Causal criteria and counterfactuals; nothing more (or less) than scientific common sense

Two persistent myths in epidemiology are that we can use a list of "causal criteria" to provide an algorithmic approach to inferring causation and that a modern "counterfactual model" can assist in the same endeavor. We argue that these are neither criteria nor a model, but that lists of causal considerations and formalizations of the counterfactual definition of causation are nevertheless useful tools for promoting scientific thinking. They set us on the path to the common sense of scientific inquiry, including testing hypotheses (really putting them to a test, not just calculating simplistic statistics), responding to the Duhem-Quine problem, and avoiding many common errors. Austin Bradford Hill's famous considerations are thus both over-interpreted by those who would use them as criteria and under-appreciated by those who dismiss them as flawed. Similarly, formalizations of counterfactuals are under-appreciated as lessons in basic scientific thinking. The need for lessons in scientific common sense is great in epidemiology, which is taught largely as an engineering discipline and practiced largely as technical tasks, making attention to core principles of scientific inquiry woefully rare

The missed lessons of Sir Austin Bradford Hill

Austin Bradford Hill's landmark 1965 paper contains several important lessons for the current conduct of epidemiology. Unfortunately, it is almost exclusively cited as the source of the "Bradford-Hill criteria" for inferring causation when association is observed, despite Hill's explicit statement that cause-effect decisions cannot be based on a set of rules. Overlooked are Hill's important lessons about how to make decisions based on epidemiologic evidence. He advised epidemiologists to avoid over-emphasizing statistical significance testing, given the observation that systematic error is often greater than random error. His compelling and intuitive examples point out the need to consider costs and benefits when making decisions about health-promoting interventions. These lessons, which offer ways to dramatically increase the contribution of health science to decision making, are as needed today as they were when Hill presented them

Lead editorial: The need for greater perspective and innovation in epidemiology

This editorial introduces the new online, open-access, peer-reviewed journal, Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations. Epidemiology (which we define broadly, to include clinical research and various approaches to studying the health of populations) is a critically important field in informing decisions about the health of individuals and populations. But the desire for new information means that the health science literature is overwhelmingly devoted to reporting new findings, leaving little opportunity to improve the quality of the science. By creating a journal dedicated to all topics of and about epidemiology, except standard research reports, we hope to encourage authors to write more on the neglected aspects of the field. The journal will publish articles that analyze policy implications of health research, present new research methods and better communicate existing methods, reassess previous results and dogma, and provide other innovations in and perspectives on the field. Online publishing will permit articles of whatever length is required for the work, speed the time to publication and allow free access to the full content

The use of routine outcome measures in two child and adolescent mental health services: a completed audit cycle

Background: Routine outcome measurement (ROM) is important for assessing the clinical effectiveness of health services and for monitoring patient outcomes. Within Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS) in the UK the adoption of ROM in CAMHS has been supported by both national and local initiatives (such as government strategies, local commissioning policy, and research). Methods: With the aim of assessing how these policies and initiatives may have influenced the uptake of ROM within two different CAMHS we report the findings of two case-note audits: a baseline audit conducted in January 2011 and a re-audit conducted two years later in December 2012-February 2013. Results: The findings show an increase in both the single and repeated use of outcome measures from the time of the original audit, with repeated use (baseline and follow-up) of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA) scale increasing from 10% to 50% of cases. Re-audited case-notes contained more combined use of different outcome measures, with greater consensus on which measures to use. Outcome measures that were applicable across a wide range of clinical conditions were more likely to be used than symptom-specific measures, and measures that were completed by the clinician were found more often than measures completed by the service user. Conclusions: The findings show a substantial improvement in the use of outcome measures within CAMHS. These increases in use were found across different service organisations which were subject to different types of local service priorities and drivers

Complete genome sequences of two Helicobacter pylori strains from a Canadian Arctic Aboriginal community

We report here the complete genome sequences of two Amerind Helicobacter pylori strains from Aklavik, Northwest Territories, Canada. One strain contains extra iron-cofactored urease genes and ~140 rearrangements in its chromosome relative to other described strains (typically differing from one another by <10 rearrangements), suggesting that it represents a novel lineage of H. pylori

Oklahoma's dirty dozen: Unwanted invasive plants

The Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service periodically issues revisions to its publications. The most current edition is made available. For access to an earlier edition, if available for this title, please contact the Oklahoma State University Library Archives by email at [email protected] or by phone at 405-744-6311

Cervical Screening and General Physical Examination Behaviors of Women Exposed In Utero to Diethylstilbestrol

