The Bayesian Origins of Growth Rates in Stochastic Environments

Stochastic multiplicative dynamics characterize many complex natural phenomena such as selection and mutation in evolving populations, and the generation and distribution of wealth within social systems. Population heterogeneity in stochastic growth rates has been shown to be the critical driver of diversity dynamics and of the emergence of wealth inequality over long time scales. However, we still lack a general statistical framework that systematically explains the origins of these heterogeneities from the adaptation of agents to their environment. In this paper, we derive population growth parameters resulting from the interaction between agents and their knowable environment, conditional on subjective signals each agent receives. We show that average growth rates converge, under specific conditions, to their maximal value as the mutual information between the agent's signal and the environment, and that sequential Bayesian learning is the optimal strategy for reaching this maximum. It follows that when all agents access the same environment using the same inference model, the learning process dynamically attenuates growth rate disparities, reversing the long-term effects of heterogeneity on inequality. Our approach lays the foundation for a unified general quantitative modeling of social and biological phenomena such as the dynamical effects of cooperation, and the effects of education on life history choices.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Information Synergy Maximizes the Growth Rate of Heterogeneous Groups

Collective action and group formation are fundamental behaviors among both organisms cooperating to maximize their fitness, and people forming socioeconomic organizations. Researchers have extensively explored social interaction structures via game theory and homophilic linkages, such as in kin selection and scalar stress, to understand emergent cooperation in complex systems. However, we still lack a general theory capable of predicting how agents benefit from heterogeneous preferences, joint information, or skill complementarities in statistical environments. Here, we derive a general statistical dynamics for the origin of cooperation based on the management of resources and pooled information. Specifically, we show how groups that optimally combine complementary agent knowledge about resources in statistical environments maximize their growth rate. We show that these advantages are quantified by the information synergy embedded in the conditional probability of environmental states given agents' signals, such that groups with greater diversity of signals maximize their collective information. It follows that, when there are constraints placed on group formation, agents must intelligently select with who they cooperate with to maximize the synergy available to their own signal. Our results show how the general properties of information underlie the optimal collective formation and dynamics of groups of heterogeneous agents across social and biological phenomena.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

