Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation

Topical anaesthetics for premature ejaculation: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Eutectic Mixture of Local Anaesthetics (EMLA) is recommended for use off-label as a treatment for premature ejaculation (PE). Other topical anaesthetics are available, some of which have been evaluated against oral treatments. The purpose of this systematic review was to evaluate the evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for topical anaesthetics in the management of PE. Bibliographic databases including MEDLINE were searched to August 2014. The primary outcome was intra-vaginal ejaculatory latency time (IELT). Methodological quality of RCTs was assessed. IELT and other outcomes were pooled across RCTs in a meta-analysis. Between-trial heterogeneity was assessed. Nine RCTs were included. Seven were of unclear methodological quality. Pooled evidence (two RCTs, 43 participants) suggests that EMLA is significantly more effective than placebo at increasing IELT (P < 0.00001). Individual RCT evidence also suggests that Topical Eutectic-like Mixture for Premature Ejaculation (TEMPE) spray and lidocaine gel are both significantly more effective than placebo (P = 0.003; P < 0.00001); and lidocaine gel is significantly more effective than sildenafil or paroxetine (P = 0.01; P = 0.0001). TEMPE spray is associated with significantly more adverse events than placebo (P = 0.003). More systemic adverse events are reported with tramadol, sildenafil and paroxetine than with lidocaine gel. Diverse methods of assessing sexual satisfaction and ejaculatory control with topical anaesthetics are reported and evidence is conflicting. Topical anaesthetics appear more effective than placebo, paroxetine and sildenafil at increasing IELT in men with PE. However, the methodological quality of the existing RCT evidence base is uncertain

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Tokophobia and fear of birth: a workshop consensus statement on current issues and recommendations for future research.

Objective: To discuss and develop a statement on the current state of the evidence and opinion in Fear of Childbirth (FoC) and Tokophobia (Tocophobia), and to provide recommendations. Background: A group met in 2019 to discuss the state of clinical and academic knowledge relating to FoC/Tokophobia. Five key areas were agreed as the focus of the meeting. Methods: 12 internationally acknowledged experts, in this or a closely related area (e.g. PTSD) met to discuss their understanding of the evidence for FoC/ Tokophobia and current practice. The consensus described in this paper constitutes the expression of the general opinion of the participants and does not necessarily imply unanimity. Keys points: Work focussed on tokophobia is recent and there remains a wide range of issues, which were addressed in the workshop including complexity in defining prevalence, a theoretical lack of understanding, which creates challenge for robust assessment and the identification of risk factors. An improved aetiological and developmental understanding of the tokophobia is required to underpin appropriate, effective and evidence-based interventions. Evaluation of pathways of care and relevant interventions, should be a focus of future research. Conclusion: Significant gaps remain within the FoC/tokophobia knowledge base. Further research is necessary

Disease Severity in Patients Infected with Leishmania mexicana Relates to IL-1β

Leishmania mexicana can cause both localized (LCL) and diffuse (DCL) cutaneous leishmaniasis, yet little is known about factors regulating disease severity in these patients. We analyzed if the disease was associated with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IL-1β (−511), CXCL8 (−251) and/or the inhibitor IL-1RA (+2018) in 58 Mexican mestizo patients with LCL, 6 with DCL and 123 control cases. Additionally, we analyzed the in vitro production of IL-1β by monocytes, the expression of this cytokine in sera of these patients, as well as the tissue distribution of IL-1β and the number of parasites in lesions of LCL and DCL patients. Our results show a significant difference in the distribution of IL-1β (−511 C/T) genotypes between patients and controls (heterozygous OR), with respect to the reference group CC, which was estimated with a value of 3.23, 95% CI = (1.2, 8.7) and p-value = 0.0167), indicating that IL-1β (−511 C/T) represents a variable influencing the risk to develop the disease in patients infected with Leishmania mexicana. Additionally, an increased in vitro production of IL-1β by monocytes and an increased serum expression of the cytokine correlated with the severity of the disease, since it was significantly higher in DCL patients heavily infected with Leishmania mexicana. The distribution of IL-1β in lesions also varied according to the number of parasites harbored in the tissues: in heavily infected LCL patients and in all DCL patients, the cytokine was scattered diffusely throughout the lesion. In contrast, in LCL patients with lower numbers of parasites in the lesions, IL-1β was confined to the cells. These data suggest that IL-1β possibly is a key player determining the severity of the disease in DCL patients. The analysis of polymorphisms in CXCL8 and IL-1RA showed no differences between patients with different disease severities or between patients and controls

Mead-halls of the Oiscingas: a new Kentish perspective on the Anglo-Saxon great hall complex phenomenon

Widely cited as a metaphor for the emergence of kingship in early medieval England, the great hall complex represents one of the most distinctive and evocative expressions of the Anglo-Saxon settlement record, yet interpretation of these sites remains underdeveloped and heavily weighted towards Yeavering. Inspired by the results of recent excavations at Lyminge, this paper undertakes a detailed comparative interrogation of three great hall complexes in Kent and exploits this new regional perspective to advance understanding of the agency and embodied meanings of these settlements as ‘theatres of power’. Explored through the thematic prisms of place, social memory and monumental hybridity, this examination leads to a new appreciation of the involvement of great hall sites in the genealogical strategies of 7th-century royal dynasties and a fresh perspective on how this remarkable yet short-lived monumental idiom was adapted to harness the symbolic capital of Romanitas

Genome-wide pleiotropy and shared biological pathways for resistance to bovine pathogens

<div><p>Host genetic architecture is a major factor in resistance to pathogens and parasites. The collection and analysis of sufficient data on both disease resistance and host genetics has, however, been a major obstacle to dissection the genetics of resistance to single or multiple pathogens. A severe challenge in the estimation of heritabilities and genetic correlations from pedigree-based studies has been the confounding effects of the common environment shared among relatives which are difficult to model in pedigree analyses, especially for health traits with low incidence rates. To circumvent this problem we used genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism data and implemented the Genomic-Restricted Maximum Likelihood (G-REML) method to estimate the heritabilities and genetic correlations for resistance to 23 different infectious pathogens in calves and cows in populations undergoing natural pathogen challenge. Furthermore, we conducted gene-based analysis and generalized gene-set analysis to understand the biological background of resistance to infectious diseases. The results showed relatively higher heritabilities of resistance in calves than in cows and significant pleiotropy (both positive and negative) among some calf and cow resistance traits. We also found significant pleiotropy between resistance and performance in both calves and cows. Finally, we confirmed the role of the B-lymphocyte pathway as one of the most important biological pathways associated with resistance to all pathogens. These results both illustrate the potential power of these approaches to illuminate the genetics of pathogen resistance in cattle and provide foundational information for future genomic selection aimed at improving the overall production fitness of cattle.</p></div

Genome Wide Analysis of Inbred Mouse Lines Identifies a Locus Containing Ppar-γ as Contributing to Enhanced Malaria Survival

The genetic background of a patient determines in part if a person develops a mild form of malaria and recovers, or develops a severe form and dies. We have used a mouse model to detect genes involved in the resistance or susceptibility to Plasmodium berghei malaria infection. To this end we first characterized 32 different mouse strains infected with P. berghei and identified survival as the best trait to discriminate between the strains. We found a locus on chromosome 6 by linking the survival phenotypes of the mouse strains to their genetic variations using genome wide analyses such as haplotype associated mapping and the efficient mixed-model for association. This new locus involved in malaria resistance contains only two genes and confirms the importance of Ppar-γ in malaria infection