Applications of Expert Systems in Transport

BACKGROUND Experienced judgement and specialist knowledge are essential to the proper specification, understanding and interpretation of data and computer analyses. The human expert has traditionally supplied this knowledge and judgement with the computer doing the necessary number-crunching. However, artificial intelligence (AI) research provides ways of embodying this knowledge and judgement within computer programs. Despite an early lead in the field, UK research and developmnent into AI techniques was held back in the 1970s when the then Science Research Council took the view that the 'combinatorial explosion' of possibilities would be an insurmountable obstacle to AI developent. But in America and Japan research continued, and the surge of interest in the 1980s has been a consequence of the 'Fifth Generation Computer' research programme initiated by Japan (Feigenbaum and McCorduck; 1984). This led in Europe to the ESPRIT programme of advanced technology research, and in the UK to the Alvey programme (Department of Industry, 1982). As a result, all sectors of industry have been encouraged to consider how such advanced technology can be applied, and the transport industry is no exception. This paper sets out to explain some of the relevant techniques in simple terms, and to describe a number of situations in which transport planning and operations might be helped through their use, illustrating this by reference to the pioneering work going on in transport applications in the USA, Britain and Australia

Characterizing the transient geomorphic response to base-level fall in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Analysis of hillslope gradient, landscape relief, and channel steepness in the Daxia River basin provides evidence of a transient geomorphic response to base-level fall on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Low-gradient channels and gentle hillslopes of the upper watershed are separated from a steeper, high-relief landscape by a series of convex knickzones along channel longitudinal profiles. Downstream projection of the “relict” portions of the profiles implies ~800–850 m of incision, consistent with geologic and geomorphic records of post ~1.7 Ma incision in the lower watershed. We combine optically stimulated luminescence dating of fluvial terrace deposits to constrain incision rates downstream of knickpoints with catchment-averaged 10Be concentrations in modern sediment to estimate erosion rates in tributary basins both above and below knickpoints. Both sources of data imply landscape lowering rates of ~300 m Ma−1 below the knickpoint and ~50–100 m Ma−1 above. Field measurements of channel width (n = 48) and calculations of bankfull discharge (n = 9) allow determination of scaling relations among channel hydraulic geometry, discharge, and contributing area that we employ to estimate the patterns of basal shear stress, unit stream power, and bed load transport rate throughout the channel network. Our results imply a clear downstream increase of incision potential; this result would appear to be consistent with a detachment-limited response to imposed base-level fall, in which steepening of channels drives an increase in erosion rates. In contrast, however, we do not observe apparent narrowing of channels across the transition from slowly eroding to rapidly eroding portions of the watershed. Rather, the present-day channel morphology as well as its scaling of hydraulic geometry imply that the river is primarily adjusted to transport its sediment load and suggest that channel morphology may not always reflect the presence of knickpoints and differences in landscape relief

Relationship between advanced maternal age and timing of first developmental evaluation in children with autism

Objective: Mothers of advanced maternal age (AMA) at childbirth (age ‡35 years) may have different perceptions of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk, independent of sociodemographic factors, that may affect ASD identification. We aimed to estimate associations between AMA and both age of a child's first evaluation noting developmental concerns and time from first evaluation to first ASD diagnosis. Methods: We used data for 8-year-olds identified with ASD in the 2008 to 2012 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. We estimated differences in age at first evaluation noting developmental concerns and time to first ASD diagnosis by AMA using quantile and Cox regression. Results: Of 10,358 children with ASD, 19.7% had mothers of AMA. AMA was associated with higher educational attainment and previous live births compared with younger mothers. In unadjusted analyses, AMA was associated with earlier first evaluation noting developmental concerns (median 37 vs 40 mo) and patterns in time to first evaluation (hazard ratio: 1.12, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-1.18). Associations between AMA and evaluation timing diminished and were no longer significant after adjustment for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Children's intellectual disability did not modify associations between AMA and timing of evaluations. Conclusion: Advanced maternal age is a sociodemographic factor associated with younger age of first evaluation noting developmental concerns in children with ASD, but AMA was not independently associated likely, because it is a consequence or cofactor of maternal education and other sociodemographic characteristics. AMA may be a demographic factor to consider when aiming to screen and evaluate children at risk for ASD

Prevalence of intellectual disability among eight-year-old children from selected communities in the United States, 2014

Background: Children with intellectual disability (ID), characterized by impairments in intellectual functioning and adaptive behavior, benefit from early identification and access to services. Previous U.S. estimates used administrative data or parent report with limited information for demographic subgroups. Objective: Using empiric measures we examined ID characteristics among 8-year-old children and estimated prevalence by sex, race/ethnicity, geographic area and socioeconomic status (SES) area indicators. Methods: We analyzed data for 8-year-old children in 9 geographic areas participating in the 2014 Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. Children with ID were identified through record review of IQ test data. Census and American Community Survey data were used to estimate the denominator. Results: Overall, 11.8 per 1,000 (1.2%) had ID (IQ ≤ 70), of whom 39% (n = 998) also had autism spectrum disorder. Among children with ID, 1,823 had adaptive behavior test scores for which 64% were characterized as impaired. ID prevalence per 1,000 was 15.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 15.0–16.5) among males and 7.7 (95% CI, 7.2–8.2) among females. ID prevalence was 17.7 (95% CI, 16.6–18.9) among children who were non-Hispanic black; 12.0 (95% CI, 11.1–13.0), among Hispanic; 8.6 (95% CI, 7.1–10.4), among non-Hispanic Asian; and 8.0 (95% CI, 7.5–8.6), among non-Hispanic white. Prevalence varied across geographic areas and was inversely associated with SES. Conclusions: ID prevalence varied substantively among racial, ethnic, geographic, and SES groups. Results can inform strategies to enhance identification and improve access to services particularly for children who are minorities or living in areas with lower SES