Cognitive behavioural therapy for adults with dissociative seizures (CODES): a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Dissociative seizures are paroxysmal events resembling epilepsy or syncope with characteristic features that allow them to be distinguished from other medical conditions. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) plus standardised medical care with standardised medical care alone for the reduction of dissociative seizure frequency. METHODS: In this pragmatic, parallel-arm, multicentre randomised controlled trial, we initially recruited participants at 27 neurology or epilepsy services in England, Scotland, and Wales. Adults (≥18 years) who had dissociative seizures in the previous 8 weeks and no epileptic seizures in the previous 12 months were subsequently randomly assigned (1:1) from 17 liaison or neuropsychiatry services following psychiatric assessment, to receive standardised medical care or CBT plus standardised medical care, using a web-based system. Randomisation was stratified by neuropsychiatry or liaison psychiatry recruitment site. The trial manager, chief investigator, all treating clinicians, and patients were aware of treatment allocation, but outcome data collectors and trial statisticians were unaware of treatment allocation. Patients were followed up 6 months and 12 months after randomisation. The primary outcome was monthly dissociative seizure frequency (ie, frequency in the previous 4 weeks) assessed at 12 months. Secondary outcomes assessed at 12 months were: seizure severity (intensity) and bothersomeness; longest period of seizure freedom in the previous 6 months; complete seizure freedom in the previous 3 months; a greater than 50% reduction in seizure frequency relative to baseline; changes in dissociative seizures (rated by others); health-related quality of life; psychosocial functioning; psychiatric symptoms, psychological distress, and somatic symptom burden; and clinical impression of improvement and satisfaction. p values and statistical significance for outcomes were reported without correction for multiple comparisons as per our protocol. Primary and secondary outcomes were assessed in the intention-to-treat population with multiple imputation for missing observations. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial registry, ISRCTN05681227, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02325544. FINDINGS: Between Jan 16, 2015, and May 31, 2017, we randomly assigned 368 patients to receive CBT plus standardised medical care (n=186) or standardised medical care alone (n=182); of whom 313 had primary outcome data at 12 months (156 [84%] of 186 patients in the CBT plus standardised medical care group and 157 [86%] of 182 patients in the standardised medical care group). At 12 months, no significant difference in monthly dissociative seizure frequency was identified between the groups (median 4 seizures [IQR 0-20] in the CBT plus standardised medical care group vs 7 seizures [1-35] in the standardised medical care group; estimated incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·78 [95% CI 0·56-1·09]; p=0·144). Dissociative seizures were rated as less bothersome in the CBT plus standardised medical care group than the standardised medical care group (estimated mean difference -0·53 [95% CI -0·97 to -0·08]; p=0·020). The CBT plus standardised medical care group had a longer period of dissociative seizure freedom in the previous 6 months (estimated IRR 1·64 [95% CI 1·22 to 2·20]; p=0·001), reported better health-related quality of life on the EuroQoL-5 Dimensions-5 Level Health Today visual analogue scale (estimated mean difference 6·16 [95% CI 1·48 to 10·84]; p=0·010), less impairment in psychosocial functioning on the Work and Social Adjustment Scale (estimated mean difference -4·12 [95% CI -6·35 to -1·89]; p<0·001), less overall psychological distress than the standardised medical care group on the Clinical Outcomes in Routine Evaluation-10 scale (estimated mean difference -1·65 [95% CI -2·96 to -0·35]; p=0·013), and fewer somatic symptoms on the modified Patient Health Questionnaire-15 scale (estimated mean difference -1·67 [95% CI -2·90 to -0·44]; p=0·008). Clinical improvement at 12 months was greater in the CBT plus standardised medical care group than the standardised medical care alone group as reported by patients (estimated mean difference 0·66 [95% CI 0·26 to 1·04]; p=0·001) and by clinicians (estimated mean difference 0·47 [95% CI 0·21 to 0·73]; p<0·001), and the CBT plus standardised medical care group had greater satisfaction with treatment than did the standardised medical care group (estimated mean difference 0·90 [95% CI 0·48 to 1·31]; p<0·001). No significant differences in patient-reported seizure severity (estimated mean difference -0·11 [95% CI -0·50 to 0·29]; p=0·593) or seizure freedom in the last 3 months of the study (estimated odds ratio [OR] 1·77 [95% CI 0·93 to 3·37]; p=0·083) were identified between the groups. Furthermore, no significant differences were identified in the proportion of patients who had a more than 50% reduction in dissociative seizure frequency compared with baseline (OR 1·27 [95% CI 0·80 to 2·02]; p=0·313). Additionally, the 12-item Short Form survey-version 2 scores (estimated mean difference for the Physical Component Summary score 1·78 [95% CI -0·37 to 3·92]; p=0·105; estimated mean difference for the Mental Component Summary score 2·22 [95% CI -0·30 to 4·75]; p=0·084), the Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 scale score (estimated mean difference -1·09 [95% CI -2·27 to 0·09]; p=0·069), and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 scale depression score (estimated mean difference -1·10 [95% CI -2·41 to 0·21]; p=0·099) did not differ significantly between groups. Changes in dissociative seizures (rated by others) could not be assessed due to insufficient data. During the 12-month period, the number of adverse events was similar between the groups: 57 (31%) of 186 participants in the CBT plus standardised medical care group reported 97 adverse events and 53 (29%) of 182 participants in the standardised medical care group reported 79 adverse events. INTERPRETATION: CBT plus standardised medical care had no statistically significant advantage compared with standardised medical care alone for the reduction of monthly seizures. However, improvements were observed in a number of clinically relevant secondary outcomes following CBT plus standardised medical care when compared with standardised medical care alone. Thus, adults with dissociative seizures might benefit from the addition of dissociative seizure-specific CBT to specialist care from neurologists and psychiatrists. Future work is needed to identify patients who would benefit most from a dissociative seizure-specific CBT approach. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Health Technology Assessment programme

Power Law versus Exponential State Transition Dynamics: Application to Sleep-Wake Architecture

BACKGROUND: Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the "incorrect" model over a range of parameters. The "zone of mimicry" of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture

