Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

The DNA Repair Gene APE1 T1349G Polymorphism and Risk of Gastric Cancer in a Chinese Population

Background: Apurinic/apyrimidinic endonuclease 1 (APE1) has a central role in the repair of apurinic apyrimidic sites through both its endonuclease and its phosphodiesterase activities. A common APE1 polymorphism, T1349G (rs3136820), was previously shown to be associated with the risk of cancers. Objective: We hypothesized that the APE1 T1349G polymorphism is also associated with risk of gastric cancer. Methods: In a hospital-based case-control study of 338 case patients with newly diagnosed gastric cancer and 362 cancerfree controls frequency-matched by age and sex, we genotyped the T1349G polymorphism and assessed its associations with risk of gastric cancer. Results: Compared with the APE1 TT genotype, individuals with the variant TG/GG genotypes had a significantly increased risk of gastric cancer (odds ratio = 1.69, 95 % confidence interval = 1.19–2.40), which was more pronounced among subgroups of aged #60 years, male, ever smokers, and ever drinkers. Further analyses revealed that the variant genotypes were associated with an increased risk for diffuse-type, low depth of tumor infiltration (T1 and T2), and lymph node metastasis gastric cancer. Conclusions: The APE1 T1349G polymorphism may be a marker for the development of gastric cancer in the Chinese population. Larger studies are required to validate these findings in diverse populations

Water velocity limits the temporal extent of herbivore effects on aquatic plants in a lowland river

The role of herbivores in regulating aquatic plant dynamics has received growing recognition from researchers and managers. However, the evidence for herbivore impacts on aquatic plants is largely based on short-term exclosure studies conducted within a single plant growing season. Thus, it is unclear how long herbivore impacts on aquatic plant abundance can persist for. We addressed this knowledge gap by testing whether mute swan (Cygnus olor) grazing on lowland river macrophytes could be detected in the following growing season. Furthermore, we investigated the role of seasonal changes in water current speed in limiting the temporal extent of grazing. We found no relationship between swan biomass density in 1 year and aquatic plant cover or biomass in the following spring. No such carry-over effects were detected despite observing high swan biomass densities in the previous year from which we inferred grazing impacts on macrophytes. Seasonal increases in water velocity were associated with reduced grazing pressure as swans abandoned river habitat. Furthermore, our study highlights the role of seasonal changes in water velocity in determining the length of the mute swan grazing season in shallow lowland rivers and thus in limiting the temporal extent of herbivore impacts on aquatic plant abundance

Processes Controlling Tropical Tropopause Temperature and Stratospheric Water Vapor in Climate Models

A warm bias in tropical tropopause temperature is found in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), in common with most models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5). Key dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes influencing the tropical tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in climate models are investigated using the MetUM. A series of sensitivity experiments are run to separate the effects of vertical advection, ice optical and microphysical properties, convection, cirrus clouds, and atmospheric composition on simulated tropopause temperature and lower-stratospheric water vapor concentrations in the tropics. The numerical accuracy of the vertical advection, determined in the MetUM by the choice of interpolation and conservation schemes used, is found to be particularly important. Microphysical and radiative processes are found to influence stratospheric water vapor both through modifying the tropical tropopause temperature and through modifying upper-tropospheric water vapor concentrations, allowing more water vapor to be advected into the stratosphere. The representation of any of the processes discussed can act to significantly reduce biases in tropical tropopause temperature and stratospheric water vapor in a physical way, thereby improving climate simulations

How does gender influence the recognition of cardiovascular risk and adherence to self-care recommendations? : a study in polish primary care

