Modeling the impact of forecast-based regime switches on macroeconomic time series

Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive model where the regime switches depend on the forecast of the time series of interest. This forecast can either be an exogenous expert forecast or an endogenous forecast generated by the model. Results of an application of the model to US inflation shows that (i) forecasts lead to regime changes and have an impact on the level of inflation; (ii) a relatively large forecast results in actions which in the end lower the inflation rate; (iii) a counterfactual scenario where forecasts during the oil crises in the 1970s are assumed to be correct leads to lower inflation than observed

Parameter Estimation in Multivariate Logit models with Many Binary Choices

__Abstract__ The multivariate choice problem with correlated binary choices is investigated. The Multivariate Logit [MVL] model is a convenient model to describe such choices as it provides a closed-form likelihood function. The disadvantage of the MVL model is that the computation time required for the calculation of choice probabilities increases exponentially with the number of binary choices under consideration. This makes maximum likelihood-based estimation infeasible in case there are many binary choices. To solve this issue we propose three novel estimation methods which are much easier to obtain, show little loss in efficiency and still perform similar to the standard Maximum Likelihood approach in terms of small sample bias. These three methods are based on (i) stratified importance sampling, (ii) composite conditional likelihood, and (iii) generalized method of moments. Monte Carlo results show that the gain in computation time in the Composite Conditional Likelihood estimation approach is large and convincingly outweighs the limited loss in efficiency. This estimation approach makes it feasible to straightforwardly apply the MVL model in practical cases where the number of studied binary choices is large

Item response theory evaluation of the biomedical scale of the Pain Attitudes and Beliefs Scale.

OBJECTIVES: The assessment of health care professionals' attitudes and beliefs towards musculoskeletal pain is essential because they are key determinants of their clinical practice behaviour. The Pain Attitudes and Beliefs Scale (PABS) biomedical scale evaluates the degree of health professionals' biomedical orientation towards musculoskeletal pain and was never assessed using item response theory (IRT). This study aimed at assessing the psychometric performance of the 10-item biomedical scale of the PABS scale using IRT. METHODS: Two cross-sectional samples (BeBack, n = 1016; DABS; n = 958) of health care professionals working in the UK were analysed. Mokken scale analysis (nonparametric IRT) and common factor analysis were used to assess dimensionality of the instrument. Parametric IRT was used to assess model fit, item parameters, and local reliability (measurement precision). RESULTS: Results were largely similar in the two samples and the scale was found to be unidimensional. The graded response model showed adequate fit, covering a broad range of the measured construct in terms of item difficulty. Item 3 showed some misfit but only in the DABS sample. Some items (i.e. 7, 8 and 9) displayed remarkably higher discrimination parameters than others (4, 5 and 10). The scale showed satisfactory measurement precision (reliability > 0.70) between theta values -2 and +3. DISCUSSION: The 10-item biomedical scale of the PABS displayed adequate psychometric performance in two large samples of health care professionals, and it is suggested to assess group-level professionals degree of biomedical orientation towards musculoskeletal pain

Factors Affecting The Efficiency Of Fox (Vulpes Vulpes) Baiting Practices On The Central Tablelands Of New South Wales

