Ozone Response to Aircraft Emissions: Sensitivity Studies with Two-dimensional Models

Our first intercomparison/assessment of the effects of a proposed high-speed civil transport (HSCT) fleet on the stratosphere is presented. These model calculations should be considered more as sensitivity studies, primarily designed to serve the following purposes: (1) to allow for intercomparison of model predictions; (2) to focus on the range of fleet operations and engine specifications giving minimal environmental impact; and (3) to provide the basis for future assessment studies. The basic scenarios were chosen to be as realistic as possible, using the information available on anticipated developments in technology. They are not to be interpreted as a commitment or goal for environmental acceptability

Survey of Radionuclide Distributions Resulting from the Church Rock, New Mexico, Uranium Mill Tailings Pond Dam Failure

An intensive site survey and on-site analysis program were conducted to evaluate the distribution of four radionucliGes in the general vicinity of Gallup, New Mexico, subsequent to the accidental breach of a uranium mill tailings pond dam and the release of a large quantity of tailings pond materials. The objective of this work was to determine the distribution and concentration levels of {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra, {sup 230}Th, and {sup 238}U in the arroyo that is immediately adjacent to the uranium tailings pond (pipeline arroyo) and in the Rio Puerco arroyo into which the pipeline arroyo drains. An intensive survey between the United Nuclear Corporation (UNC) Church Rock Mill site and the New Mexico-Arizona state border was performed. Sampling locations were established at approximately 500-ft intervals along the arroyo. During the weeks of September 24 through October 5, 1979, a series of samples was collected from alternate sampling locations along the arroyo. The purpose of this collection of samples and their subsequent analysis was to provide an immediate evaluation of the extent and the levels of radioactive contamination. The data obtained from this extensive survey were then compared to action levels which had been proposed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and were adapted by the New Mexico Environmental Improvement Division (NMEID) for {sup 230}Th and {sup 226}Ra concentrations that would require site cleanup. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory/Nuclear Regulatory Commission mobile laboratory van was on-site at the UNC Church Rock Mill from September 22, 1979, through December 13, 1979, and was manned by one or more PNL personnel for all but four weeks of this time period. Approximately 1200 samples associated with the Rio Puerco survey were analyzed 1n the laboratory. An additional 1200 samples related to the Rio Puerco cleanup operations which the United Nuclear Corporation was conducting were analyzed on-site in the mobile laboratory. The purpose of these analyses was to determine the effectiveness of the cleanup operations that were ongoing and to evaluate what additional cleanup would be required. This on-site analysis of radioactive contamination constituted the principal task of this project, with the identification of those portions of the arroyo exceeding the NMEID proposed cleanup criteria being the major output. Additiond1 tasks included an evaluation of the initial soil sampling scheme (letter from T. Wolff [NMEID] to J. Abiss [UNC]. oated September 25, 1979) and the proposed NMEID verification sampling scheme (letter from T. Buhl [NMEID] to H. Miller [NRC]. dated April 23, 1980)

Trajectory model simulations of ozone (O 3) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the lower stratosphere

A domain-filling, forward trajectory model originally developed for simulating stratospheric water vapor is used to simulate ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) in the lower stratosphere. Trajectories are initialized in the upper troposphere, and the circulation is based on reanalysis wind fields. In addition, chemical production and loss rates along trajectories are included using calculations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The trajectory model results show good overall agreement with satellite observations from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) in terms of spatial structure and seasonal variability. The trajectory model results also agree well with the Eulerian WACCM simulations. Analysis of the simulated tracers shows that seasonal variations in tropical upwelling exerts strong influence on O3 and CO in the tropical lower stratosphere, and the coupled seasonal cycles provide a useful test of the transport simulations. Interannual variations in the tracers are also closely coupled to changes in upwelling, and the trajectory model can accurately capture and explain observed changes during 2005–2011. This demonstrates the importance of variability in tropical upwelling in forcing chemical changes in the tropical lower stratosphere

Modelling the Inorganic Bromine Partitioning in the Tropical Tropopause over the Pacific Ocean

The stratospheric inorganic bromine burden (Bry) arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSL org ), and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species, is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modelled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSL org of two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013 carried out over eastern Pacific and ATTREX 2014 carried out over the western Pacific) and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks) using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem), we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights BrO represents ~ 43 % and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br/BrO >1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA), ozone concentration and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO 2 were found to be the dominant night-time species with ~ 61% and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) , and total inorganic chlorine (Cly).Fil: Navarro, María A.. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Saiz-lopez, Alfonso. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Cuevas, Carlos Alberto. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Fernandez, Rafael Pedro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Universidad Tecnologica Nacional. Facultad Regional Mendoza. Secretaría de Ciencia, Tecnología y Postgrado; ArgentinaFil: Atlas, Elliot. University of Miami; Estados UnidosFil: Rodriguez Lloeveras, Xavier. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas. Instituto de Química Física; EspañaFil: Kinnison, Douglas E.. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Lamarque, Jean Francois. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Tilmes, Simone. National Center For Atmospheric Research. Amospheric Chemistry División; Estados UnidosFil: Thornberry, Troy. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Rollins, Andrew. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Elkins, James W.. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Hintsa, Eric J.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados UnidosFil: Moore, Fred L.. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos. Earth System Research Laboratory; Estados Unido

