THE ROLE OF PREDATORS IN THE ECOLOGY, EPIDEMIOLOGY, AND SURVEILLANCE OF PLAGUE IN THE UNITED STATES

Predators play important roles in the ecology, epidemiology, and surveillance of plague in the United States. Most predators are accidental hosts of plague and, with the possible exception of grasshopper mice (Onychomys spp.), are not important sources of infection for feeding fleas. However, predators undoubtedly do play an important role in the natural cycle of plague by transporting infected fleas between different populations of plague-susceptible rodents. Predators are known to be at least accidental hosts for 40 of the 50 flea species that have been found to be naturally infected with plague in the U.S. Carnivores, including domestic cats, also play an important epidemiological role and have been sources of infection for 24 human plague cases since 1970. Serosurveillance of rodent-consuming carnivores is currently the most cost-effective method of monitoring plague in the western U.S. During the 1990s, these surveys have allowed CDC and other public health agencies to both identify plague risks for humans living in endemic regions and document the spread of plague into areas where it had not been identified previously

Classic flea-borne transmission does not drive plague epizootics in prairie dogs

We lack a clear understanding of the enzootic maintenance of the bacterium (Yersinia pestis) that causes plague and the sporadic epizootics that occur in its natural rodent hosts. A key to elucidating these epidemiological dynamics is determining the dominant transmission routes of plague. Plague can be acquired from the bites of infectious fleas (which is generally considered to occur via a blocked flea vector), inhalation of infectious respiratory droplets, or contact with a short-term infectious reservoir. We present results from a plague modeling approach that includes transmission from all three sources of infection simultaneously and uses sensitivity analysis to determine their relative importance. Our model is completely parameterized by using data from the literature and our own field studies of plague in the black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus). Results of the model are qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with independent data from our field sites. Although infectious fleas might be an important source of infection and transmission via blocked fleas is a dominant paradigm in the literature, our model clearly predicts that this form of transmission cannot drive epizootics in prairie dogs. Rather, a short-term reservoir is required for epizootic dynamics. Several short-term reservoirs have the potential to affect the prairie dog system. Our model predictions of the residence time of the shortterm reservoir suggest that other small mammals, infectious prairie dog carcasses, fleas that transmit plague without blockage of the digestive tract, or some combination of these three are the most likely of the candidate infectious reservoirs. disease modeling ͉ disease reservoir ͉ Yersinia pestis ͉ Cynomys ludovicianu

Wild Felids as Hosts for Human Plague, Western United States

Plague seroprevalence was estimated in populations of pumas and bobcats in the western United States. High levels of exposure in plague-endemic regions indicate the need to consider the ecology and pathobiology of plague in nondomestic felid hosts to better understand the role of these species in disease persistence and transmission

Landscape and Residential Variables Associated with Plague-Endemic Villages in the West Nile Region of Uganda

Plague, caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis , is a severe, often fatal disease. This study focuses on the plagueendemic West Nile region of Uganda, where limited information is available regarding environmental and behavioral risk factors associated with plague infection. We conducted observational surveys of 10 randomly selected huts within historically classified case and control villages (four each) two times during the dry season of 2006 ( N = 78 case huts and N = 80 control huts), which immediately preceded a large plague outbreak. By coupling a previously published landscape-level statistical model of plague risk with this observational survey, we were able to identify potential residence-based risk factors for plague associated with huts within historic case or control villages (e.g., distance to neighboring homestead and presence of pigs near the home) and huts within areas previously predicted as elevated risk or low risk (e.g., corn and other annual crops grown near the home, water storage in the home, and processed commercial foods stored in the home). The identified variables are consistent with current ecologic theories on plague transmission dynamics. This preliminary study serves as a foundation for future case control studies in the area

Persistence of Yersinia pestis in Soil Under Natural Conditions

As part of a fatal human plague case investigation, we showed that the plague bacterium, Yersinia pestis, can survive for at least 24 days in contaminated soil under natural conditions. These results have implications for defining plague foci, persistence, transmission, and bioremediation after a natural or intentional exposure to Y. pestis

Plague: past, present and future

[Introduction] Recent experience with SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) [1] and avian flu shows that the public and political response to threats from new anthropozoonoses can be near-hysteria. This can readily make us forget more classical animal-borne diseases, such as plague (Box 1). Three recent international meetings on plague (Box 2) concluded that: (1) it should be re-emphasised that the plague bacillus (Yersinia pestis) still causes several thousand human cases per year [2,3] (Figure 1); (2) locally perceived risks far outstrip the objective risk based purely on the number of cases [2]; (3) climate change might increase the risk of plague outbreaks where plague is currently endemic and new plague areas might arise [2,4]; (4) remarkably little is known about the dynamics of plague in its natural reservoirs and hence about changing risks for humans [5]; and, therefore, (5) plague should be taken much more seriously by the international community than appears to be the case

Fine-scale Identification of the Most Likely Source of a Human Plague Infection

We describe an analytic approach to provide fine-scale discrimination among multiple infection source hypotheses. This approach uses mutation-rate data for rapidly evolving multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat loci in probabilistic models to identify the most likely source. We illustrate the utility of this approach using data from a North American human plague investigation

Laboratory Analysis of Tularemia in Wild-Trapped, Commercially Traded Prairie Dogs, Texas, 2002

Oropharyngeal tularemia was identified as the cause of a die-off in captured wild prairie dogs at a commercial exotic animal facility in Texas. From this point source, Francisella tularensis–infected prairie dogs were traced to animals distributed to the Czech Republic and to a Texas pet shop. F. tularensis culture isolates were recovered tissue specimens from 63 prairie dogs, including one each from the secondary distribution sites. Molecular and biochemical subtyping indicated that all isolates were F. tularensis subsp. holarctica (Type B). Microagglutination assays detected antibodies against F. tularensis, with titers as great as 1:4,096 in some live animals. All seropositive animals remained culture positive, suggesting that prairie dogs may act as chronic carriers of F. tularensis. These findings demonstrate the need for additional studies of tularemia in prairie dogs, given the seriousness of the resulting disease, the fact that prairie dogs are sold commercially as pets, and the risk for pet-to-human transmission

Plague and Climate: Scales Matter

Plague is enzootic in wildlife populations of small mammals in central and eastern Asia, Africa, South and North America, and has been recognized recently as a reemerging threat to humans. Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e., bacteria, vectors, and hosts) of the plague system and is a likely factor to explain some of plague's variability from small and regional to large scales. Here, we review effects of climate variables on plague hosts and vectors from individual or population scales to studies on the whole plague system at a large scale. Upscaled versions of small-scale processes are often invoked to explain plague variability in time and space at larger scales, presumably because similar scale-independent mechanisms underlie these relationships. This linearity assumption is discussed in the light of recent research that suggests some of its limitations