on developing carious lesions were identified using the Human Oral Microbe Identification Microarray (HOMIM), which permits the detection of about 300 of the approximate 600 predominant bacterial species in the oral cavity.After only seven weeks, 75% of targeted teeth developed white spot lesions (8 individuals, 16 teeth). The microbial community composition of the plaque over white spot lesions differed significantly as compared to sound enamel. Twenty-five bacterial taxa, including Streptococcus mutans, Atopobium parvulum, Dialister invisus, and species of Prevotella and Scardovia, were significantly associated with initial enamel lesions. In contrast, 14 bacterial taxa, including species of Fusobacterium, Campylobacter, Kingella, and Capnocytophaga, were significantly associated with sound enamel.The bacterial community composition associated with the progression of enamel lesions is specific and much more complex than previously believed. This investigation represents one of the first longitudinally-derived studies for caries progression and supports microbial data from previous cross-sectional studies on the development of the disease. Thus, the in vivo experiments of generating lesions on teeth destined for extraction in conjunction with HOMIM analyses represent a valid model to study succession of supragingival microbial communities associated with caries development and to study efficacy of prophylactic and restorative treatments

Quality of Life and Costs in Parkinson's Disease: A Cross Sectional Study in Hungary.

BACKGROUND: Patient reported outcomes and costs of illness are useful to capture some of the multiple effects of a disease and its treatments. Our aim was to assess quality of life (QoL) and costs of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Hungary, and to analyze their associations. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted in one neurology university clinic. Clinical characteristics, PD related resource utilizations and productivity loss in the past 12 months were recorded; the Hoehn&Yahr (HY) scale, PDQ-39 and EQ-5D questionnaires were applied. Cost calculation was performed from the societal perspective. RESULTS: 110 patients (34.5% female) were involved with mean age of 63.3 (SD = 11.3) and disease duration of 8.2 (SD = 5.8) years. PDQ-39 summary score was 48.1 (SD = 13.4). The average EQ-5D score was 0.59 (SD = 0.28), and was significantly lower than the population norm in age-groups 45-74. The correlation was significant between EQ-5D and PDQ-39 (-0.47, p = 0.000), the HY scale and EQ-5D (-0.3416, p = 0.0008) and PDQ-39 (0.3419, p = 0.0006) scores. The total mean cost was euro6030.2 (SD = 6163.0)/patient/year (direct medical 35.7%, direct non-medical 29.4%, indirect cost 34.9%). A one year increase in disease duration and 0.1 decrease of the EQ-5D utility score increase the yearly costs by 8 to 10%, and 7.8%, respectively. The effect of the PDQ-39 score on total cost was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Disease severity and public health importance of PD are clearly demonstrated by the magnitude of QoL loss. PD-related costs are substantial, but are much lower in Hungary than in Western European countries. Disease duration and EQ-5D score are significant proxy of costs

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health