Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change

A number of influential assessments of the economic cost of climate change rely on just a small number of coupled climate–economy models. A central feature of these assessments is their accounting of the economic cost of epistemic uncertainty—that part of our uncertainty stemming from our inability to precisely estimate key model parameters, such as the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. However, these models fail to account for the cost of aleatory uncertainty—the irreducible uncertainty that remains even when the true parameter values are known. We show how to account for this second source of uncertainty in a physically well-founded and tractable way, and we demonstrate that even modest variability implies trillions of dollars of previously unaccounted for economic damages

Estrogens Can Disrupt Amphibian Mating Behavior

The main component of classical contraceptives, 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), has high estrogenic activity even at environmentally relevant concentrations. Although estrogenic endocrine disrupting compounds are assumed to contribute to the worldwide decline of amphibian populations by adverse effects on sexual differentiation, evidence for EE2 affecting amphibian mating behaviour is lacking. In this study, we demonstrate that EE2 exposure at five different concentrations (0.296 ng/L, 2.96 ng/L, 29.64 ng/L, 2.96 µg/L and 296.4 µg/L) can disrupt the mating behavior of adult male Xenopus laevis. EE2 exposure at all concentrations lowered male sexual arousal, indicated by decreased proportions of advertisement calls and increased proportions of the call type rasping, which characterizes a sexually unaroused state of a male. Additionally, EE2 at all tested concentrations affected temporal and spectral parameters of the advertisement calls, respectively. The classical and highly sensitive biomarker vitellogenin, on the other hand, was only induced at concentrations equal or higher than 2.96 µg/L. If kept under control conditions after a 96 h EE2 exposure (2.96 µg/L), alterations of male advertisement calls vanish gradually within 6 weeks and result in a lower sexual attractiveness of EE2 exposed males toward females as demonstrated by female choice experiments. These findings indicate that exposure to environmentally relevant EE2 concentrations can directly disrupt male mate calling behavior of X. laevis and can indirectly affect the mating behavior of females. The results suggest the possibility that EE2 exposure could reduce the reproductive success of EE2 exposed animals and these effects might contribute to the global problem of amphibian decline

Efficacy of aerobic exercise and a prudent diet for improving selected lipids and lipoproteins in adults: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background Studies addressing the effects of aerobic exercise and a prudent diet on lipid and lipoprotein concentrations in adults have reached conflicting conclusions. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of aerobic exercise combined with a prudent diet on lipid and lipoprotein concentrations in adults. Methods Studies were located by searching nine electronic databases, cross-referencing, and expert review. Two independent reviewers selected studies that met the following criteria: (1) randomized controlled trials, (2) aerobic exercise combined with diet recommendations (saturated/trans fat intake less than 10% of total calories and cholesterol less than 300 mg/day and/or fiber intake ≥25 g/day in women and ≥35 grams per day in men), (3) intervention ≥4 weeks, (4) humans ≥18 years of age, (5) published studies, including dissertations and Master\u27s theses, (6) studies published in any language, (7) studies published between January 1, 1955 and May 1, 2009, (8) assessment of one or more of the following lipid and lipoprotein concentrations: total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), ratio of TC to HDL-C, non-HDL-C, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglycerides (TG). Two reviewers independently extracted all data. Random-effects models that account for heterogeneity and 95% confidence intervals were used to pool findings. Results Of the 1,401 citations reviewed, six studies representing 16 groups (8 intervention, 8 control) and up to 559 men and women (282 intervention, 277 control) met the criteria for analysis. Statistically significant intervention minus control reductions were found for TC (-15.5 mg/dl, 95% CI, -20.3 to -10.7), TC:HDL-C (-0.4 mg/dl, 95% CI, -0.7 to -0.2), LDL-C (-9.2 mg/dl, 95% CI, -12.7 to -5.8) and TG (-10.6 mg/dl, 95% CI, -17.2 to -4.0) but not HDL-C (-0.5 mg/dl, 95% CI, -4.0 to 3.1). Changes were equivalent to reductions of 7.5%, 6.6%, 7.2% and 18.2% respectively, for TC, TC:HDL-C, LDL-C and TG. Because of missing variance statistics, non-HDL-C was excluded. Conclusions Aerobic exercise combined with a prudent diet is highly efficacious for improving TC, TC:HDL-C, LDL-C and TG, but not HDL-C concentrations, in adults. However, additional studies are needed, including effectiveness studies using intention-to-treat analysis

Poverty, dirt, infections and non-atopic wheezing in children from a Brazilian urban center

BACKGROUND: The causation of asthma is poorly understood. Risk factors for atopic and non-atopic asthma may be different. This study aimed to analyze the associations between markers of poverty, dirt and infections and wheezing in atopic and non-atopic children. METHODS: 1445 children were recruited from a population-based cohort in Salvador, Brazil. Wheezing was assessed using the ISAAC questionnaire and atopy defined as allergen-specific IgE ≥ 0.70 kU/L. Relevant social factors, environmental exposures and serological markers for childhood infections were investigated as risk factors using multivariate multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Common risk factors for wheezing in atopic and non-atopic children, respectively, were parental asthma and respiratory infection in early childhood. No other factor was associated with wheezing in atopic children. Factors associated with wheezing in non-atopics were low maternal educational level (OR 1.49, 95% CI 0.98-2.38), low frequency of room cleaning (OR 2.49, 95% CI 1.27-4.90), presence of rodents in the house (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.06-2.09), and day care attendance (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.01-2.29). CONCLUSIONS: Non-atopic wheezing was associated with risk factors indicative of poverty, dirt and infections. Further research is required to more precisely define the mediating exposures and the mechanisms by which they may cause non-atopic wheeze