Magnetic Field Generation in Stars

Enormous progress has been made on observing stellar magnetism in stars from the main sequence through to compact objects. Recent data have thrown into sharper relief the vexed question of the origin of stellar magnetic fields, which remains one of the main unanswered questions in astrophysics. In this chapter we review recent work in this area of research. In particular, we look at the fossil field hypothesis which links magnetism in compact stars to magnetism in main sequence and pre-main sequence stars and we consider why its feasibility has now been questioned particularly in the context of highly magnetic white dwarfs. We also review the fossil versus dynamo debate in the context of neutron stars and the roles played by key physical processes such as buoyancy, helicity, and superfluid turbulence,in the generation and stability of neutron star fields. Independent information on the internal magnetic field of neutron stars will come from future gravitational wave detections. Thus we maybe at the dawn of a new era of exciting discoveries in compact star magnetism driven by the opening of a new, non-electromagnetic observational window. We also review recent advances in the theory and computation of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence as it applies to stellar magnetism and dynamo theory. These advances offer insight into the action of stellar dynamos as well as processes whichcontrol the diffusive magnetic flux transport in stars.Comment: 41 pages, 7 figures. Invited review chapter on on magnetic field generation in stars to appear in Space Science Reviews, Springe

Survival following lung volume reduction procedures: results from the UK Lung Volume Reduction (UKLVR) registry

Data availability statement: Data are available on reasonable request. All data relevant to the study are included in the article or uploaded as online supplemental information.Supplementary materials: Supplementary Data are available online at: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjresp-2023-002092 and are included on a file archived on this institutional repositoryIntroduction: Lung volume reduction surgery (LVRS) and endobronchial valve (EBV) placement can produce substantial benefits in appropriately selected people with emphysema. The UK Lung Volume Reduction (UKLVR) registry is a national multicentre observational study set up to support quality standards and assess outcomes from LVR procedures at specialist centres across the UK. Methods: Data were analysed for all patients undergoing an LVR procedure (LVRS/EBV) who were recruited into the study at participating centres between January 2017 and June 2022, including; disease severity and risk assessment, compliance with guidelines for selection, procedural complications and survival to February 2023. Results: Data on 541 patients from 14 participating centres were analysed. Baseline disease severity was similar in patients who had surgery n=244 (44.9%), or EBV placement n=219 (40.9%), for example, forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) 32.1 (12.1)% vs 31.2 (11.6)%. 89% of cases had discussion at a multidisciplinary meeting recorded. Median (IQR) length of stay postprocedure for LVRS and EBVs was 12 (13) vs 4 (4) days(p=0.01). Increasing age, male gender and lower FEV1%predicted were associated with mortality risk, but survival did not differ between the two procedures, with 50 (10.8%) deaths during follow-up in the LVRS group vs 45 (9.7%) following EBVs (adjusted HR 1.10 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.67) p=0.661) Conclusion: Based on data entered in the UKLVR registry, LVRS and EBV procedures for emphysema are being performed in people with similar disease severity and long-term survival is similar in both groups.Imperial College London, Asthma Lung UK

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during treatment of chronic infection

SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein is critical for virus infection via engagement of ACE21, and is a major 54 antibody target. Here we report chronic SARS-CoV-2 with reduced sensitivity to neutralising 55 antibodies in an immune suppressed individual treated with convalescent plasma, generating 56 whole genome ultradeep sequences over 23 time points spanning 101 days. Little change was 57 observed in the overall viral population structure following two courses of remdesivir over the 58 first 57 days. However, following convalescent plasma therapy we observed large, dynamic 59 virus population shifts, with the emergence of a dominant viral strain bearing D796H in S2 and 60 H69/V70 in the S1 N-terminal domain NTD of the Spike protein. As passively transferred 61 serum antibodies diminished, viruses with the escape genotype diminished in frequency, before 62 returning during a final, unsuccessful course of convalescent plasma. In vitro, the Spike escape 63 double mutant bearing H69/V70 and D796H conferred modestly decreased sensitivity to 64 convalescent plasma, whilst maintaining infectivity similar to wild type. D796H appeared to be 65 the main contributor to decreased susceptibility but incurred an infectivity defect. The 66 H69/V70 single mutant had two-fold higher infectivity compared to wild type, possibly 67 compensating for the reduced infectivity of D796H. These data reveal strong selection on SARS68 CoV-2 during convalescent plasma therapy associated with emergence of viral variants with 69 evidence of reduced susceptibility to neutralising antibodies.COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute