Better insurance could effectively mitigate the increase in economic growth losses from U.S. hurricanes under global warming

Global warming is likely to increase the proportion of intense hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze how this may affect economic growth. To this end, we introduce an event-based macroeconomic growth model that temporally resolves how growth depends on the heterogeneity of hurricane shocks. For the United States, we find that economic growth losses scale superlinearly with shock heterogeneity. We explain this by a disproportional increase of indirect losses with the magnitude of direct damage, which can lead to an incomplete recovery of the economy between consecutive intense landfall events. On the basis of two different methods to estimate the future frequency increase of intense hurricanes, we project annual growth losses to increase between 10 and 146% in a 2°C world compared to the period 1980–2014. Our modeling suggests that higher insurance coverage can compensate for this climate change–induced increase in growth losses

Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: Short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development

After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term

Future heat stress to reduce people’s purchasing power

With increasing carbon emissions rising temperatures are likely to impact our economies and societies profoundly. In particular, it has been shown that heat stress can strongly reduce labor productivity. The resulting economic perturbations can propagate along the global supply network. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that output losses due to heat stress alone are expected to increase by about 24% within the next 20 years, if no additional adaptation measures are taken. The subsequent market response with rising prices and supply shortages strongly reduces the consumers’ purchasing power in almost all countries including the US and Europe with particularly strong effects in India, Brazil, and Indonesia. As a consequence, the producing sectors in many regions temporarily benefit from higher selling prices while decreasing their production in quantity, whereas other countries suffer losses within their entire national economy. Our results stress that, even though climate shocks may stimulate economic activity in some regions and some sectors, their unpredictability exerts increasing pressure on people’s livelihood

Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes

The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences—a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between $\gt$ 7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies—an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts

Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy

Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate . The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes

Effects of Physical Exercise Combined with Nutritional Supplements on Aging Brain Related Structures and Functions: A Systematic Review

Age-related decline in gray and white brain matter goes together with cognitive depletion. To influence cognitive functioning in elderly, several types of physical exercise and nutritional intervention have been performed. This paper systematically reviews the potential additive and complementary effects of nutrition/nutritional supplements and physical exercise on cognition. The search strategy was developed for EMBASE, Medline, PubMed, Cochrane, CINAHL, and PsycInfo databases and focused on the research question: “Is the combination of physical exercise with nutrition/nutritional supplementation more effective than nutrition/nutritional supplementation or physical exercise alone in effecting on brain structure, metabolism, and/or function?” Both mammalian and human studies were included. In humans, randomized controlled trials that evaluated the effects of nutrition/nutritional supplements and physical exercise on cognitive functioning and associated parameters in healthy elderly (>65 years) were included. The systematic search included English and German language literature without any limitation of publication date. The search strategy yielded a total of 3129 references of which 67 studies met the inclusion criteria; 43 human and 24 mammalian, mainly rodent, studies. Three out of 43 human studies investigated a nutrition/physical exercise combination and reported no additive effects. In rodent studies, additive effects were found for docosahexaenoic acid supplementation when combined with physical exercise. Although feasible combinations of physical exercise/nutritional supplements are available for influencing the brain, only a few studies evaluated which possible combinations of nutrition/nutritional supplementation and physical exercise might have an effect on brain structure, metabolism and/or function. The reason for no clear effects of combinatory approaches in humans might be explained by the misfit between the combinations of nutritional methods with the physical interventions in the sense that they were not selected on sharing of similar neuronal mechanisms. Based on the results from this systematic review, future human studies should focus on the combined effect of docosahexaenoic acid supplementation and physical exercise that contains elements of (motor) learning