How contemporary bioclimatic and human controls change global fire regimes

Anthropogenically driven declines in tropical savannah burnt area have recently received attention due to their effect on trends in global burnt area. Large-scale trends in ecosystems where vegetation has adapted to infrequent fire, especially in cooler and wetter forested areas, are less well understood. Here, small changes in fire regimes can have a substantial impact on local biogeochemistry. To investigate trends in fire across a wide range of ecosystems, we used Bayesian inference to quantify four primary controls on burnt area: fuel continuity, fuel moisture, ignitions and anthropogenic suppression. We found that fuel continuity and moisture are the dominant limiting factors of burnt area globally. Suppression is most important in cropland areas, whereas savannahs and boreal forests are most sensitive to ignitions. We quantify fire regime shifts in areas with more than one, and often counteracting, trends in these controls. Forests are of particular concern, where we show average shifts in controls of 2.3–2.6% of their potential maximum per year, mainly driven by trends in fuel continuity and moisture. This study gives added importance to understanding long-term future changes in the controls on fire and the effect of fire trends on ecosystem function

Proteomic analysis of the Plasmodium male gamete reveals the key role for glycolysis in flagellar motility.

BACKGROUND: Gametogenesis and fertilization play crucial roles in malaria transmission. While male gametes are thought to be amongst the simplest eukaryotic cells and are proven targets of transmission blocking immunity, little is known about their molecular organization. For example, the pathway of energy metabolism that power motility, a feature that facilitates gamete encounter and fertilization, is unknown. METHODS: Plasmodium berghei microgametes were purified and analysed by whole-cell proteomic analysis for the first time. Data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD001163. RESULTS: 615 proteins were recovered, they included all male gamete proteins described thus far. Amongst them were the 11 enzymes of the glycolytic pathway. The hexose transporter was localized to the gamete plasma membrane and it was shown that microgamete motility can be suppressed effectively by inhibitors of this transporter and of the glycolytic pathway. CONCLUSIONS: This study describes the first whole-cell proteomic analysis of the malaria male gamete. It identifies glycolysis as the likely exclusive source of energy for flagellar beat, and provides new insights in original features of Plasmodium flagellar organization

Topical Oestrogen Keratinises The Human Foreskin and May Help Prevent HIV Infection

With the growing incidence of HIV, there is a desperate need to develop simple, cheap and effective new ways of preventing HIV infection. Male circumcision reduces the risk of infection by about 60%, probably because of the removal of the Langerhans cells which are abundant in the inner foreskin and are the primary route by which HIV enters the penis. Langerhans cells form a vital part of the body's natural defence against HIV and only cause infection when they are exposed to high levels of HIV virions. Rather than removing this natural defence mechanism by circumcision, it may be better to enhance it by thickening the layer of keratin overlying the Langerhans cells, thereby reducing the viral load to which they are exposed. We have investigated the ability of topically administered oestrogen to induce keratinization of the epithelium of the inner foreskin. Histochemically, the whole of the foreskin is richly supplied with oestrogen receptors. The epithelium of the inner foreskin, like the vagina, responds within 24 hours to the topical administration of oestriol by keratinization, and the response persists for at least 5 days after the cessation of the treatment. Oestriol, a cheap, readily available natural oestrogen metabolite, rapidly keratinizes the inner foreskin, the site of HIV entry into the penis. This thickening of the overlying protective layer of keratin should reduce the exposure of the underlying Langerhans cells to HIV virions. This simple treatment could become an adjunct or alternative to surgical circumcision for reducing the incidence of HIV infection in men

ConDeTri - A Content Dependent Read Trimmer for Illumina Data

During the last few years, DNA and RNA sequencing have started to play an increasingly important role in biological and medical applications, especially due to the greater amount of sequencing data yielded from the new sequencing machines and the enormous decrease in sequencing costs. Particularly, Illumina/Solexa sequencing has had an increasing impact on gathering data from model and non-model organisms. However, accurate and easy to use tools for quality filtering have not yet been established. We present ConDeTri, a method for content dependent read trimming for next generation sequencing data using quality scores of each individual base. The main focus of the method is to remove sequencing errors from reads so that sequencing reads can be standardized. Another aspect of the method is to incorporate read trimming in next-generation sequencing data processing and analysis pipelines. It can process single-end and paired-end sequence data of arbitrary length and it is independent from sequencing coverage and user interaction. ConDeTri is able to trim and remove reads with low quality scores to save computational time and memory usage during de novo assemblies. Low coverage or large genome sequencing projects will especially gain from trimming reads. The method can easily be incorporated into preprocessing and analysis pipelines for Illumina data

Decomposition techniques with mixed integer programming and heuristics for home healthcare planning

We tackle home healthcare planning scenarios in the UK using decomposition methods that incorporate mixed integer programming solvers and heuristics. Home healthcare planning is a difficult problem that integrates aspects from scheduling and routing. Solving real-world size instances of these problems still presents a significant challenge to modern exact optimization solvers. Nevertheless, we propose decomposition techniques to harness the power of such solvers while still offering a practical approach to produce high-quality solutions to real-world problem instances. We first decompose the problem into several smaller sub-problems. Next, mixed integer programming and/or heuristics are used to tackle the sub-problems. Finally, the sub-problem solutions are combined into a single valid solution for the whole problem. The different decomposition methods differ in the way in which subproblems are generated and the way in which conflicting assignments are tackled (i.e. avoided or repaired). We present the results obtained by the proposed decomposition methods and compare them to solutions obtained with other methods. In addition, we conduct a study that reveals how the different steps in the proposed method contribute to those results. The main contribution of this paper is a better understanding of effective ways to combine mixed integer programming within effective decomposition methods to solve real-world instances of home healthcare planning problems in practical computation time