From marine bands to hybrid flows: sedimentology of a Mississippian black shale

Organic‐rich mudstones have long been of interest as conventional and unconventional source rocks and are an important organic carbon sink. Yet the processes that deposited organic‐rich muds in epicontinental seaways are poorly understood, partly because few modern analogues exist. This study investigates the processes that transported and deposited sediment and organic matter through part of the Bowland Shale Formation, from the Mississippian Rheic–Tethys seaway. Field to micron‐scale sedimentological analysis reveals a heterogeneous succession of carbonate‐rich, siliceous, and siliciclastic, argillaceous muds. Deposition of these facies at basinal and slope locations was moderated by progradation of the nearby Pendle delta system, fourth‐order eustatic sea‐level fluctuation and localized block and basin tectonism. Marine transgressions deposited bioclastic ‘marine band’ (hemi)pelagic packages. These include abundant euhaline macrofaunal tests, and phosphatic concretions of organic matter and radiolarian tests interpreted as faecal pellets sourced from a productive water column. Lens‐rich (lenticular) mudstones, hybrid, debrite and turbidite beds successively overlie marine band packages and suggest reducing basin accommodation promoted sediment deposition via laminar and hybrid flows sourced from the basin margins. Mud lenses in lenticular mudstones lack organic linings and bioclasts and are equant in early‐cemented lenses and in plan‐view, and are largest and most abundant in mudstones overlying marine band packages. Thus, lenses likely represent partially consolidated mud clasts that were scoured and transported in bedload from the shelf or proximal slope, as a ‘shelf to basin’ conveyor, during periods of reduced basin accommodation. Candidate in situ microbial mats in strongly lenticular mudstones, and as rip‐up fragments in the down‐dip hybrid beds, suggest that these were potentially key biostabilizers of mud. Deltaic mud export was fast, despite the intrabasinal complexity, likely an order of magnitude higher than similar successions deposited in North America. Epicontinental basins remotely linked to delta systems were therefore capable of rapidly accumulating both sediment and organic matter

Dose-Response of a Norovirus GII.2 Controlled Human Challenge Model Inoculum

Background: Genogroup II noroviruses are the most common cause of acute infectious gastroenteritis. We evaluated the use of a new GII.2 inoculum in a human challenge. Methods: Forty-four healthy adults (36 secretor-positive and 8 secretor-negative for histo-blood group antigens) were challenged with ascending doses of a new safety-Tested Snow Mountain virus (SMV) GII.2 norovirus inoculum (1.2×104 to 1.2×107 genome equivalent copies [GEC]; n=38) or placebo (n=6). Illness was defined as diarrhea and/or vomiting postchallenge in subjects with evidence of infection (defined as GII.2 norovirus RNA detection in stool and/or anti-SMV immunoglobulin G [IgG] seroconversion). Results: The highest dose was associated with SMV infection in 90%, and illness in 70% of subjects with 10 of 12 secretor-positive (83%) and 4 of 8 secretor-negative (50%) becoming ill. There was no association between prechallenge anti-SMV serum IgG concentration, carbohydrate-binding blockade antibody, or salivary immunoglobulin A and infection. The median infectious dose (ID50) was 5.1×105 GEC. Conclusions: High rates of infection and illness were observed in both secretor-positive and secretor-negative subjects in this challenge study. However, a high dose will be required to achieve the target of 75% illness to make this an efficient model for evaluating potential norovirus vaccines and therapeutics. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02473224

To what extent do frameworks of reading development and the phonics screening check support the assessment of reading development in England?

The purpose of this article is to question the suitability of the phonics screening check in relation to models and theories of reading development. The article questions the appropriateness of the check by drawing on theoretical frameworks which underpin typical reading development. I examine the Simple View of Reading developed by Gough and Tunmer and Ehri’s model of reading development. The article argues that the assessment of children’s development in reading should be underpinned and informed by a developmental framework which identifies the sequential skills in reading development

Measurement of the W+W- Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s)=1.96 TeV using Dilepton Events

We present a measurement of the W+W- production cross section using 184/pb of ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab. Using the dilepton decay channel W+W- -> l+l-vvbar, where the charged leptons can be either electrons or muons, we find 17 candidate events compared to an expected background of 5.0+2.2-0.8 events. The resulting W+W- production cross section measurement of sigma(ppbar -> W+W-) = 14.6 +5.8 -5.1 (stat) +1.8 -3.0 (syst) +-0.9 (lum) pb agrees well with the Standard Model expectation.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables. To be submitted to Physical Review Letter

Volume I. Introduction to DUNE

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and whether protons eventually decay—these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our universe, its current state, and its eventual fate. The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is an international world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions as it searches for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation, stands ready to capture supernova neutrino bursts, and seeks to observe nucleon decay as a signature of a grand unified theory underlying the standard model. The DUNE far detector technical design report (TDR) describes the DUNE physics program and the technical designs of the single- and dual-phase DUNE liquid argon TPC far detector modules. This TDR is intended to justify the technical choices for the far detector that flow down from the high-level physics goals through requirements at all levels of the Project. Volume I contains an executive summary that introduces the DUNE science program, the far detector and the strategy for its modular designs, and the organization and management of the Project. The remainder of Volume I provides more detail on the science program that drives the choice of detector technologies and on the technologies themselves. It also introduces the designs for the DUNE near detector and the DUNE computing model, for which DUNE is planning design reports. Volume II of this TDR describes DUNE\u27s physics program in detail. Volume III describes the technical coordination required for the far detector design, construction, installation, and integration, and its organizational structure. Volume IV describes the single-phase far detector technology. A planned Volume V will describe the dual-phase technology