The European red fox (Vulpes vulpes L.) is a well known predator of native species and domestic stock, and is recognised as one of Australia’s most devastating vertebrate pests. Current fox management relies heavily on poisoning using baits impregnated with sodium monofluoroacetate (1080). This reliance on 1080 is likely to continue given the lack of viable alternatives for controlling foxes, so that, in the meanwhile, it is important to improve the efficiency of the current techniques. Factors affecting the susceptibility of individual foxes to bait include their ability to locate it, as well as the bait’s palatability and toxicity. The economic costs associated with using different bait types, the pattern and density of their distribution will also affect the efficiency of control programs. It is essential to examine and refine all such issues to ensure efficient use of the 1080 baiting technique. This thesis focuses generally on problems associated with management of the fox in eastern Australia. More specifically, I investigate the factors affecting the efficiency of fox baiting practices on the central tablelands of New South Wales. The study was conducted largely on agricultural lands near the town of Molong (33010’ 37”S, 148087’15”E) on the central tablelands of New South Wales. This area was chosen as it is broadly representative, in terms of land use, of a large region of eastern Australia. The highly modified, predominantly agricultural landscapes near Molong are well suited to foxes, and conflict with the predominantly pastoral community means that fox management is widely undertaken. I determined the persistence of 1080 in two commonly used bait types, Foxoff® and chicken wingettes, under different climatic and rainfall conditions. The rate of 1080 degradation did not change significantly between the central tablelands and the relatively hotter and drier western slopes. Foxoff® baits remained lethal for longer than wingettes under all conditions, although their rate of degradation generally increased with increasing rainfall. I confirmed the presence of defluorinating micro-organisms in thesoils of eastern Australia for the first time, and suggest that, following removal from the bait, 1080 would not persist in the environment for long. Bait should be attractive and highly palatable to ensure that the target species will find and consume it upon discovery. Caching, where discovered food is removed but not immediately consumed, may potentially reduce the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of baiting campaigns. I quantified the caching of chicken wingette, day-old chick and Foxoff® baits by inserting transmitters into bait material and assessing whether it was eaten or cached following removal. The intensity of caching did not change significantly between seasons. Type of bait had the largest influence on caching intensity, with a greater percentage of non-toxic Foxoff® baits (66.9%) being cached than either wingettes (5.7%) or day-old chicks (4.5%). The percentage of toxic (1080) baits cached was even greater, suggesting that 1080 bait may be less palatable, and detectable to foxes. I also investigated the use of conditioned taste aversion to reduce multiple bait uptake by foxes. Levamisole, an illness-inducing chemical, was added to bait and the fate of removed bait was again monitored via radio-telemetry. Following consumption of a levamisole-treated bait, foxes avoided eating treated baits but consumed untreated baits. I concluded that a reduction in bait consumption was achieved through learned aversion to levamisole rather than via conditioned taste aversion to baits. Adding levamisole to baits, especially non-toxic bait such as rabies vaccines, could potentially be used to reduce bait monopolisation by individual foxes. Fox density and den site preferences were assessed by investigating the distribution and density of fox natal dens on one property (9.6 km2) over three consecutive years. A total of 9 natal dens were located in 2000 and 2001, declining to 6 in 2002. No preference was shown for den sites on the basis of habitat, slope or aspect, but more dens were located under, or adjacent to cover. Assuming that each natal den represents a breeding pair and that the population sex ratio did not differ from parity (1:1), the site contained a prebreeding density of 1.9 foxes/km2 in 2000 and 2001, and 1.25 foxes/km2 in 2002. Given that the mean number of cubs is 4.0, the post-breeding density was estimated at 5.6 and 3.75 foxes/km2 in 2000/2001 and 2002, respectively. The results demonstrated that high densities of foxes occur on agricultural lands. The success and likely accuracy of the technique to monitor fox density suggests that it may be used to calibrate more efficient abundance estimates that will be essential for the strategic management of foxes in future. Pest animal management strategies are traditionally assessed for their effectiveness, with less consideration being given to the efficiency or cost of achieving the desired effect. I used cost-effectiveness analyses to compare between different baiting strategies based on the longevity, palatability and handling/replacement costs associated with each bait type. The results indicated that, when measured on a total cost-per-bait-consumed basis, wingettes and day-old chicks were the most cost-effective baits for campaigns of up to 4 weeks duration. This demonstrates the importance of including the longevity, and particularly the palatability of bait, when assessing cost-effectiveness. However, it is recognised that other factors, including the consistency of dosage and uptake by nontarget species, may be equally or more important in deciding the appropriate baiting strategy. The spatial and temporal application of fox baiting in the region overseen by the Molong Rural Lands Protection Board was examined between January 1998 and December 2002 as a case study to evaluate the apparent effectiveness of cooperative management practices. Most landholders (78.8%) did not bait for foxes during this period. Based on known dispersal distances, the effect of fox immigration into baited areas was determined. The results indicated that no areas baited for foxes were separated by a sufficient buffer distance (>9.58 km) from unbaited areas to be protected from fox immigration. This suggests that, at current levels of coordination, the effectiveness of most baiting operations in eastern Australia is compromised over the long term by fox immigration. However, it is recognised that short-term reductions in fox density may sometimes be all that are required to reduce predation to acceptable levels, especially for seasonally-susceptible prey. Ultimately, the cost-effectiveness of control should be evaluated in terms of the response of the prey rather than that of the predator. This study has highlighted deficiencies in current ‘best-practice’ baiting techniques. Specific recommendations for current baiting practices, in addition to future research, are also given. In brief, these include minimising free-feed baiting, increasing the minimum distance between bait stations, and, where possible, presenting the most palatable bait. Continued research into conditioned taste aversion, aerial baiting, and techniques to reduce caching are recommended as potential techniques to improve the efficiency of baiting practices

