Interaction of microphysics and dynamics in a warm conveyor belt simulated with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) produce a major fraction of precipitation in extratropical cyclones and modulate the large-scale extratropical circulation. Diabatic processes, in particular associated with cloud formation, influence the cross-isentropic ascent of WCBs into the upper troposphere and additionally modify the potential vorticity (PV) distribution, which influences the larger-scale flow. In this study we investigate heating and PV rates from all diabatic processes, including microphysics, turbulence, convection, and radiation, in a case study that occurred during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) campaign using the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) modeling framework. In particular, we consider all individual microphysical process rates that are implemented in ICON\u27s two-moment microphysics scheme, which sheds light on (i) which microphysical processes dominate the diabatic heating and PV structure in the WCB and (ii) which microphysical processes are the most active during the ascent and influence cloud formation and characteristics, providing a basis for detailed sensitivity experiments. For this purpose, diabatic heating and PV rates are integrated for the first time along online trajectories across nested grids with different horizontal resolutions. The convection-permitting simulation setup also takes the reduced aerosol concentrations over the North Atlantic into account. Our results confirm that microphysical processes are the dominant diabatic heating source during ascent. Near the cloud top longwave radiation cools WCB air parcels. Radiative heating and corresponding PV modification in the upper troposphere are non-negligible due to the longevity of the WCB cloud band. In the WCB ascent region, the process rates from turbulent heating and microphysics partially counteract each other. From all microphysical processes condensational growth of cloud droplets and vapor deposition on frozen hydrometeors most strongly influence diabatic heating and PV, while below-cloud evaporation strongly cools WCB air parcels prior to their ascent and increases their PV value. PV production is the strongest near the surface with substantial contributions from condensation, melting, evaporation, and vapor deposition. In the upper troposphere, PV is reduced by diabatic heating from vapor deposition, condensation, and radiation. Activation of cloud droplets as well as homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing processes have a negligible diabatic heating contribution, but their detailed representation is important for, e.g., hydrometeor size distributions. Generally, faster-ascending WCB trajectories are heated markedly more than more slowly ascending WCB trajectories, which is linked to larger initial specific humidity content providing a thermodynamic constraint on total microphysical heating. Yet, the total diabatic heating contribution of convectively ascending trajectories is relatively small due to their small fraction in this case study. Our detailed case study documents the effect of different microphysical processes implemented in ICON\u27s two-moment scheme for heating and PV rates in a WCB from a joint Eulerian and Lagrangian perspective. It emphasizes the predominant role of microphysical processes and provides a framework for future experiments on cloud microphysical sensitivities in WCBs

Revisiting the latent heating contribution to foehn warming - Lagrangian analysis of two foehn events over the Swiss Alps

Foehn flows are typically associated with warm air temperatures. Though several theories for the so-called foehn air warming have been developed over the past century, no conclusion about the most important mechanism has been reached. The development of new methods to calculate accurate air-mass trajectories over complex topography has opened up a new perspective on this question. Air-mass-trajectories derived from wind-field data from COSMO model simulations with 20 s temporal resolution are used in this study to investigate the origin of the foehn air and the contribution of adiabatic and diabatic processes for two foehn events in the Swiss Alps, with a focus on the Rhine valley. The first foehn event investigated has no precipitation on the upstream side of the Alps. The majority of air parcels stem from upstream altitudes above 1.8 km and most of the foehn air warming is due to adiabatic descent (∼79%). In the second event investigated, significant upstream precipitation occurred. For this case, a significantly larger fraction of the foehn air parcels originate within the lowest 2 km of the upstream atmosphere (up to 70%). Adiabatic descent accounts for the largest part of the temperature change (∼70%), while moist diabatic processes explain about 60% of the potential temperature change. The vertical displacement across the Alpine range is correlated with the diabatic temperature change: parcels strongly heated by condensation, deposition and freezing are in general found at high altitudes above the foehn valley, while parcels affected by diabatic cooling through evaporation, sublimation and melting arrive closer to the valley floor. The high-resolution trajectories also indicate a much more complicated vertical and horizontal flow pattern than generally assumed, with several distinct air streams upstream of the mountain range and vertical ‘scrambling’ of air masses

Strong control of Southern Ocean cloud reflectivity by ice-nucleating particles

Large biases in climate model simulations of cloud radiative properties over the Southern Ocean cause large errors in modeled sea surface temperatures, atmospheric circulation, and climate sensitivity. Here, we combine cloud-resolving model simulations with estimates of the concentration of ice-nucleating particles in this region to show that our simulated Southern Ocean clouds reflect far more radiation than predicted by global models, in agreement with satellite observations. Specifically, we show that the clouds that are most sensitive to the concentration of ice-nucleating particles are low-level mixed-phase clouds in the cold sectors of extratropical cyclones, which have previously been identified as a main contributor to the Southern Ocean radiation bias. The very low ice-nucleating particle concentrations that prevail over the Southern Ocean strongly suppress cloud droplet freezing, reduce precipitation, and enhance cloud reflectivity. The results help explain why a strong radiation bias occurs mainly in this remote region away from major sources of ice-nucleating particles. The results present a substantial challenge to climate models to be able to simulate realistic ice-nucleating particle concentrations and their effects under specific meteorological conditions

Statistics of Earthquakes in Simple Models of Heterogeneous Faults

Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose properties yield power law scaling of earthquake statistics. Various dynamical effects can change the behavior to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system size events. The studies employ various analytic methods as well as simulations.Comment: 4 pages, RevTex, 3 figures (eps-files), uses eps

