Time-Varying Emulator for Short and Long-Term Analysis of Coastal Flood Hazard Potential

Rising seas coupled with ever increasing coastal populations present the potential for significant social and economic loss in the 21st century. Relatively short records of the full multidimensional space contributing to total water level coastal flooding events (astronomic tides, sea level anomalies, storm surges, wave run‐up, etc.) result in historical observations of only a small fraction of the possible range of conditions that could produce severe flooding. The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential is presented here as a methodology capable of producing new iterations of the sea‐state parameters associated with the present‐day Pacific Ocean climate to simulate many synthetic extreme compound events. The emulator utilizes weather typing of fundamental climate drivers (sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, etc.) to reduce complexity and produces new daily synoptic weather chronologies with an auto‐regressive logistic model accounting for conditional dependencies on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, seasonality, and the prior two days of weather progression. Joint probabilities of sea‐state parameters unique to simulated weather patterns are used to create new time series of the hypothetical components contributing to synthetic total water levels (swells from multiple directions coupled with water levels due to wind setup, temperature anomalies, and tides). The Time‐varying Emulator for Short‐ and Long‐Term analysis of coastal flood hazard potential reveals the importance of considering the multivariate nature of extreme coastal flooding, while progressing the ability to incorporate large‐scale climate variability into site specific studies assessing hazards within the context of predicted climate change in the 21st century

Augmenting Assessment with Learning Analytics

Learning analytics as currently deployed has tended to consist of large-scale analyses of available learning process data to provide descriptive or predictive insight into behaviours. What is sometimes missing in this analysis is a connection to human-interpretable, actionable, diagnostic information. To gain traction, learning analytics researchers should work within existing good practice particularly in assessment, where high quality assessments are designed to provide both student and educator with diagnostic or formative feedback. Such a model keeps the human in the analytics design and implementation loop, by supporting student, peer, tutor, and instructor sense-making of assessment data, while adding value from computational analyses

Is the ADA/EASD algorithm for the management of type 2 diabetes (January 2009) based on evidence or opinion? A critical analysis

The ADA and the EASD recently published a consensus statement for the medical management of hyperglycaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes. The authors advocate initial treatment with metformin monotherapy and lifestyle modification, followed by addition of basal insulin or a sulfonylurea if glycaemic goals are not met (tier 1 recommendations). All other glucose-lowering therapies are relegated to a secondary (tier 2) status and only recommended for selected clinical settings. In our view, this algorithm does not offer physicians and patients the appropriate selection of options to individualise and optimise care with a view to sustained control of blood glucose and reduction both of diabetes complications and cardiovascular risk. This paper critically assesses the basis of the ADA/EASD algorithm and the resulting tiers of treatment options

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.Personal research fellowship of Mark Schuerch (Project Number 272052902) and by the Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (Visiting Scholar Programme). Furthermore, this work has partly been supported by the EU research project RISES-AM- (FP7-ENV-693396)

Magic Curiosity Arousing Tricks (MagicCATs): a novel stimulus collection to induce epistemic emotions

There has been considerable interest in empirical research on epistemic emotions, i.e. emotions related to knowledge-generating qualities of cognitive tasks and activities such as curiosity, interest, and surprise. One big challenge when studying epistemic emotions is systematically inducting these emotions in restricted experimental settings. The current study created a novel stimulus set called Magic Curiosity Arousing Tricks (MagicCATs): a collection of 166 short magic trick video clips that aim to induce a variety of epistemic emotions. MagicCATs are available for research, and can be used in a variety of ways to examine epistemic emotions. Rating data also supports that the magic tricks elicit a variety of epistemic emotions with sufficient inter-stimulus variability, demonstrating good psychometric properties for their use in psychological experiments

Metals impact into the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex (Brazil) during the exceptional flood of 2011

Abstract Particulate and dissolved metal concentrations were determined after the largest flood in the last 30 years on the east-west axis of the Paranaguá Estuarine Complex (PEC) and compared to the those of the dry period at two stations. Results confirmed that the flood greatly affected riverine outflows and the behavior of metals in the PEC. In particular, a sharp decrease in salinity was followed by extremely high SPM concentrations leading to a decrease in DO concentrations at both stations. For the dissolved phase, ANOSIM analysis showed a significant dissimilarity at each station between the sampled periods, whereas for the particulate phase this dissimilarity was found only for the samplings taken at the Antonina Station. KD values suggested dissolved Cu behavior was related to the presence of organic complexes and dissolved Mn had sediment resuspension of redox sediments and or/pore water injection as sources. Metal concentrations were lower than in polluted estuaries, though high enrichment factors found after the flood pointed to the influence of anthropogenic sources. In conclusion, the flood's influence was more evident at the Antonina Station, due to its location in the upper estuary, whereas in Paranaguá a high SPM content with low metal concentration was found, following the common pattern generally found in other marine systems subject to heavy rainfall events