The Impact of Covid-19 on Future Higher-Age Mortality

Covid-19 has predominantly affected mortality at high ages. It kills by inflaming and clogging the air sacs in the lungs, depriving the body of oxygen ‒ inducing hypoxia ‒ which closes down essential organs, in particular the heart, kidneys and liver, and causes blood clots (which can lead to stroke or pulmonary embolism) and neurological malfunction. Evidence from different countries points to the fact that people who die from Covid-19 are often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group. This is true for England & Wales – the two countries we focus on in this study. The implication is that the years of life lost through early death are less than the average for each age group, with how much less being a source of considerable debate. We argue that many of those who die from coronavirus would have died anyway in the relatively near future due to their existing frailties or co-morbidities. We demonstrate how to capture this link to poorer-than-average health using a model in which individual deaths are ‘accelerated’ ahead of schedule due to Covid-19. The model structure and its parameterization build on the observation that Covid-19 mortality by age is approximately proportional to all-cause mortality. This, in combination with current predictions of total deaths, results in the important conclusion that, everything else being equal, the impact of Covid-19 on the mortality rates of the surviving population will be very modest. Specifically, the degree of anti-selection is likely to be very small, since the life expectancy of survivors does not increase by a significant amount over pre-pandemic levels. We also analyze the degree to which Covid-19 mortality varies with socio-economic status. Headline statistics suggest that the most deprived groups have been disproportionately affected by Covid-19. However, once we control for regional differences in mortality rates, Covid-19 deaths in both the most and least deprived groups are also proportional to the all-cause mortality of these groups. However, the groups in between have approximately 10-15% lower Covid-19 deaths compared with their all-cause mortality. We argue that useful lessons about the potential pattern of accelerated deaths from Covid-19 can be drawn from examining deaths from respiratory diseases, especially at different age ranges. We also argue that it is possible to draw useful lessons about volatility spikes in Covid-19 deaths from examining past seasonal flu epidemics. However, there is an important difference. Whereas the spikes in seasonal flu increase with age, our finding that Covid-19 death rates are approximately proportional to all-cause mortality suggests that any spike in Covid-19 mortality in percentage terms would be similar across all age ranges. Finally, we discuss some of the indirect consequences for future mortality of the pandemic and the ‘lockdown’ measures governments have imposed to contain it. For example, there is evidence that some surviving patients at all ages who needed intensive care could end up with a new impairment, such as organ damage, which will reduce their life expectancy. There is also evidence that many people in lockdown did not seek a timely medical assessment for a potential new illness, such as cancer, or deferred seeking treatment for an existing serious illness, with the consequence that non-Covid-19-related mortality rates could increase in future. Self-isolation during lockdown has contributed to an increase in alcohol and drug consumption by some people which might, in turn, reduce their life expectancy. If another consequence of the pandemic is a recession and/or an acceleration in job automation, resulting in long-term unemployment, then this could lead to so-called ‘deaths of despair’ in future. Other people, by contrast, might permanently change their social behaviour or seek treatments that delay the impact or onset of age-related diseases, one of the primary factors that make people more susceptible to the virus – both of which could have the effect of increasing their life expectancy. It is, however, too early to quantify these possibilities, although it is conceivable that these indirect consequences could have a bigger impact on future average life expectancy than the direct consequences measured by the accelerated deaths model

Front Propagation and Diffusion in the A <--> A + A Hard-core Reaction on a Chain

We study front propagation and diffusion in the reaction-diffusion system A $\leftrightharpoons$ A + A on a lattice. On each lattice site at most one A particle is allowed at any time. In this paper, we analyze the problem in the full range of parameter space, keeping the discrete nature of the lattice and the particles intact. Our analysis of the stochastic dynamics of the foremost occupied lattice site yields simple expressions for the front speed and the front diffusion coefficient which are in excellent agreement with simulation results.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev.

Emergence of pulled fronts in fermionic microscopic particle models

We study the emergence and dynamics of pulled fronts described by the Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piscounov (FKPP) equation in the microscopic reaction-diffusion process A + A A$ on the lattice when only a particle is allowed per site. To this end we identify the parameter that controls the strength of internal fluctuations in this model, namely, the number of particles per correlated volume. When internal fluctuations are suppressed, we explictly see the matching between the deterministic FKPP description and the microscopic particle model.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. E as a Rapid Communicatio