Large CSC chamber for the PHENIX muon detector with ultra thin cathode foils

The muon tracking system for the PHENIX detector at RHIC uses cathode strip chambers (CSC) for the tracking detectors. These detectors must provide 100 μm resolution per measurement plane to give satisfactory mass resolution of the vector mesons. The intermediate station (station 2) must have a very small radiation length, and large acceptance. We have prototyped a full scale CSC chamber to test the use of 25 micron metalized mylar foils for the cathode strips at station 2. The full scale prototype detector is a trapezoid 2.3 meters high and 2.3 meters wide. The foil and wire planes are mounted on thin 3,2 mm thick by 7.5 cm wide laminated frames and the tension of the planes is maintained by the two large 7.5 cm widex3.0 cm thick aluminum support frames. The total radiation length of the active region is 8.5x104

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics

The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels

Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative

We provide an overview of the REF-C1SD specified-dynamics experiment that was conducted as part of phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The REF-C1SD experiment, which consisted of mainly nudged general circulation models (GCMs) constrained with (re)analysis fields, was designed to examine the influence of the large-scale circulation on past trends in atmospheric composition. The REF-C1SD simulations were produced across various model frameworks and are evaluated in terms of how well they represent different measures of the dynamical and transport circulations. In the troposphere there are large (∼40 %) differences in the climatological mean distributions, seasonal cycle amplitude, and trends of the meridional and vertical winds. In the stratosphere there are similarly large (∼50 %) differences in the magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle amplitude of the transformed Eulerian mean circulation and among various chemical and idealized tracers. At the same time, interannual variations in nearly all quantities are very well represented, compared to the underlying reanalyses. We show that the differences in magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle are not related to the use of different reanalysis products; rather, we show they are associated with how the simulations were implemented, by which we refer both to how the large-scale flow was prescribed and to biases in the underlying free-running models. In most cases these differences are shown to be as large or even larger than the differences exhibited by free-running simulations produced using the exact same models, which are also shown to be more dynamically consistent. Overall, our results suggest that care must be taken when using specified-dynamics simulations to examine the influence of large-scale dynamics on composition

Large-Scale Transport into the Arctic: The Roles of the Midlatitude Jet and the Hadley Cell

Transport from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes to the Arctic plays a crucial role in determining the abundance of trace gases and aerosols that are important to Arctic climate via impacts on radiation and chemistry. Here we examine this transport using an idealized tracer with a fixed lifetime and predominantly midlatitude land-based sources in models participating in the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We show that there is a 25%-45% difference in the Arctic concentrations of this tracer among the models. This spread is correlated with the spread in the location of the Pacific jet, as well as the spread in the location of the Hadley Cell (HC) edge, which varies consistently with jet latitude. Our results suggest that it is likely that the HC-related zonal-mean meridional transport rather than the jet-related eddy mixing is the major contributor to the inter-model spread in the transport of land-based tracers into the Arctic. Specifically, in models with a more northern jet, the HC generally extends further north and the tracer source region is mostly covered by surface southward flow associated with the lower branch of the HC, resulting in less efficient transport poleward to the Arctic. During boreal summer, there are poleward biases in jet location in free-running models, and these models likely underestimate the rate of transport into the Arctic. Models using specified dynamics do not have biases in the jet location, but do have biases in the surface meridional flow, which may result in differences in transport into the Arctic. In addition to the land-based tracer, the midlatitude-to-Arctic transport is further examined by another idealized tracer with zonally uniform sources. With equal sources from both land and ocean, the inter-model spread of this zonally uniform tracer is more related to variations in parameterized convection over oceans rather than variations in HC extent, particularly during boreal winter. This suggests that transport of land-based and oceanic tracers or aerosols towards the Arctic differs in pathways and therefore their corresponding inter-model variabilities result from different physical processes

On the discrepancy of HCl processing in the core of the wintertime polar vortices

More than 3 decades after the discovery of the ozone hole, the processes involved in its formation are believed to be understood in great detail. Current state-of-the-art models can reproduce the observed chemical composition in the springtime polar stratosphere, especially regarding the quantification of halogen-catalysed ozone loss. However, we report here on a discrepancy between simulations and observations during the less-well-studied period of the onset of chlorine activation. During this period, which in the Antarctic is between May and July, model simulations significantly overestimate HCl, one of the key chemical species, inside the polar vortex during polar night. This HCl discrepancy is also observed in the Arctic. The discrepancy exists in different models to varying extents; here, we discuss three independent ones, the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) as well as the Eulerian models SD-WACCM (the specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) and TOMCAT/SLIMCAT. The HCl discrepancy points to some unknown process in the formulation of stratospheric chemistry that is currently not represented in the models. We characterise the HCl discrepancy in space and time for the Lagrangian chemistry–transport model CLaMS, in which HCl in the polar vortex core stays about constant from June to August in the Antarctic, while the observations indicate a continuous HCl decrease over this period. The somewhat smaller discrepancies in the Eulerian models SD-WACCM and TOMCAT/SLIMCAT are also presented. Numerical diffusion in the transport scheme of the Eulerian models is identified to be a likely cause for the inter-model differences. Although the missing process has not yet been identified, we investigate different hypotheses on the basis of the characteristics of the discrepancy. An underestimated HCl uptake into the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) particles that consist mainly of H₂O and HNO₃ cannot explain it due to the temperature correlation of the discrepancy. Also, a direct photolysis of particulate HNO₃ does not resolve the discrepancy since it would also cause changes in chlorine chemistry in late winter which are not observed. The ionisation caused by galactic cosmic rays provides an additional NOx and HOx source that can explain only about 20% of the discrepancy. However, the model simulations show that a hypothetical decomposition of particulate HNO₃ by some other process not dependent on the solar elevation, e.g. involving galactic cosmic rays, may be a possible mechanism to resolve the HCl discrepancy. Since the discrepancy reported here occurs during the beginning of the chlorine activation period, where the ozone loss rates are small, there is only a minor impact of about 2% on the overall ozone column loss over the course of Antarctic winter and spring