Age of second language acquisition affects nonverbal conflict processing in children : an fMRI study

Background: In their daily communication, bilinguals switch between two languages, a process that involves the selection of a target language and minimization of interference from a nontarget language. Previous studies have uncovered the neural structure in bilinguals and the activation patterns associated with performing verbal conflict tasks. One question that remains, however is whether this extra verbal switching affects brain function during nonverbal conflict tasks. Methods: In this study, we have used fMRI to investigate the impact of bilingualism in children performing two nonverbal tasks involving stimulus-stimulus and stimulus-response conflicts. Three groups of 8-11-year-old children - bilinguals from birth (2L1), second language learners (L2L), and a control group of monolinguals (1L1) - were scanned while performing a color Simon and a numerical Stroop task. Reaction times and accuracy were logged. Results: Compared to monolingual controls, bilingual children showed higher behavioral congruency effect of these tasks, which is matched by the recruitment of brain regions that are generally used in general cognitive control, language processing or to solve language conflict situations in bilinguals (caudate nucleus, posterior cingulate gyrus, STG, precuneus). Further, the activation of these areas was found to be higher in 2L1 compared to L2L. Conclusion: The coupling of longer reaction times to the recruitment of extra language-related brain areas supports the hypothesis that when dealing with language conflicts the specialization of bilinguals hampers the way they can process with nonverbal conflicts, at least at early stages in life

Differences between young and old university students on lexical decision task: evidence through an ex-Gaussian approach

This work compared two common variants of a lexical decision task (LDT) through two different analysis procedures: first, the classical ANOVA method, and second, by fitting the data to an ex-Gaussian distribution function. Two groups of participants (old and young university students) had to perform, blocks of go/no-go and yes/no tasks. Reaction times and error rates were much lower in the go/no-go task than in the yes/no task. Changes in the ex-Gaussian parameter related to attention were found with word frequency but not with the type of LDT tasks. These findings suggest that word frequency shows an attentional cost that is independent of age

Parameter estimation in multivariate logit models with many binary choices

2016 Copyrigh

Rotating Convection in an Anisotropic System

We study the stability of patterns arising in rotating convection in weakly anisotropic systems using a modified Swift-Hohenberg equation. The anisotropy, either an endogenous characteristic of the system or induced by external forcing, can stabilize periodic rolls in the K\"uppers-Lortz chaotic regime. For the particular case of rotating convection with time-modulated rotation where recently, in experiment, chiral patterns have been observed in otherwise K\"uppers-Lortz-unstable regimes, we show how the underlying base-flow breaks the isotropy, thereby affecting the linear growth-rate of convection rolls in such a way as to stabilize spirals and targets. Throughout we compare analytical results to numerical simulations of the Swift-Hohenberg equation

Residual confounding after adjustment for age: a minor issue in breast cancer screening effectiveness

Residual confounding, after adjustment for age, is the major criticism of observational studies on breast cancer screening effectiveness. We developed realistic scenarios for the prevalence and strength of risk factors on screened and not screened groups, and explored the impact of residual confounding bias. Our results demonstrate that residual confounding bias is a minor issue in screening programme evaluations