Synthesis and Assessment Product

This document is part of the Synthesis and Assessment Products described in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Strategic Plan. The U.S. Government's CCSP is responsible for providing the best science-based knowledge possible to inform management of the risks and opportunities associated with changes in the climate and related environmental systems. To support its mission, the CCSP has commissioned 21 "synthesis and assessment products" (SAPs) to advance decision making on climate change-related issues by providing current evaluations of climate change science and identifying priorities for research, observation, and decision support. This Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP), developed as part of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, examines potential effects of sea-level rise from climate change during the twenty-first century, with a focus on the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States. Using scientific literature and policy-related documents, the SAP describes the physical environments; potential changes to coastal environments, wetlands, and vulnerable species; societal impacts and implications of sea-level rise; decisions that may be sensitive to sea-level rise; opportunities for adaptation; and institutional barriers to adaptation

Pulse‐labeling studies of carbon cycling in Arctic tundra ecosystems: The contribution of photosynthates to methane emission

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94952/1/gbc790.pd

Error determination in the photogrammetric assessment of shoreline changes

The evaluation of error or uncertainty in shoreline change studies is an issue of prime importance for providing an adequate framework for calculated rates of change and to allow the establishment of threshold values above which the rates would be significant. In this note, a practical, easy-to-use method is presented to estimate error involved in the calculation of shoreline changes on aerial photographs, including the three most used types of shoreline indicators: high water line, dune/cliff toe and cliff top. This approach takes into account the specific characteristics of each shoreline proxy, such as relief in the case of the cliff top or tidal oscillations in the case of the high water line. At the same time it includes the error components that are independent from the proxy, basically related to the technical aspects of the process such as photo scanning and georeferencing. A practical example of application of the method is provided for several types of data inputs, based on shoreline changes around the Bay of Cádiz (SW Spain)

Ornithine decarboxylase activity during development of the mouse inner ear in vivo and in vitro

Ornithine decarboxylase activity was determined during the development of the peripheral auditory system in the murine otocyst with the goal of understanding the role of this enzyme in the morphological and functional maturation of the inner ear. At gestational days 11 and 12 enzyme activity was more than 10-fold higher than adult levels. A sharp decline occured between day 12 and 13 after which activity rose to a peak around day 15. Activity then dropped continuously until near-adult levels were reached at birth. A lower specific activity of ODC but a similar time-course was seen in otocysts explanted at gestational day 13 and subsequently cultured for 6 days. For two stages of development, enzyme activity and binding of 3 H-α-difluoromethylornithine were compared. The four-fold difference in enzymatic activity on gestational days 15 and 17 was paralleled by a similar difference in binding. Ornithine decarboxylase activity during inner ear development therefore seems primarily regulated at the level of protein synthesis. Ornithine decarboxylase activity correlates with major inductive events in the morphogenesis of the cartilagenous otic capsule that serves as a template for the formation of the bony labyrinth. The pattern of activity may reflect the changes in the head mesenchyme that is recruited by the otocyst to aggregate and form its protective otic capsule.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47689/1/441_2004_Article_BF00340878.pd

Climate change and cultural heritage : a landscape vulnerability framework

This paper proposes a new framework for calculating vulnerability indices within archaeological resource management on a landscape-scale. Current approaches consider archaeological sites in isolation from their context within the historic landscape. The new framework advocated in this article assesses the vulnerability of landscape character areas, as defined through historic landscape characterisation. This framework uses a two-step vulnerability index: the first assesses the vulnerability of archaeological sites and landscape features; the second uses the results of the first vulnerability index, as well as spatial data on the landscape character areas and the threat in question to calculate the vulnerability of each landscape character area. The framework is applied to a brief case study in coastal North Wales, UK

Smartphone Technologies and Bayesian Networks to Assess Shorebird Habitat Selection

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In themethod developed,\u3e30managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications

Modélisation de l’impact du changement climatique sur l’érosion des dunes. Application à la Camargue

Three climatic changes scenariis were investigated by an increase of energy and by the duration of an extreme storm. The wave caracteristics properties and the sea level time series of the referenced storm were increased of about 5, 10 and 20 % in order to define the dune erosion. We evidenced that the wave height displays more influence on the dune erosion than the sea level. Moreover, the storm duration, over 4 days, does not play an important role on the dune erosion. However, there is no proportional relationships between a weak storm energy increase and/or duration, and dune erosion. A small increase of storm will have a large impact on dune erosion in the future.