On the global hydration kinetics of tricalcium silicate cement

We reconsider a number of measurements for the overall hydration kinetics of tricalcium silicate pastes having an initial water to cement weight ratio close to 0.5. We find that the time dependent ratio of hydrated and unhydrated silica mole numbers can be well characterized by two power-laws in time, $x/(1-x)\sim (t/t_x)^\psi$. For early times $t < t_x$ we find an `accelerated' hydration ($\psi = 5/2$) and for later times $t > t_x$ a `deaccelerated' behavior ($\psi = 1/2$). The crossover time is estimated as $t_x \approx 16 hours$. We interpret these results in terms of a global second order rate equation indicating that (a) hydrates catalyse the hydration process for $t<t_x$, (b) they inhibit further hydration for $t > t_x$ and (c) the value of the associated second order rate constant is of magnitude 6x10^{-7} - 7x10^{-6} liter mol^{-1} s^{-1}. We argue, by considering the hydration process actually being furnished as a diffusion limited precipitation that the exponents $\psi = 5/2$ and $\psi = 1/2$ directly indicate a preferentially `plate' like hydrate microstructure. This is essentially in agreement with experimental observations of cellular hydrate microstructures for this class of materials.Comment: RevTeX macros, 6 pages, 4 postscript figure

Constraining dark energy fluctuations with supernova correlations

We investigate constraints on dark energy fluctuations using type Ia supernovae. If dark energy is not in the form of a cosmological constant, that is if the equation of state is not equal to -1, we expect not only temporal, but also spatial variations in the energy density. Such fluctuations would cause local variations in the universal expansion rate and directional dependences in the redshift-distance relation. We present a scheme for relating a power spectrum of dark energy fluctuations to an angular covariance function of standard candle magnitude fluctuations. The predictions for a phenomenological model of dark energy fluctuations are compared to observational data in the form of the measured angular covariance of Hubble diagram magnitude residuals for type Ia supernovae in the Union2 compilation. The observational result is consistent with zero dark energy fluctuations. However, due to the limitations in statistics, current data still allow for quite general dark energy fluctuations as long as they are in the linear regime.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, matches the published versio

Search for the Rare Decay KL --> pi0 ee

The KTeV/E799 experiment at Fermilab has searched for the rare kaon decay KL--> pi0ee. This mode is expected to have a significant CP violating component. The measurement of its branching ratio could support the Standard Model or could indicate the existence of new physics. This letter reports new results from the 1999-2000 data set. One event is observed with an expected background at 0.99 +/- 0.35 events. We set a limit on the branching ratio of 3.5 x 10^(-10) at the 90% confidence level. Combining the results with the dataset taken in 1997 yields the final KTeV result: BR(KL --> pi0 ee) < 2.8 x 10^(-10) at 90% CL.Comment: 4 pages, three figure

Orbital state and magnetic properties of LiV_2 O_4

LiV_2 O_4 is one of the most puzzling compounds among transition metal oxides because of its heavy fermion like behavior at low temperatures. In this paper we present results for the orbital state and magnetic properties of LiV_2 O_4 obtained from a combination of density functional theory within the local density approximation and dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). The DMFT equations are solved by quantum Monte Carlo simulations. The trigonal crystal field splits the V 3d orbitals such that the a_{1g} and e_{g}^{pi} orbitals cross the Fermi level, with the former being slightly lower in energy and narrower in bandwidth. In this situation, the d-d Coulomb interaction leads to an almost localization of one electron per V ion in the a_{1g} orbital, while the e_{g}^{pi} orbitals form relatively broad bands with 1/8 filling. 2The theoretical high-temperature paramagnetic susceptibility chi(T) follows a Curie-Weiss law with an effective paramagnetic moment p_{eff}=1.65 in agreement with the experimental results.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, 2 table

Proposal for the numerical solution of planar QCD

Using quenched reduction, we propose a method for the numerical calculation of meson correlation functions in the planar limit of QCD. General features of the approach are outlined, and an example is given in the context of two-dimensional QCD.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures, uses axodraw.sty, To appear in Physical Review

First cosmology results using SNe Ia from the dark energy survey: analysis, systematic uncertainties, and validation

International audienceWe present the analysis underpinning the measurement of cosmological parameters from 207 spectroscopically classified type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN), spanning a redshift range of 0.01

First cosmology results using type Ia supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey: constraints on cosmological parameters

We present the first cosmological parameter constraints using measurements of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). The analysis uses a subsample of 207 spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia from the first three years of DES-SN, combined with a low-redshift sample of 122 SNe from the literature. Our "DES-SN3YR" result from these 329 SNe Ia is based on a series of companion analyses and improvements covering SN Ia discovery, spectroscopic selection, photometry, calibration, distance bias corrections, and evaluation of systematic uncertainties. For a flat LCDM model we find a matter density Omega_m = 0.331 +_ 0.038. For a flat wCDM model, and combining our SN Ia constraints with those from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), we find a dark energy equation of state w = -0.978 +_ 0.059, and Omega_m = 0.321 +_ 0.018. For a flat w0waCDM model, and combining probes from SN Ia, CMB and baryon acoustic oscillations, we find w0 = -0.885 +_ 0.114 and wa = -0.387 +_ 0.430. These results are in agreement with a cosmological constant and with previous constraints using SNe Ia (Pantheon, JLA)