On the evaluation of global sea-salt aerosol models at coastal/orographic sites

Sea-salt aerosol global models are typically evaluated against concentration observations at coastal stations that are unaffected by local surf conditions and thus considered representative of open ocean conditions. Despite recent improvements in sea-salt source functions, studies still show significant model errors in specific regions. Using a multiscale model, we investigated the effect of high model resolution (0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees vs. 1 degrees x 1.4 degrees) upon sea-salt patterns in four stations from the University of Miami Network: Baring Head, Chatam Island, and Invercargill in New Zealand, and Marion Island in the sub-antarctic Indian Ocean. Normalized biases improved from +63.7% to +3.3% and correlation increased from 0.52 to 0.84. The representation of sea/land interfaces, mesoscale circulations, and precipitation with the higher resolution model played a major role in the simulation of annual concentration trends. Our results recommend caution when comparing or constraining global models using surface concentration observations from coastal stations. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.Postprint (published version

Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models

To help meet increasing demands for high-resolution climate change projections in the Philippines, this study provides the results of multiple dynamically downscaled climate model simulations for projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the country by the mid-21st century (2036–2065) relative to the baseline period (1971–2000), under the RCP8.5 scenario. The model-simulated seasonal means of temperature, rainfall, and low-level wind patterns were first compared with observations during the baseline period. Comparisons made between the model-derived and APHRODITE observation-based gridded temperature and rainfall data indicate that the dynamically downscaled simulations provide an overall improvement from their driving global climate models in capturing the spatial patterns of rainfall over the country, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the country's mean temperature. Future climate projections show that the country's climate is expected to become warmer by the mid-21st century, with a multi-model ensemble mean increase of 1.2 to 1.9°C, relative to the baseline period, projected for many parts of the country and across most seasons. Slightly higher increases are projected during the country's hottest season, March–April–May. However, there are large differences in the models' projected rainfall changes by the mid-21st century across seasons and regions. For most parts of the country, the multi-model ensemble includes simulations that show increases and simulations that show decreases in rainfall. Nevertheless, there is a tendency of model projections towards wetter conditions over northern and central sections of the country (particularly in the December–January–February season) and drier conditions in the southern region of the country in almost all seasons. The results demonstrate the need for communities in the Philippines to adapt to a future warmer climate and prepare for a range of possible future changes in rainfall and temperature

Performance of downscaled regional climate simulations using a variable-resolution regional climate model : Tasmania as a test case

In this study we develop methods for dynamically downscaling output from six general circulation models (GCMs) for two emissions scenarios using a variable-resolution atmospheric climate model. The use of multiple GCMs and emissions scenarios gives an estimate of model range in projected changes to the mean climate across the region. By modeling the atmosphere at a very fine scale, the simulations capture processes that are important to regional weather and climate at length scales that are subgrid scale for the host GCM. We find that with a multistaged process of increased resolution and the application of bias adjustment methods, the ability of the simulation to reproduce observed conditions improves, with greater than 95% of the spatial variance explained for temperature and about 90% for rainfall. Furthermore, downscaling leads to a significant improvement for the temporal distribution of variables commonly used in applied analyses, reproducing seasonal variability in line with observations. This seasonal signal is not evident in the GCMs. This multistaged approach allows progressive improvement in the skill of the simulations in order to resolve key processes over the region with quantifiable improvements in the correlations with observations

Projections of rapidly rising surface temperatures over Africa under low mitigation.

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional dowscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.SP2016http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/08500

Orographic Effects and Evaporative Cooling along a Subtropical Cold Front: The Case of the Spectacular Saharan Dust Outbreak of March 2004

On 2 March 2004 a marked upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front penetrated into the Sahara. High winds along and behind this frontal system led to an extraordinary, large-scale, and long-lived dust out reak, accompanied by significant precipitation over parts of Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. This paper uses sensitivity simulations with the limited-area model developed by the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) together with analysis data and surface observations to test several hypotheses on the dynamics of this case proposedin previous work. It is demonstrated that air over central Algeria is cooled by evaporation of frontal precipitation, substantially enhancing winds at the leading edge of the cold front. This process is supported by very drylow-level air in the lee of the Atlas Mountains associated with a foehn situation. Flattening the mountain chain in a sensitivity experiment, however, has complex effects on the wind. While reduced evaporative cooling weakens the front, the elimination of the orographic blocking accelerates its penetration into the Sahara. The simulations also indicate high winds associated with a hydraulic jump at the southern slopes of the Tell Atlas. Feedingthe simulated winds into a dust emission parameterization reveals reduced emissions on the order of 20%-30% for suppressed latent heating and even more when effects of the increased precipitation on soil moisture are considered. In the experiment with the Atlas removed, effects of the overall increase in high winds are compensated by an increase in precipitation. The results suggest that a realistic representation of frontal precipitation is an important requisite to accurately model dust emission in such situations

