Oil Price Volatility, Financial Institutions and Economic Growth

Theory attributes finance with the ability to both promote growth and reduce output volatility. But evidence is mixed in both regards, partly due to endogeneity effects. For example, financial institutions themselves might be a source of volatility, as the events of 2008 suggest. We address this endogeneity issue by using oil price volatility as a source of exogenous volatility, to study the effect of finance. To do this, we use two empirical methodologies. First, we develop a quasi-natural experiment by studying the dramatic decline of oil prices in 2014 and beyond, using a synthetic control methodology. Our hypothesis is that the ability of oil-rich countries to mitigate the effects of this decline rested on the quality of their financial institutions. We focus on 11 oil-rich countries between 1980 and 2014 that had “poor” measures of financial development (treatment group) out of 20 such countries and synthetically create counterfactuals from the remaining (control) group with “superior” financial development. We subject both to the oil price shock of 2014. We find evidence that better financial institutions do indeed reduce output volatility and mitigate its negative effect on growth in the year that showed a sustained decline of the oil price. To address any remaining potential endogeneity between oil prices and finance, we further examine our findings by using a Panel CS-ARDL approach with 30 oil producing countries in our sample (and data over the period 1980-2016), illustrating that the effect of oil price volatility on growth is mitigated with better financial institutions. Our results make a strong case for the support of the positive role of financial development in growth and development

Deglacial δ18O and hydrologic variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters 387 (2014): 240–251, doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2013.11.032.Evidence from geologic archives suggests that there were large changes in the tropical hydrologic cycle associated with the two prominent northern hemisphere deglacial cooling events, Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; ∼19 to 15 kyr BP; kyr BP = 1000 yr before present) and the Younger Dryas (∼12.9 to 11.7 kyr BP). These hydrologic shifts have been alternatively attributed to high and low latitude origin. Here, we present a new record of hydrologic variability based on planktic foraminifera-derived δ18O of seawater (δ18Osw) estimates from a sediment core from the tropical Eastern Indian Ocean, and using 12 additional δ18Osw records, construct a single record of the dominant mode of tropical Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) hydrologic variability. We show that deglacial hydrologic shifts parallel variations in the reconstructed interhemispheric temperature gradient, suggesting a strong response to variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the attendant heat redistribution. A transient model simulation of the last deglaciation suggests that hydrologic changes, including a southward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which likely occurred during these northern hemisphere cold events, coupled with oceanic advection and mixing, resulted in increased salinity in the Indonesian region of the IPWP and the eastern tropical Pacific, which is recorded by the δ18Osw proxy. Based on our observations and modeling results we suggest the interhemispheric temperature gradient directly controls the tropical hydrologic cycle on these time scales, which in turn mediates poleward atmospheric heat transport.ThisworkwasfundedbytheNationalScienceFoundation;theOceanandClimateChangeInstituteandtheAcademicProgramsOfficeatWoodsHoleOceano-graphicInstitution;BMBF(PABESIA);andDFG(He3412/15-1

What I have learned about the ACL: utilizing a progressive rehabilitation scheme to achieve total knee symmetry after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction

Anterior cruciate ligament surgery and rehabilitation have changed drastically during the past 30 years. The patellar tendon autograft fixed with buttons provides tight bone-to-bone placement of the graft and quick bony healing, which allows accelerated rehabilitation to obtain full range of motion and strength. Although surgical stability is easily reproducible, long-term patient satisfaction is difficult to guarantee. Full knee range of motion should be compared to that of the contralateral normal knee, including full hyperextension. We followed the progress of all patients to gauge the utility of our rehabilitation program. In order of importance, the lack of normal knee range of motion (within 2° extension and 5° of flexion compared with that of the normal knee), partial or total medial meniscectomy, partial or total lateral meniscectomy, and articular cartilage damage were related to lower subjective scores. Rehabilitation after ACL reconstruction must first strive to achieve full symmetrical knee range of motion before aggressive strengthening can begin. Our current perioperative rehabilitation starts at the time of injury and preoperatively includes aggressive swelling reduction, hyperextension exercises, gait training, and mental preparation. Goals after surgery are to control swelling while regaining full knee range of motion. After quadriceps strengthening goals are reached, patients can shift to sport-specific exercises. When using a graft from the contralateral knee, the conflicting goals of strengthening the donor site and achieving full knee range of motion are divided between the knees. Thus, normal range of motion and strength can be achieved more easily and more quickly than when using an ipsilateral graft. Regardless of the graft source, a systematic rehabilitation program that emphasizes the return to symmetrical knee motion, including hyperextension, is necessary to achieve the optimum result

Estrogen deficiency – a central paradigm in age-related impaired healing?