Background: Studies have shown a correlation between gender and an ability to change lifestyle to reduce the risk of disease. However, the results of these studies are ambiguous, especially where a healthy lifestyle is concerned. Additionally, health behaviors are strongly modified by culture and the environment. Psychological factors also substantially affect engagement with disease-related lifestyle interventions. This study aimed to examine whether there are differences between men and women in the frequency of health care behavior for the purpose of reducing cardiovascular risk (CVR), as well as cognitive appraisal of this type of risk. We also aimed to identify the psychological predictors of engaging in recommended behavior for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease after providing information about this risk in men and women. Methods: A total of 134 consecutive eligible patients in a family practice entered a longitudinal study. At initial consultation, the individual’s CVR and associated health burden was examined, and preventive measures were recommended by the physician. Self-care behavior, cognitive appraisal of risk, and coping styles were then assessed using psychological questionnaires. Six months after the initial data collection, the frequency of subjects’ self-care behavior was examined. Results: We found an increase in health care behavior after providing information regarding the rate of CVR in both sexes; this increase was greater for women than for men. Women followed self-care guidelines more often than men, particularly for preventive measures and dietary advice. Women were more inclined to recognize their CVR as a challenge. Coping style, cognitive appraisal, age, level of health behaviors at baseline and CVR values accounted for 48% of the variance in adherence to self-care guidelines in women and it was 52% in men. In women, total risk of CVD values were most important, while in men, cognitive appraisal of harm/loss was most important. Conclusions: Different predictors of acquisition of health behavior are encountered in men and women. Our results suggest that gender-adjusted motivation models influencing the recognition process need to be considered to optimize compliance in patients with CVR

Good Gig, Bad Gig: Autonomy and Algorithmic Control in the Global Gig Economy

This article evaluates the job quality of work in the remote gig economy. Such work consists of the remote provision of a wide variety of digital services mediated by online labour platforms. Focusing on workers in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, the article draws on semi-structured interviews in six countries (N = 107) and a cross-regional survey (N = 679) to detail the manner in which remote gig work is shaped by platform-based algorithmic control. Despite varying country contexts and types of work, we show that algorithmic control is central to the operation of online labour platforms. Algorithmic management techniques tend to offer workers high levels of flexibility, autonomy, task variety and complexity. However, these mechanisms of control can also result in low pay, social isolation, working unsocial and irregular hours, overwork, sleep deprivation and exhaustion

Unexpectedly rapid evolution of mandibular shape in hominins

Members of the hominins – namely the so-called ‘australopiths’ and the species of the genus Homo – are known to possess short and deep mandibles and relatively small incisors and canines. It is commonly assumed that this suite of traits evolved in early members of the clade in response to changing environmental conditions and increased consumption of though food items. With the emergence of Homo, the functional meaning of mandible shape variation is thought to have been weakened by technological advancements and (later) by the control over fire. In contrast to this expectation, we found that mandible shape evolution in hominins is exceptionally rapid as compared to any other primate clade, and that the direction and rate of shape change (from the ape ancestor) are no different between the australopiths and Homo. We deem several factors including the loss of honing complex, canine reduction, and the acquisition of different diets may have concurred in producing such surprisingly high evolutionary rates. This study reveals the evolution of mandibular shape in hominins has strong morpho-functional and ecological significance attached

Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported herein

Alendronate Inhibits VEGF Expression in Growth Plate Chondrocytes by Acting on the Mevalonate Pathway

Bisphosphonates decrease chondrocyte turnover at the growth plate and impact bone growth. Likewise vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) plays an important role in endochondral bone elongation by influencing chondrocyte turnover at the growth plate. To investigate whether the action of bisphosphonate on the growth plate works through VEGF, VEGF protein expression and isoform transcription in endochondral chondrocytes isolated from growing mice and treated with a clinically used bisphosphonate, alendronate, were assessed. Alendronate at 10µM and 100µM concentrations decreased secreted VEGF protein expression but not cell associated protein. Bisphosphonates are known to inhibit the mevalonate intracellular signaling pathway used by VEGF. Addition of the mevalonate pathway intermediates farnesol (FOH) and geranylgeraniol (GGOH) interacted with the low concentration of alendronate to further decrease secreted VEGF protein whereas FOH partially restored VEGF protein secretion when combined with the high alendronate. Similar to the protein data, the addition of alendronate decreased VEGF mRNA isoforms. VEGF mRNA levels were rescued by the GGOH mevalonate pathway intermediate at the low alendronate dose whereas neither intermediate consistently restored the VEGF mRNA levels at the high alendronate dose. Thus, the bisphophonate alendronate impairs growth plate chondrocyte turnover by down-regulating the secreted forms of VEGF mRNA and protein by inhibiting the mevalonate pathway