Texas Forestry Paper No. 19

Ad valorem taxes on timberland in northeast texashttps://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/texas_forestry_papers/1027/thumbnail.jp

CEO incentives and the cost of debt

ABSTRACT Motivated by concerns that stock-based compensation might lead to excessive risk-taking, this paper examines the relations between CEO incentives and the cost of debt. Unlike prior research, this paper uses the sensitivities of CEO stock and option portfolios to stock price (delta) and stock return volatility (vega) to measure CEO incentives. Higher delta (vega) is predicted to be related to less (greater) risk-seeking, and thus lower (higher) cost of debt. The results show that yield spreads on new debt issues are lower for firms with higher CEO delta, and are unrelated to CEO vega. While yield spreads are higher for firms whose CEOs hold more shares and options, a sample firm at the 3 rd quartile level of each of this study's CEO incentive variables would expect an estimated 26 basis point reduction in yield spread on a new debt issue, relative to a sample firm at the median level of the CEO variables. In sum, CEO incentives are related to a lower cost of debt. Helpful comments from workshop participants at the University of Missouri and the American Accounting Association national meeting (Chicago) Midwest Regional meeting (St. Louis) are appreciated

Effects of Ponderosa Pine Ecological Restoration on Forest Soils and Understory Vegetation in Northern Arizona

The human exclusion of wildfire and overgrazing by livestock since settlement have caused dramatic changes in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl ex Laws) forest ecosystems. These changes include increased numbers of tree stems, reduced understory cover and diversity, and the introduction of invasive, non-native understory species. This study evaluated the coverage and species composition of understory vegetation present in the “cool-season” (late spring and early summer) in a ponderosa pine forest on grazed and ungrazed plots that had undergone restoration treatments on three different soil/geologic parent material types near Flagstaff, Arizona, twelve years after tree thinning and grazing exclosure treatments were applied. Several measured soil properties, such as soil respiration and temperature, were also evaluated in this study. Species richness of “cool-season” vegetation was influenced more by grazing practices than restoration treatments. Differences could be less or greater when vegetation that is active later in the season is measured. Vegetative cover was significantly influenced by restoration treatments (9.3% cover under open canopies and 6.5% under dense canopies), probably due to differences in competition for light and other resources (i.e. soil moisture and nutrients). Unlike finding by Abella et al. (2015), who studied “warm-season” vegetation, “cool-season” understory cover was not influenced by soil parent material type in this study, which might suggest that differences in understory cover due to soil properties are only seen shortly after restoration treatments are applied, or the time of year vegetation is evaluated may play a role in the differences seen. Soil respiration was highest on limestone soil parent material type (3.3 g C-CO2 m-2 day-1), and soil temperature was lowest under closed canopy treatments (15°C)

The impact of azithromycin therapy on the airway microbiota in asthma

There is interest in the use of macrolide antibiotics in asthma. Macrolides have been shown to improve airway hyperresponsiveness (AHR) and measures of airway inflammation.The degree of AHR may relate to the microbiota present in the airways, with a recent study reporting that patients with asthma with a significant improvement in AHR following treatment with clarithromycin had a higher bacterial diversity prior to treatment. To our knowledge, the impact on the asthmatic airway microbiota of an antibiotic has not been reported and we therefore set out to establish if macrolide therapy was associated with a change in airway microbiota in asthma

Stock Market Rewards for Earnings that Beat Analyst Earnings Forecasts when the Economy is Unforecastable

This study examines whether and why the stock market assigns an incremental premium to the act of beating analyst earnings forecasts when the economy is unforecastable. Our study uses a novel measure of macroeconomic (macro) uncertainty from Jurado et al. (2015) that captures periods during which the real economy is not forecastable and a regression model that controls for the forecast error throughout the quarter. Results show that during high macro uncertainty periods, the market assigns a greater premium to earnings that beat analyst earnings forecasts compared to the premium assigned to these earnings during low macro uncertainty periods. We also report a lower likelihood of managing earnings to beat analyst earnings forecasts during high macro uncertainty periods, suggesting higher accounting information quality. We further show that the incremental premium in high macro uncertainty periods is mainly concentrated within the group of firms that have both low liquidity risk and high accounting information quality. Evidence from our study should be relevant to those interested in understanding the usefulness of earnings during periods of extreme macro uncertainty and forces that determine accounting information quality

