Conclusion : agency, context and emergent post-uprising regimes

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.PostprintPeer reviewe

Change and continuity after the Arab Uprising : the consequences of state formation in Arab North African states

This article provides a comparative macro-level overview of political development in Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt. It examines their evolution from the colonial period through several distinct phases, showing how differences in their origins were followed over time by a certain convergence towards a common post-populist form of authoritarianism, albeit still distinguished according to monarchic and republican legitimacy principles. On this basis, it assesses how past state formation trajectories made the republics more vulnerable to the Arab uprising but also what differences they make for the prospects of post-uprising democratisation. While in Morocco the monarch's legitimacy allows it to continue divide-and-rule politics, in Egypt the army's historic central role in politics has been restored, while in Tunisia the trade union movement has facilitated a greater democratic transition.PostprintPeer reviewe

The sectarianization of the Middle East : transnational identity wars and competitive interference

What explains the rapid diffusion and apparent hegemony of sectarian discourse and practices across the MENA region? This paper will survey the accumulation of factors behind the sectarian surge and on that basis will argue that it is chiefly the outcome of the state failures brought about by the Arab spring: first, state failures have greatly intensified power struggles within states and across the region in which sectarianism has been instrumentalized; secondly such failures have greatly intensified the pre-existing permeability of states, thereby greatly amplifying mechanisms of diffusion, from emulation to intervention.PostprintPeer reviewe

Syria-Iraq relations: state construction and deconstruction and the MENA state system

This paper examines Syria-Iraq relations in order to explore wider issues of regional politics. It presents an overview of the historical stages in relations between the two countries since their formation, with the aim of using their changing relations as indicators of changes in both regional states and in the regional states system. The paper argues that state formation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has followed a bell-shaped curve, first rising, then declining, and altering, in parallel, the character of the states system. Each stage in Syria-Iraq relations is emblematic of the state of the MENA states system at the time. Syria and Iraq are near ‘siblings’ with key shared experiences. Firstly, their malformed construction under imperialism left behind fragmented ‘artificial’ states with built-in irredentism and powerful trans-state identities. Secondly, both states’ formation advanced under Ba’thist authoritarian regimes via a combination of party-building, oil and war. Then, they also faced similar challenges from US hegemony in the region in the 1990s, albeit responding in quite different ways. Finally, beginning in 2003 in Iraq, with the US invasion, and in 2011 in Syria, with the outbreak of the Syrian Uprising, both states have suffered deconstruction under various combinations of internal revolt and external intervention. Syria and Iraq have again been reduced to weak states suffering more intense trans-state conflict, loss of territorial control and challenges to their borders. This, allied to the penetration of both by trans-state ideology, has placed Syria and Iraq at the epicentre of a widening sectarianism of the whole regional system. This paper seeks to understand the state formation trajectories of Syria and Iraq. It builds on the foundation laid by several classic studies of Syria-Iraq relations, such as Patrick Seale’s (1965) work on the struggle for Syria after early independence, Eberhard Kienle’s Ba’th vs Ba’th (1990), which focused on the Pan-Arab period and Malik Mufti’s Sovereign Creations (1996), which updated the narrative into the period of relative state consolidation. The paper carries the story forward to the current time. The paper is organised in the following sections: 1) It first adumbrates an historical sociology lens for understanding the topic; 2) historic Syria-Iraq relations are then detailed as indicators of the evolution of the states and state system; and 3) Syria-Iraq relations just prior to and during the Arab Uprisings are examined, as iconic of the current condition of the states system

The sectarian revolution in the Middle East

This paper seeks to explain the dramatic rise of sectarianism in the Middle East. It distinguishes types of sectarianism and their drivers; looks at the rapid diffusion of sectarianism across the region, and analyses its impact on the stability of fragile states, its implications for forms of governance and its effect on the regional power struggle and the stability of the regional states system.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Comparing Galvanic Corrosion Rates Predicted from Polarization Curves with Empirical Data from a Carbon Steel and Monel Couple for a Various Geometries

The objective of this investigation was to compare the galvanic corrosion rate of carbon steel C1018 and Monel K-500 alloy in a bolt and plate geometry to that derived using Tafel plots. This was achieved using carbon steels sheets of steel with a pair of with varying the number of Monel bolts and varying spacing. It was found that the carbon steel plates do not corrode uniformly. This can create issues when using Polarization curves to assume galvanic corrosion rate of a carbon steel and Monel system. The geometry of the bolts can further affect this corrosion rate and make the system more complicated

The Syrian crisis and international security

Postprin

Great power competition in Syria: from proxy war to sanctions war

This paper examines the latest phase in the Syrian conflict, roughly from 2015 to the current time, a period when agency has largely passed from Syrians to rival great powers which have become the ultimate shapers of developments, above all Russia and the US, but with China recently playing a greater role.  Russian and American foreign policy goals in Syria are outlined; next analyzed is how their intervention helped shape a semi-proxy war in Syria. Then the transition to a sanctions war over reconstruction is examined: the various phase of sanctions inflicted on Syria and their impact on it. Then the case of Syrian sanctions is located within the global battle between Washington’s “sanctions hegemony,” and rival great powers seeking a multipolar world, including a look at the impact of the Ukraine war on this contest and on the battle for Syria. Finally attempts  at push back by global and regional players against US sanctioning of Syria are examined. The paper ends with a conclusion summarizing how the global struggle has affected Syria and how outcomes in Syria will affect the latter

Great power competition in Syria : from proxy war to sanctions war

This paper examines the latest phase in the Syrian conflict, roughly from 2015 to the current time, a period when agency has largely passed from Syrians to rival great powers which have become the ultimate shapers of developments, above all Russia and the US, but with China recently playing a greater role. Russian and American foreign policy goals in Syria are outlined; next analyzed is how their intervention helped shape a semi-proxy war in Syria. Then the transition to a sanctions war over reconstruction is examined: the various phase of sanctions inflicted on Syria and their impact on it. Then the case of Syrian sanctions is located within the global battle between Washington’s “sanctions hegemony,” and rival great powers seeking a multipolar world, including a look at the impact of the Ukraine war on this contest and on the battle for Syria. Finally attempts at push back by global and regional players against US sanctioning of Syria are examined. The paper ends with a conclusion summarizing how the global struggle has affected Syria and how outcomes in Syria will affect the latter.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe