Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments

The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics

Prevention of childhood poisoning in the home: overview of systematic reviews and a systematic review of primary studies

Unintentional poisoning is a significant child public health problem. This systematic overview of reviews, supplemented with a systematic review of recently published primary studies synthesizes evidence on non-legislative interventions to reduce childhood poisonings in the home with particular reference to interventions that could be implemented by Children's Centres in England or community health or social care services in other high income countries. Thirteen systematic reviews, two meta-analyses and 47 primary studies were identified. The interventions most commonly comprised education, provision of cupboard/drawer locks, and poison control centre (PCC) number stickers. Meta-analyses and primary studies provided evidence that interventions improved poison prevention practices. Twenty eight per cent of studies reporting safe medicine storage (OR from meta-analysis 1.57, 95% CI 1.22–2.02), 23% reporting safe storage of other products (OR from meta-analysis 1.63, 95% CI 1.22–2.17) and 46% reporting availability of PCC numbers (OR from meta-analysis 3.67, 95% CI 1.84–7.33) demonstrated significant effects favouring the intervention group. There was a lack of evidence that interventions reduced poisoning rates. Parents should be provided with poison prevention education, cupboard/drawer locks and emergency contact numbers to use in the event of a poisoning. Further research is required to determine whether improving poison prevention practices reduces poisoning rates

Mining metrics for buried treasure

The same but different: That might describe two metrics. On the surface CLASSI may show two metrics are locally equivalent, but buried beneath one may be a wealth of further structure. This was beautifully described in a paper by M.A.H. MacCallum in 1998. Here I will illustrate the effect with two flat metrics -- one describing ordinary Minkowski spacetime and the other describing a three-parameter family of Gal'tsov-Letelier-Tod spacetimes. I will dig out the beautiful hidden classical singularity structure of the latter (a structure first noticed by Tod in 1994) and then show how quantum considerations can illuminate the riches. I will then discuss how quantum structure can help us understand classical singularities and metric parameters in a variety of exact solutions mined from the Exact Solutions book.Comment: 16 pages, no figures, minor grammatical changes, submitted to Proceedings of the Malcolm@60 Conference (London, July 2004

The Cluster-EAGLE project: global properties of simulated clusters with resolved galaxies

We introduce the Cluster-EAGLE (C-EAGLE) simulation project, a set of cosmological hydrodynamical zoom simulations of the formation of 30 galaxy clusters in the mass range of 1014 < M200/M⊙ < 1015.4 that incorporates the Hydrangea sample of Bahé et al. (2017). The simulations adopt the state-of-the-art EAGLE galaxy formation model, with a gas particle mass of 1.8 × 106 M⊙ and physical softening length of 0.7 kpc. In this paper, we introduce the sample and present the low-redshift global properties of the clusters. We calculate the X-ray properties in a manner consistent with observational techniques, demonstrating the bias and scatter introduced by using estimated masses. We find the total stellar content and black hole masses of the clusters to be in good agreement with the observed relations. However, the clusters are too gas rich, suggesting that the active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback model is not efficient enough at expelling gas from the high-redshift progenitors of the clusters. The X-ray properties, such as the spectroscopic temperature and the soft-band luminosity, and the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich properties are in reasonable agreement with the observed relations. However, the clusters have too high central temperatures and larger-than-observed entropy cores, which is likely driven by the AGN feedback after the cluster core has formed. The total metal content and its distribution throughout the intracluster medium are a good match to the observations

The detection of Gravitational Waves

This chapter is concerned with the question: how do gravitational waves (GWs) interact with their detectors? It is intended to be a theory review of the fundamental concepts involved in interferometric and acoustic (Weber bar) GW antennas. In particular, the type of signal the GW deposits in the detector in each case will be assessed, as well as its intensity and deconvolution. Brief reference will also be made to detector sensitivity characterisation, including very summary data on current state of the art GW detectors.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figures, LaTeX2e, Springer style files --included. For Proceedings of the ERE-2001 Conference (Madrid, September 2001

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Determination of the Deep Inelastic Contribution to the Generalised Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn Integral for the Proton and Neutron

The virtual photon absorption cross section differences [sigma_1/2-sigma_3/2] for the proton and neutron have been determined from measurements of polarised cross section asymmetries in deep inelastic scattering of 27.5 GeV longitudinally polarised positrons from polarised 1H and 3He internal gas targets. The data were collected in the region above the nucleon resonances in the kinematic range nu < 23.5 GeV and 0.8 GeV**2 < Q**2 < 12 GeV**2. For the proton the contribution to the generalised Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn integral was found to be substantial and must be included for an accurate determination of the full integral. Furthermore the data are consistent with a QCD next-to-leading order fit based on previous deep inelastic scattering data. Therefore higher twist effects do not appear significant.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, revte

Observation of a Coherence Length Effect in Exclusive Rho^0 Electroproduction

Exclusive incoherent electroproduction of the rho^0(770) meson from 1H, 2H, 3He, and 14N targets has been studied by the HERMES experiment at squared four-momentum transfer Q**2>0.4 GeV**2 and positron energy loss nu from 9 to 20 GeV. The ratio of the 14N to 1H cross sections per nucleon, known as the nuclear transparency, was found to decrease with increasing coherence length of quark-antiquark fluctuations of the virtual photon. The data provide clear evidence of the interaction of the quark- antiquark fluctuations with the nuclear medium.Comment: RevTeX, 5 pages, 3 figure

Measurement of the B0-anti-B0-Oscillation Frequency with Inclusive Dilepton Events

The $B^0$-$\bar B^0$ oscillation frequency has been measured with a sample of 23 million \B\bar B pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II asymmetric B Factory at SLAC. In this sample, we select events in which both B mesons decay semileptonically and use the charge of the leptons to identify the flavor of each B meson. A simultaneous fit to the decay time difference distributions for opposite- and same-sign dilepton events gives $\Delta m_d = 0.493 \pm 0.012{(stat)}\pm 0.009{(syst)}$ ps$^{-1}$.Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Physical Review Letter