A unified approach of catastrophic events

Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological crises, namely, epileptic seizure and heart failure

A bio-economic evaluation of the potential for establishing a commercial fishery on two newly developed stocks: the Ionian Red Shrimp Fishery

It has recently been shown that two deep-water red shrimp species (Aristeus antennatus and Aristaeomorpha foliacea) have the potential to support a viable fishery in the Greek Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this article, we investigate (i) the evolution that this newly developed trawl shrimp fishery may undergo when subjected to different management measures, and (ii) the most suitable extraction rates considering the uncertainties about the resource. We further analyse the effects that potential future fuel price increases and changes in the market may have on the fishery. Forecasting the biological and economic consequences of management actions, as well as the effects of market changes on inputs and outputs before they are applied, may help managers select the most suitable management options. We approach the problem by means of bio-economic simulation analysis. The results of this study show that fishing effort can increase by 50-100%, increasing the fleet's profitability without jeopardizing the sustainability of the fishery

Scaling similarities of multiple fracturing of solid materials

It has recently reported that electromagnetic flashes of low-energy <IMG WIDTH='12' HEIGHT='29' ALIGN='MIDDLE' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img1.gif' ALT='$gamma$'>-rays emitted during multi-fracturing on a neutron star, and electromagnetic pulses emitted in the laboratory by a disordered material subjected to an increasing external load, share distinctive statistical properties with earthquakes, such as power-law energy distributions (Cheng et al., 1996; Kossobokov et al., 2000; Rabinovitch et al., 2001; Sornette and Helmstetter, 2002). The neutron starquakes may release strain energies up to <IMG WIDTH='32' HEIGHT='16' ALIGN='BOTTOM' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img2.gif' ALT='$10^{46}$'>erg, while, the fractures in laboratory samples release strain energies approximately a fraction of an erg. An earthquake fault region can build up strain energy up to approximately <IMG WIDTH='32' HEIGHT='16' ALIGN='BOTTOM' BORDER='0' src='http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/11/137/2004/npg-11-137-img3.gif' ALT='$10^{26}$'>erg for the strongest earthquakes. Clear sequences of kilohertz-megahertz electromagnetic avalanches have been detected from a few days up to a few hours prior to recent destructive earthquakes in Greece. A question that arises effortlessly is if the pre-seismic electromagnetic fluctuations also share the same statistical properties. Our study justifies a positive answer. Our analysis also reveals 'symptoms' of a transition to the main rupture common with earthquake sequences and acoustic emission pulses observed during laboratory experiments (Maes et al., 1998)

Critical features in electromagnetic anomalies detected prior to the L'Aquila earthquake

Electromagnetic (EM) emissions in a wide frequency spectrum ranging from kHz to MHz are produced by opening cracks, which can be considered as the so-called precursors of general fracture. We emphasize that the MHz radiation appears earlier than the kHz in both laboratory and geophysical scale. An important challenge in this field of research is to distinguish characteristic epochs in the evolution of precursory EM activity and identify them with the equivalent last stages in the earthquake (EQ) preparation process. Recently, we proposed the following two epochs/stages model: (i) The second epoch, which includes the finally emerged strong impulsive kHz EM emission is due to the fracture of the high strength large asperities that are distributed along the activated fault sustaining the system. (ii) The first epoch, which includes the initially emerged MHz EM radiation is thought to be due to the fracture of a highly heterogeneous system that surrounds the family of asperities. A catastrophic EQ of magnitude Mw = 6.3 occurred on 06/04/2009 in central Italy. The majority of the damage occurred in the city of L'Aquila. Clear kHz - MHz EM anomalies have been detected prior to the L'Aquila EQ. Herein, we investigate the seismogenic origin of the detected MHz anomaly. The analysis in terms of intermittent dynamics of critical fluctuations reveals that the candidate EM precursor: (i) can be described in analogy with a thermal continuous phase transition; (ii) has anti-persistent behaviour. These features suggest that the emerged candidate precursor could be triggered by microfractures in the highly disordered system that surrounded the backbone of asperities of the activated fault. We introduce a criterion for an underlying strong critical behavior.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

International audienceWe show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release ? manifested in the increase in susceptibility ? couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback) to persistent (positive feedback) behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere

Evolving towards a critical point: A possible electromagnetic way in which the critical regime is reached as the rupture approaches

International audienceIn analogy to the study of critical phase transitions in statistical physics, it has been argued recently that the fracture of heterogeneous materials could be viewed as a critical phenomenon, either at laboratory or at geophysical scales. If the picture of the development of the fracture is correct one may guess that the precursors may reveal the critical approach of the main-shock. When a heterogeneous material is stretched, its evolution towards breaking is characterized by the appearance of microcracks before the final break-up. Microcracks produce both acoustic and electromagnetic(EM) emission in the frequency range from VLF to VHF. The microcracks and the associated acoustic and EM activities constitute the so-called precursors of general fracture. These precursors are detectable not only at laboratory but also at geophysical scales. VLF and VHF acoustic and EM emissions have been reported resulting from volcanic and seismic activities in various geologically distinct regions of the world. In the present work we attempt to establish the hypothesis that the evolution of the Earth's crust towards the critical point takes place not only in a mechanical but also in an electromagnetic sense. In other words, we focus on the possible electromagnetic criticality, which is reached while the catastrophic rupture in the Earth's crust approaches. Our main tool is the monitoring of micro-fractures that occur before the final breakup, by recording their radio-electromagnetic emissions. We show that the spectral power law analysis of the electromagnetic precursors reveals distinguishing signatures of underlying critical dynamics, such as: (i) the emergence of memory effects; (ii) the decrease with time of the anti-persistence behaviour; (iii) the presence of persistence properties in the tail of the sequence of the precursors; and (iv) the acceleration of the precursory electro-magnetic energy release. Moreover, the statistical analysis of the amplitudes of the electromagnetic fluctuations reveals the breaking of the symmetry as the theory predicts. Finally, we try to answer the question: how universal the observed electromagnetic critical behaviour of the failing system is