Wound healing is a dynamic biological process achieved through four sequential, overlapping phases; hemostasis, inflammation, tissue proliferation and remodeling. For effective wound healing, all four phases must occur in the appropriate order and time frame. It is well accepted that the wound healing process becomes disrupted in the elderly, increasing the propensity of non-healing wound states that can lead to substantial patient morbidity and an enormous financial burden on healthcare systems. Estrogen deprivation in the elderly has been identified as the key driver of age-related delayed wound healing in both genders, with topical and systemic estrogen replacement reversing the detrimental effects of aging on wound repair. Evidence suggests estrogen deprivation may contribute to the development of chronic wound healing states in the elderly but research in this area is somewhat limited, warranting further investigations. Moreover, although the beneficial effects of estrogen on cutaneous healing have been widely explored, the development of estrogen-based treatments to enhance wound repair in the elderly have yet to be widely exploited. This review explores the critical role of estrogen in reversing age-related impaired healing and evaluates the prospect of developing more focused novel therapeutic strategies that enhance wound repair in the elderly via activation of specific estrogen signaling pathways in regenerating tissues, whilst leaving non-target tissues largely unaffected

2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 460 (2009): 1113-1116, doi:10.1038/nature08233.Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years. These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or highelevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo- Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values during the Medieval Warm Period from about AD 1000 to AD 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550–1850) were variable, and 0.5 to 1°C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of δ18O of sea water—a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator— indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial–millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.This work was financially supported by the US NSF and the Ocean Climate Change Institute of WHOI

A comparison of multidisciplinary team residential rehabilitation with conventional outpatient care for the treatment of non-arthritic intra-articular hip pain in UK Military personnel:a protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Non-arthritic hip disorders are defined as abnormalities of the articulating surfaces of the acetabulum and femur before the onset of osteoarthritis, including intra-articular structures such as the acetabular labrum and chondral surfaces. Abnormal femoroacetabular morphology is commonly seen in young men who constitute much of the UK military population. Residential multidisciplinary team (MDT) rehabilitation for patients with musculoskeletal injuries has a long tradition in the UK military, however, there are no studies presenting empirical data on the efficacy of a residential MDT approach compared with individualised conventional outpatient treatment. With no available data, the sustainability of this care pathway has been questioned. The purpose of this randomised controlled trial is to compare the effects of a residential multidisciplinary intervention, to usual outpatient care, on the clinical outcomes of young active adults undergoing treatment for non-arthritic intra-articular hip pain. METHODS/DESIGN: The trial will be conducted at the Defence Medical Rehabilitation Centre, Headley Court, UK. One hundred military male participants with clinical indicators of non-arthritic intra-articular hip pain will be randomly allocated to either: (1) 7-day residential multidisciplinary team intervention, n = 50; (2) 6-week physiotherapist-led outpatient intervention (conventional care), n = 50. Measurements will be taken at baseline, post-treatment (1-week MDT group; 6-weeks physiotherapy group), and 12-weeks. The primary outcome measures are the function in daily living sub-scale of the Copenhagen Hip and Groin Outcome Score (HAGOS), the physical function subscale of the Non-arthritic Hip Score (NAHS), and VAS pain scale. Secondary outcomes include objective measures of physical capacity and general health. An intention-to-treat analysis will be performed using linear and mixed models. DISCUSSION: This study will be the first to assess the efficacy of intensive MDT rehabilitation, versus conventional outpatient care, for the management of non-arthritic hip pain. The results from this study will add to the evidence-base and inform clinical practice for the management of intra-articular non-arthritic hip pain and femoroacetabular impingement in young active adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Reference: ISRCTN 59255714 dated 11-Nov-2015 ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12891-016-1309-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Reconstruction versus conservative treatment after rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament: cost effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: The decision whether to treat conservatively or reconstruct surgically a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is an ongoing subject of debate. The high prevalence and associated public health burden of torn ACL has led to continuous efforts to determine the best therapeutic approach. A critical evaluation of benefits and expenditures of both treatment options as in a cost effectiveness analysis seems well-suited to provide valuable information for treating physicians and healthcare policymakers. METHODS: A literature review identified four of 7410 searched articles providing sufficient outcome probabilities for the two treatment options for modeling. A transformation key based on the expert opinions of 25 orthopedic surgeons was used to derive utilities from available evidence. The cost data for both treatment strategies were based on average figures compiled by Orthopaedic University Hospital Balgrist and reinforced by Swiss national statistics. A decision tree was constructed to derive the cost-effectiveness of each strategy, which was then tested for robustness using Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: Decision tree analysis revealed a cost effectiveness of 16,038 USD/0.78 QALY for ACL reconstruction and 15,466 USD/0.66 QALY for conservative treatment, implying an incremental cost effectiveness of 4,890 USD/QALY for ACL reconstruction. Sensitivity analysis of utilities did not change the trend. CONCLUSION: ACL reconstruction for reestablishment of knee stability seems cost effective in the Swiss setting based on currently available evidence. This, however, should be reinforced with randomized controlled trials comparing the two treatment strategies

MeBo70 Seabed Drilling on a Polar Continental Shelf: Operational Report and Lessons From Drilling in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica

A multibarrel seabed drill rig was used for the first time to drill unconsolidated sediments and consolidated sedimentary rocks from an Antarctic shelf with core recoveries between 7% and 76%. We deployed the MARUM-MeBo70 drill device at nine drill sites in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Three sites were located on the inner shelf of Pine Island Bay from which soft sediments, presumably deposited at high sedimentation rates in isolated small basins, were recovered from drill depths of up to 36 m below seafloor. Six sites were located on the middle shelf of the eastern and western embayment. Drilling at five of these sites recovered consolidated sediments and sedimentary rocks from dipping strata spanning ages from Cretaceous to Miocene. This report describes the initial coring results, the challenges posed by drifting icebergs and sea ice, and technical issues related to deployment of the MeBo70. We also present recommendations for similar future drilling campaigns on polar continental shelves

Monsoons: global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation and rainfall. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and paleo variability deviates substantially from that of the longitudinal mean through mechanisms neither fully understood nor well simulated. A framework grounded in global constraints yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of mismatch between theory, models, and observations and, ultimately, improve regional climate projection. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and from the surface to the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and paleo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations