Global ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon

48 páginas, 7 figuras, 7 tablas. -- S. Kathiwala ... et al.-- Proyecto CarbochangeThe global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data-assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air-sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant estimates provide important constraints on ocean forward models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 Pg C with an uncertainty of ±20%. This estimate includes a broad range of values suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2.Peer reviewe

Changes to the air‐sea flux and distribution of radiocarbon in the ocean over the 21st century

We investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of radiocarbon (Δ14C) in the ocean over the 21st century under different scenarios for anthropogenic CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 and radiocarbon changes using a 3‐D ocean carbon cycle model. Strong decreases in atmospheric Δ14C in the high‐emission scenario result in strong outgassing of 14C over 2050–2100, causing Δ14C spatial gradients in the surface ocean and vertical gradients between the surface and intermediate waters to reverse sign. Surface Δ14C in the subtropical gyres is lower than Δ14C in Pacific Deep Water and Southern Ocean surface water in 2100. In the low‐emission scenario, ocean Δ14C remains slightly higher than in 1950 and relatively constant over 2050–2100. Over the next 20 years we find decadal changes in Δ14C of −30‰ to +5‰ in the upper 2 km of the ocean, which should be detectable with continued hydrographic surveys. Our simulations can help in planning future observations, and they provide a baseline for investigating natural or anthropogenic changes in ocean circulation using ocean Δ14C observations and models

Changes in Oceanic Radiocarbon and CFCs Since the 1990s

Anthropogenic perturbations from fossil fuel burning, nuclear bomb testing, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) use have created useful transient tracers of ocean circulation. The atmospheric 14C/C ratio (∆14C) peaked in the early 1960s and has decreased now to pre‐industrial levels, while atmospheric CFC‐11 and CFC‐12 concentrations peaked in the early 1990s and early 2000s, respectively, and have now decreased by 10%–20%. We present the first analysis of a decade of new observations (2007 to 2018–2019) and give a comprehensive overview of the changes in ocean ∆14C and CFC concentration since the WOCE surveys in the 1990s. Surface ocean ∆14C decreased at a nearly constant rate from the 1990–2010s (20‰/decade). In most of the surface ocean ∆14C is higher than in atmospheric CO2 while in the interior ocean, only a few places are found to have increases in ∆14C, indicating that globally, oceanic bomb 14C uptake has stopped and reversed. Decreases in surface ocean CFC‐11 started between the 1990 and 2000s, and CFC‐12 between the 2000–2010s. Strong coherence in model biases of decadal changes in all tracers in the Southern Ocean suggest ventilation of Antarctic Intermediate Water was enhanced from the 1990 to the 2000s, whereas ventilation of Subantarctic Mode Water was enhanced from the 2000 to the 2010s. The decrease in surface tracers globally between the 2000 and 2010s is consistently stronger in observations than in models, indicating a reduction in vertical transport and mixing due to stratification

Future changes in δ 13 C of dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean

Emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion are reducing the ratio 13C/12C, δ13C, in atmospheric urn:x-wiley:23284277:media:eft2900:eft2900-math-0001 and in the carbon in the ocean and terrestrial biosphere that exchanges with the atmosphere on timescales of decades to centuries. Future changes to fossil fuel emissions vary across different scenarios and may cause decreases of more than 6‰ in atmospheric δ13urn:x-wiley:23284277:media:eft2900:eft2900-math-0002 between 1850 and 2100. The effects of these potential changes on the three-dimensional distribution of δ13C in the ocean has not yet been investigated. Here, we use an ocean biogeochemical-circulation model forced with a range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-based scenarios to simulate δ13C in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon from 1850 to 2100. In the future, vertical δ13C gradients characteristic of the biological pump are reduced or reversed, relative to the preindustrial period, with the reversal occurring in higher emission scenarios. For the highest emission scenario, SSP5-8.5, surface δ13C in the centre of Pacific subtropical gyres falls from 2.2‰ in 1850 to -3.5‰ by 2100. In lower emission scenarios, δ13C in the surface ocean decreases but then rebounds. The relationship between anthropogenic carbon (Cant) and δ13C in the ocean shows a larger scatter in all scenarios, suggesting that errors in δ13C-based estimates of Cant may increase in the future. These simulations were run with fixed physical forcing and ocean circulation, providing a baseline of predicted δ13C. Further work is needed to investigate the impact of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks on ocean δ13C changes

Using shortened spin‐ups to speed up ocean biogeochemical model optimization

The performance of global ocean biogeochemical models can be quantified as the misfit between modeled tracer distributions and observations, which is sought to be minimized during parameter optimization. These models are computationally expensive due to the long spin-up time required to reach equilibrium, and therefore optimization is often laborious. To reduce the required computational time, we investigate whether optimization of a biogeochemical model with shorter spin-ups provides the same optimized parameters as one with a full-length, equilibrated spin-up over several millennia. We use the global ocean biogeochemical model MOPS with a range of lengths of model spin-up and calibrate the model against synthetic observations derived from previous model runs using a derivative-free optimization algorithm (DFO-LS). When initiating the biogeochemical model with tracer distributions that differ from the synthetic observations used for calibration, a minimum spin-up length of 2,000 years was required for successful optimization due to certain parameters which influence the transport of matter from the surface to the deeper ocean, where timescales are longer. However, preliminary results indicate that successful optimization may occur with an even shorter spin-up by a judicious choice of initial condition, here the synthetic observations used for calibration, suggesting a fruitful avenue for future research

Chromophoric signatures of microbial by-products in the dark ocean

En prensa3,792

Water mass age and ageing driving chromophoric dissolved organic matter in the dark global ocean

Research articleThe omnipresence of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in the open ocean enables its use as a tracer for biochemical processes throughout the global overturning circulation. We made an inventory of CDOM optical properties, ideal water age (τ), and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) along the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Ocean waters sampled during the Malaspina 2010 expedition. A water mass analysis was applied to obtain intrinsic, hereinafter archetypal, values of τ, AOU, oxygen utilization rate (OUR), and CDOM absorption coefficients, spectral slopes and quantum yield for each one of the 22 water types intercepted during this circumnavigation. Archetypal values of AOU and OUR have been used to trace the differential influence of water mass aging and aging rates, respectively, on CDOM variables. Whereas the absorption coefficient at 325nm (a325) and the fluorescence quantum yield at 340nm (Φ340) increased, the spectral slope over the wavelength range 275–295nm (S275–295) and the ratio of spectral slopes over the ranges 275–295nm and 350–400nm (SR) decreased significantly with water mass aging (AOU). Combination of the slope of the linear regression between archetypal AOU and a325 with the estimated global OUR allowed us to obtain a CDOM turnover time of 634 ± 120 years, which exceeds the flushing time of the dark ocean (>200 m) by 46%. This positive relationship supports the assumption of in situ production and accumulation of CDOM as a by-product of microbial metabolism as water masses turn older. Furthermore, our data evidence that global-scale CDOM quantity (a325) is more dependent on aging (AOU), whereas CDOM quality (S275–295, SR, Φ340) is more dependent on aging rate (OUR).Versión del editor4,785