Securities trading of concepts (STOC)

Identifying winning new product concepts can be a challenging process that requires insight into private consumer preferences. To measure consumer preferences for new product concepts, the authors apply a “securities trading of concepts,” or STOC, approach, in which new product concepts are traded as financial securities. The authors apply this method because market prices are known to efficiently collect and aggregate private information regarding the economic value of goods, services, and firms, particularly when trading financial securities. This research compares the STOC approach against stated-choice, conjoint, constant-sum, and longitudinal revealed-preference data. The authors also place STOC in the context of previous research on prediction markets and experimental economics. Across multiple product categories, the authors test whether STOC (1) is more cost efficient than other methods, (2) passes validity tests, (3) measures expectations of others, and (4) reveals individual preferences, not just those of the crowd. The results show that traders exhibit a self-preference bias when trading. Ultimately, STOC offers two key advantages over traditional market research methods: cost efficiency and scalability. For new product development teams deciding how to invest resources, this scalability may be especially important in the Web 2.0 world.United States. Office of Naval Research (Contract Number N00014-93-1-3085)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Information Technology Research (Contract Number IIS-0085836)National Science Foundation (U.S.). Knowledge and Distributed Intelligence Initiative (Contract Number DMS-9872936)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Contract Number IIS-9800032)United States. Office of Naval Research (United States. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) (Contract Number N00014-00-1-0907

Reduced level of arousal and increased mortality in adult acute medical admissions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Reduced level of arousal is commonly observed in medical admissions and may predict in-hospital mortality. Delirium and reduced level of arousal are closely related. We systematically reviewed and conducted a meta-analysis of studies in adult acute medical patients of the relationship between reduced level of arousal on admission and in-hospital mortality. Methods We conducted a systematic review (PROSPERO: CRD42016022048), searching MEDLINE and EMBASE. We included studies of adult patients admitted with acute medical illness with level of arousal assessed on admission and mortality rates reported. We performed meta-analysis using a random effects model. Results From 23,941 studies we included 21 with 14 included in the meta-analysis. Mean age range was 33.4 - 83.8 years. Studies considered unselected general medical admissions (8 studies, n=13,039) or specific medical conditions (13 studies, n=38,882). Methods of evaluating level of arousal varied. The prevalence of reduced level of arousal was 3.1%-76.9% (median 13.5%). Mortality rates were 1.7%-58% (median 15.9%). Reduced level of arousal was associated with higher in-hospital mortality (pooled OR 5.71; 95% CI 4.21-7.74; low quality evidence: high risk of bias, clinical heterogeneity and possible publication bias). Conclusions Reduced level of arousal on hospital admission may be a strong predictor of in-hospital mortality. Most evidence was of low quality. Reduced level of arousal is highly specific to delirium, better formal detection of hypoactive delirium and implementation of care pathways may improve outcomes. Future studies to assess the impact of interventions on in-hospital mortality should use validated assessments of both level of arousal and delirium

Measurement of WγW\gamma and ZγZ\gamma Production in ppˉp\bar{p} Collisions at s\sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV

The Standard Model predictions for $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ production are tested using an integrated luminosity of 200 pb$^{-1}$ of \ppbar collision data collected at the Collider Detector at Fermilab. The cross sections are measured selecting leptonic decays of the $W$ and $Z$ bosons, and photons with transverse energy $E_T>7$ GeV that are well separated from leptons. The production cross sections and kinematic distributions for the $W\gamma$ and $Z\gamma$ are compared to SM predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, submitted to PR

Measurement of the Lifetime Difference Between B_s Mass Eigenstates

We present measurements of the lifetimes and polarization amplitudes for B_s --> J/psi phi and B_d --> J/psi K*0 decays. Lifetimes of the heavy (H) and light (L) mass eigenstates in the B_s system are separately measured for the first time by determining the relative contributions of amplitudes with definite CP as a function of the decay time. Using 203 +/- 15 B_s decays, we obtain tau_L = (1.05 +{0.16}/-{0.13} +/- 0.02) ps and tau_H = (2.07 +{0.58}/-{0.46} +/- 0.03) ps. Expressed in terms of the difference DeltaGamma_s and average Gamma_s, of the decay rates of the two eigenstates, the results are DeltaGamma_s/Gamma_s = (65 +{25}/-{33} +/- 1)%, and DeltaGamma_s = (0.47 +{0.19}/-{0.24} +/- 0.01) inverse ps.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables; as published in Physical Review Letters on 16 March 2005; revisions are for length and typesetting only, no changes in results or conclusion