Objective. To estimate whether women exposed in utero to diethylstilbestrol (DES) report receiving more cervical and general physical examinations compared to unexposed women. Materials and Methods. 1994 Diethylstilbestrol Adenosis cohort data are used to assess the degree of recommended compliance of cervical screenings found in 3,140 DES-exposed and 826 unexposed women. Participants were enrolled at 4 sites: Houston, Boston, Rochester, and Los Angeles. Logistic regression modeling was used to analyze mailed questionnaire data, which included reported frequency over the preceding 5 years (1990-1994) of Papanicolaou smears and general physical examinations. Results. Diethylstilbestrol-exposed women exceeded the recommended frequency of Papanicolaou smear screenings [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.15, 95% CI (confidence interval) = 1.60-2.88] compared to the unexposed. This association held among those without a history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (aOR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.35-2.62). Diethylstilbestrol-exposed women exceeded annual recommendations for physical examinations (aOR = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.16-4.43) among women without a history of chronic disease when compared to unexposed women. Conclusions. Most DES-exposed women are receiving cervical cancer screening at least at recommended intervals, but one third of the women are not receiving annual Papanicolaou smear examinations

Diversity, host specialization, and geographic structure of filarial nematodes infecting Malagasy bats

We investigated filarial infection in Malagasy bats to gain insights into the diversity of these parasites and explore the factors shaping their distribution. Samples were obtained from 947 individual bats collected from 52 sites on Madagascar and representing 31 of the 44 species currently recognized on the island. Samples were screened for the presence of micro-and macro-parasites through both molecular and morphological approaches. Phylogenetic analyses showed that filarial diversity in Malagasy bats formed three main groups, the most common represented by Litomosa spp. infecting Miniopterus spp. (Miniopteridae); a second group infecting Pipistrellus cf. hesperidus (Vespertilionidae) embedded within the Litomosoides cluster, which is recognized herein for the first time from Madagascar; and a third group composed of lineages with no clear genetic relationship to both previously described filarial nematodes and found in M. griveaudi, Myotis goudoti, Neoromicia matroka (Vespertilionidae), Otomops madagascariensis (Molossidae), and Paratriaenops furculus (Hipposideridae). We further analyzed the infection rates and distribution pattern of Litomosa spp., which was the most diverse and prevalent filarial taxon in our sample. Filarial infection was disproportionally more common in males than females in Miniopterus spp., which might be explained by some aspect of roosting behavior of these cave-dwelling bats. We also found marked geographic structure in the three Litomosa clades, mainly linked to bioclimatic conditions rather than host-parasite associations. While this study demonstrates distinct patterns of filarial nematode infection in Malagasy bats and highlights potential drivers of associated geographic distributions, future work should focus on their alpha taxonomy and characterize arthropod vectors

Non-Equilibrium Chemistry of Dynamically Evolving Prestellar Cores: II. Ionization and Magnetic Field

We study the effect that non-equilibrium chemistry in dynamical models of collapsing molecular cloud cores has on measurements of the magnetic field in these cores, the degree of ionization, and the mean molecular weight of ions. We find that OH and CN, usually used in Zeeman observations of the line-of-sight magnetic field, have an abundance that decreases toward the center of the core much faster than the density increases. As a result, Zeeman observations tend to sample the outer layers of the core and consistently underestimate the core magnetic field. The degree of ionization follows a complicated dependence on the number density at central densities up to 10^5 cm^{-3} for magnetic models and 10^6 cm^{-3} in non-magnetic models. At higher central densities the scaling approaches a power-law with a slope of -0.6 and a normalization which depends on the cosmic-ray ionization rate {\zeta} and the temperature T as ({\zeta}T)^1/2. The mean molecular weight of ions is systematically lower than the usually assumed value of 20 - 30, and, at high densities, approaches a value of 3 due to the asymptotic dominance of the H3+ ion. This significantly lower value implies that ambipolar diffusion operates faster.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Feeding the Worlth Healthily: the Challenge of Measuring the effects of Agriculture on Health

Agricultural production, food systems and population health are intimately linked. While there is a strong evidence base to inform our knowledge of what constitutes a healthy human diet, we know little about actual food production or consumption in many populations and how developments in the food and agricultural system will affect dietary intake patterns and health. The paucity of information on food production and consumption is arguably most acute in low- and middle-income countries, where it is most urgently needed to monitor levels of under-nutrition, the health impacts of rapid dietary transition and the increasing ‘double burden’ of nutrition-related disease. Food availability statistics based on food commodity production data are currently widely used as a proxy measure of national-level food consumption, but using data from the UK and Mexico we highlight the potential pitfalls of this approach. Despite limited resources for data collection, better systems of measurement are possible. Important drivers to improve collection systems may include efforts to meet international development goals and partnership with the private sector. A clearer understanding of the links between the agriculture and food system and population health will ensure that health becomes a critical driver of agricultural change