High-resolution projections of surface water availability for Tasmania, Australia

Changes to streamflows caused by climate change may have major impacts on the management of water for hydro-electricity generation and agriculture in Tasmania, Australia. We describe changes to Tasmanian surface water availability from 1961–1990 to 2070–2099 using high-resolution simulations. Six fine-scale (∼10 km<sup>2</sup>) simulations of daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are generated with the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), a variable-resolution regional climate model (RCM). These variables are bias-corrected with quantile mapping and used as direct inputs to the hydrological models AWBM, IHACRES, Sacramento, SIMHYD and SMAR-G to project streamflows. <br><br> The performance of the hydrological models is assessed against 86 streamflow gauges across Tasmania. The SIMHYD model is the least biased (median bias = −3%) while IHACRES has the largest bias (median bias = −22%). We find the hydrological models that best simulate observed streamflows produce similar streamflow projections. <br><br> There is much greater variation in projections between RCM simulations than between hydrological models. Marked decreases of up to 30% are projected for annual runoff in central Tasmania, while runoff is generally projected to increase in the east. Daily streamflow variability is projected to increase for most of Tasmania, consistent with increases in rainfall intensity. Inter-annual variability of streamflows is projected to increase across most of Tasmania. <br><br> This is the first major Australian study to use high-resolution bias-corrected rainfall and potential evapotranspiration projections as direct inputs to hydrological models. Our study shows that these simulations are capable of producing realistic streamflows, allowing for increased confidence in assessing future changes to surface water variability

Global exposure of population and land‐use to meteorological droughts under different warming levels and SSPs: a CORDEX‐based study

Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population, forests, croplands and pastures exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981–2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs: 1.5°C to 4°C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the SSP3 at GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (versus 1981–2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 at GWL4, approximately 2 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests and croplands (respectively, 6% and 11%) and 1.5 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI this extent will rise to 17 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of forests (49%), 6 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of pastures (78%) and 12 × 10$^{6}$ km$^{2}$ of croplands (67%), being mid-latitudes the most affected. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change

A mesoscale model intercomparison: A case of explosive development of a tropical cyclone (COMPARE III)

The performance of current mesoscale numerical models is evaluated in a case of model intercomparison project (COMPARE III). Explosive development of Typhoon Flo (9019) occurred in the case in September 1990 during the cooperative three field experiments, ESCAP/WMO-led SPECTRUM, US-led TCM-90, and former USSR-led TYPHOON-90 in the western North Pacific. Sensitivity to initial fields as well as impact of enhanced horizontal resolution are examined in the model intercomparison. Both track and intensity predictions are very sensitive to the choice of initial fields prepared with different data assimilation systems and the use of a particular synthetic tropical cyclone vortex. Horizontal resolution enhanced from 50km through 20km down to a 10km grid has a large impact on intensity prediction. This is presumably due to a better presentation of inner structure with higher resolution. There is little impact on track prediction in this target period when the typhoon was in its before-recurvature stage. While most models show large biases in underestimating central pressure deepening, some of the participating models with a particular initial field succeed in reproducing qualitatively the time evolution of central pressure, including slow deepening in the first half and rapid deepening in the second half of the simulation period of 72 hours. However, differences leading to different intensity predictions among models have yet to be identified. Intercomparison of the simulation results shows that wind field has a close relationship with precipitation distribution. This suggests that better prediction of precipitation distribution is crucial for better prediction of wind field, and vice versa. Through the COMPARE III experiments, it has become clear that precise simulation of tropical cyclone structure, especially in the inner-core region, is very important for accurate intensity prediction. Consideration, therefore, should be given to this point, when improvements in resolution, initialization, and physics of numerical models for tropical cyclone intensity prediction are reviewed