Measurement of the ttbar Production Cross Section in ppbar Collisions at sqrt{s}=1.96 TeV using Lepton + Jets Events with Secondary Vertex b-tagging

We present a measurement of the ttbar production cross section using events with one charged lepton and jets from ppbar collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 1.96 TeV. In these events, heavy flavor quarks from top quark decay are identified with a secondary vertex tagging algorithm. From 162 pb-1 of data collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab, a total of 48 candidate events are selected, where 13.5 +- 1.8 events are expected from background contributions. We measure a ttbar production cross section of 5.6^{+1.2}_{-1.1} (stat.) ^{+0.9}_{0.6} (syst.) pb.Comment: 28 pages, 20 figures. Published in Physical Review

Search for ZZ and ZW Production in ppbar Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We present a search for ZZ and ZW vector boson pair production in ppbar collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV using the leptonic decay channels ZZ --> ll nu nu, ZZ --> l l l' l' and ZW --> l l l' nu. In a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 194 pb-1 collected with the Collider Detector at Fermilab, 3 candidate events are found with an expected background of 1.0 +/- 0.2 events. We set a 95% confidence level upper limit of 15.2 pb on the cross section for ZZ plus ZW production, compared to the standard model prediction of 5.0 +/- 0.4 pb.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures. This version is accepted for publication by Phys. Rev. D Rapid Communication

Measurement of the Cross Section for Prompt Diphoton Production in p-pbar Collisions at sqrt(s) = 1.96 TeV

We report a measurement of the rate of prompt diphoton production in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}=1.96 ~\hbox{TeV}$ using a data sample of 207 pb$^{-1}$ collected with the upgraded Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF II). The background from non-prompt sources is determined using a statistical method based on differences in the electromagnetic showers. The cross section is measured as a function of the diphoton mass, the transverse momentum of the diphoton system, and the azimuthal angle between the two photons and is found to be consistent with perturbative QCD predictions.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures,revtex4. Version accepted by PRL, but with cross section tables i

Inclusive jet cross section in pˉp{\bar p p} collisions at s=1.8\sqrt{s}=1.8 TeV

The inclusive jet differential cross section has been measured for jet transverse energies, $E_T$, from 15 to 440 GeV, in the pseudorapidity region 0.1$\leq | \eta| \leq$0.7. The results are based on 19.5 pb$^{-1}$ of data collected by the CDF collaboration at the Fermilab Tevatron collider. The data are compared with QCD predictions for various sets of parton distribution functions. The cross section for jets with $E_T>200$ GeV is significantly higher than current predictions based on O($\alpha_s^3$) perturbative QCD calculations. Various possible explanations for the high-$E_T$ excess are discussed.Comment: 8 pages with 2 eps uu-encoded figures Submitted to Physical Review Letter

Search for charged Higgs decays of the top quark using hadronic tau decays

We present the result of a search for charged Higgs decays of the top quark, produced in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\surd s =$ 1.8 TeV. When the charged Higgs is heavy and decays to a tau lepton, which subsequently decays hadronically, the resulting events have a unique signature: large missing transverse energy and the low-charged-multiplicity tau. Data collected in the period 1992-1993 at the Collider Detector at Fermilab, corresponding to 18.7$\pm$0.7~pb$^{-1}$, exclude new regions of combined top quark and charged Higgs mass, in extensions to the standard model with two Higgs doublets.Comment: uuencoded, gzipped tar file of LaTeX and 6 Postscript figures; 11 pp; submitted to Phys. Rev.

Inflation and Dark Energy from spectroscopy at z > 2

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at z < 1, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. The large cosmological volume at 2 < z < 5, together with the ability to efficiently target high-$z$ galaxies with known techniques, enables large gains in the study of Inflation and Dark Energy. A future spectroscopic survey can test the Gaussianity of the initial conditions up to a factor of ~50 better than our current bounds, crossing the crucial theoretical threshold of $\sigma(f_{NL}^{\rm local})$ of order unity that separates single field and multi-field models. Simultaneously, it can measure the fraction of Dark Energy at the percent level up to $z = 5$, thus serving as an unprecedented test of the standard model and opening up a tremendous discovery space