Aggregate Financial Misreporting and the Predictability of U.S. Recessions

We rely on the theoretical prediction that financial misreporting peaks before economic busts to examine whether aggregate ex ante measures of the likelihood of financial misreporting improve the predictability of U.S. recessions. We consider six measures of misreporting and show that the Beneish M-Score significantly improves out-of-sample recession prediction at longer forecasting horizons. Specifically, relative to leading models based on yield spreads and market returns, M-Score increases the average probability of a recession across forecast horizons of six-, seven-, and eight-quarters-ahead by 56 percent, 79 percent, and 92 percent, respectively. These findings are robust to alternative definitions of interest rate spreads, and to controlling for the federal funds rate, investor sentiment, and aggregate earnings growth. We show that the performance of M-Score likely arises because firms with high M-Scores tend to experience negative future performance. Overall, this study provides novel evidence that accounting information can be useful to forecasters and regulators interested in assessing the likelihood of U.S. recessions a few quarters ahead

The Parkinson's progression markers initiative (PPMI) - establishing a PD biomarker cohort.

ObjectiveThe Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) is an observational, international study designed to establish biomarker-defined cohorts and identify clinical, imaging, genetic, and biospecimen Parkinson's disease (PD) progression markers to accelerate disease-modifying therapeutic trials.MethodsA total of 423 untreated PD, 196 Healthy Control (HC) and 64 SWEDD (scans without evidence of dopaminergic deficit) subjects were enrolled at 24 sites. To enroll PD subjects as early as possible following diagnosis, subjects were eligible with only asymmetric bradykinesia or tremor plus a dopamine transporter (DAT) binding deficit on SPECT imaging. Acquisition of data was standardized as detailed at www.ppmi-info.org.ResultsApproximately 9% of enrolled subjects had a single PD sign at baseline. DAT imaging excluded 16% of potential PD subjects with SWEDD. The total MDS-UPDRS for PD was 32.4 compared to 4.6 for HC and 28.2 for SWEDD. On average, PD subjects demonstrated 45% and 68% reduction in mean striatal and contralateral putamen Specific Binding Ratios (SBR), respectively. Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was acquired from >97% of all subjects. CSF (PD/HC/SWEDD pg/mL) α-synuclein (1845/2204/2141) was reduced in PD vs HC or SWEDD (P < 0.03). Similarly, t-tau (45/53) and p-tau (16/18) were reduced in PD versus HC (P < 0.01).InterpretationPPMI has detailed the biomarker signature for an early PD cohort defined by clinical features and imaging biomarkers. This strategy provides the framework to establish biomarker cohorts and to define longitudinal progression biomarkers to support future PD treatment trials

Canagliflozin and cardiovascular and renal events in type 2 diabetes

Background: Canagliflozin is a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor that reduces glycemia as well as blood pressure, body weight, and albuminuria in people with diabetes. We report the effects of treatment with canagliflozin on cardiovascular, renal, and safety outcomes. Methods: the CANVAS Program integrated data from two trials involving a total of 10,142 participants with type 2 diabetes and high cardiovascular risk. Participants in each trial were randomly assigned to receive canagliflozin or placebo and were followed for a mean of 188.2 weeks. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke. Results: the mean age of the participants was 63.3 years, 35.8% were women, the mean duration of diabetes was 13.5 years, and 65.6% had a history of cardiovascular disease. The rate of the primary outcome was lower with canagliflozin than with placebo (occurring in 26.9 vs. 31.5 participants per 1000 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.97; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P=0.02 for superiority). Although on the basis of the prespecified hypothesis testing sequence the renal outcomes are not viewed as statistically significant, the results showed a possible benefit of canagliflozin with respect to the progression of albuminuria (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.79) and the composite outcome of a sustained 40% reduction in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, the need for renal-replacement therapy, or death from renal causes (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.77). Adverse reactions were consistent with the previously reported risks associated with canagliflozin except for an increased risk of amputation (6.3 vs. 3.4 participants per 1000 patient-years; hazard ratio, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.75); amputations were primarily at the level of the toe or metatarsal. Conclusion: in two trials involving patients with type 2 diabetes and an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, patients treated with canagliflozin had a lower risk of cardiovascular events than those who received placebo but a greater risk of amputation, primarily at the level of the toe or metatarsal. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development; CANVAS and CANVAS-R ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01032629 and NCT01989754 , respectively)