Gutenberg Richter and Characteristic Earthquake Behavior in Simple Mean-Field Models of Heterogeneous Faults

The statistics of earthquakes in a heterogeneous fault zone is studied analytically and numerically in the mean field version of a model for a segmented fault system in a three-dimensional elastic solid. The studies focus on the interplay between the roles of disorder, dynamical effects, and driving mechanisms. A two-parameter phase diagram is found, spanned by the amplitude of dynamical weakening (or ``overshoot'') effects (epsilon) and the normal distance (L) of the driving forces from the fault. In general, small epsilon and small L are found to produce Gutenberg-Richter type power law statistics with an exponential cutoff, while large epsilon and large L lead to a distribution of small events combined with characteristic system-size events. In a certain parameter regime the behavior is bistable, with transitions back and forth from one phase to the other on time scales determined by the fault size and other model parameters. The implications for realistic earthquake statistics are discussed.Comment: 21 pages, RevTex, 6 figures (ps, eps

Aerosol-cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds - Part 1: Aerosol perturbations

Changes induced by perturbed aerosol conditions in moderately deep mixed-phase convective clouds (cloud top height 5 km) developing along sea-breeze convergence lines are investigated with high-resolution numerical model simulations. The simulations utilise the newly developed Cloud-AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) module for the Unified Model (UM), which allows for the representation of the two-way interaction between cloud and aerosol fields. Simulations are evaluated against observations collected during the COnvective Precipitation Experiment (COPE) field campaign over the southwestern peninsula of the UK in 2013. The simulations compare favourably with observed thermodynamic profiles, cloud base cloud droplet number concentrations (CDNC), cloud depth, and radar reflectivity statistics. Including the modification of aerosol fields by cloud microphysical processes improves the correspondence with observed CDNC values and spatial variability, but reduces the agreement with observations for average cloud size and cloud top height. Accumulated precipitation is suppressed for higher-aerosol conditions before clouds become organised along the sea-breeze convergence lines. Changes in precipitation are smaller in simulations with aerosol processing. The precipitation suppression is due to less efficient precipitation production by warm-phase microphysics, consistent with parcel model predictions. In contrast, after convective cells organise along the sea-breeze convergence zone, accumulated precipitation increases with aerosol concentrations. Condensate production increases with the aerosol concentrations due to higher vertical velocities in the convective cores and higher cloud top heights. However, for the highest-aerosol scenarios, no further increase in the condensate production occurs, as clouds grow into an upper-level stable layer. In these cases, the reduced precipitation efficiency (PE) dominates the precipitation response and no further precipitation enhancement occurs. Previous studies of deep convective clouds have related larger vertical velocities under high-aerosol conditions to enhanced latent heating from freezing. In the presented simulations changes in latent heating above the 0°C are negligible, but latent heating from condensation increases with aerosol concentrations. It is hypothesised that this increase is related to changes in the cloud field structure reducing the mixing of environmental air into the convective core. The precipitation response of the deeper mixed-phase clouds along well-established convergence lines can be the opposite of predictions from parcel models. This occurs when clouds interact with a pre-existing thermodynamic environment and cloud field structural changes occur that are not captured by simple parcel model approaches

Model emulation to understand the joint effects of ice-nucleating particles and secondary ice production on deep convective anvil cirrus

Ice crystal formation in the mixed-phase region of deep convective clouds can affect the properties of climatically important convectively generated anvil clouds. Small ice crystals in the mixed-phase cloud region can be formed by heterogeneous ice nucleation by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and secondary ice production (SIP) by, for example, the Hallett–Mossop process. We quantify the effects of INP number concentration, the temperature dependence of the INP number concentration at mixed-phase temperatures, and the Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency on the anvil of an idealised deep convective cloud using a Latin hypercube sampling method, which allows optimal coverage of a multidimensional parameter space, and statistical emulation, which allows us to identify interdependencies between the three uncertain inputs. Our results show that anvil ice crystal number concentration (ICNC) is determined predominately by INP number concentration, with the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity having a secondary role. Conversely, anvil ice crystal size is determined predominately by the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity, with INP number concentration having a secondary role. This is because in our simulations ICNC is predominately controlled by the number concentration of cloud droplets reaching the homogeneous freezing level which is in turn determined by INP number concentrations at low temperatures. Ice crystal size, however, is more strongly affected by the amount of liquid available for riming and the time available for deposition growth which is determined by INP number concentrations at higher temperatures. This work indicates that the amount of ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process is determined jointly by the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency and the temperature dependence of ice-nucleating aerosol activity. In particular, our sampling of the joint parameter space shows that high rates of SIP do not occur unless the INP parameterisation slope (the temperature dependence of the number concentration of particles which nucleate ice) is shallow, regardless of the prescribed Hallett–Mossop splinter production efficiency. A shallow INP parameterisation slope and consequently high ice particle production by the Hallett–Mossop process in our simulations leads to a sharp transition to a cloud with extensive glaciation at warm temperatures, higher cloud updraughts, enhanced vertical mass flux, and condensate divergence at the outflow level, all of which leads to a larger convectively generated anvil comprised of larger ice crystals. This work highlights the importance of quantifying the full spectrum of INP number concentrations across all mixed-phase altitudes and the ways in which INP and SIP interact to control anvil properties

Implementation of a double moment cloud microphysics scheme in the UK met office regional numerical weather prediction model

Cloud microphysics parametrizations control the transfer of water between phases and hydrometeor species in numerical weather prediction and climate models. As a fundamental component of weather modelling systems cloud microphysics can determine the intensity and timing of precipitation, the extent and longevity of cloud cover and its impact on radiative balance, and directly influence near surface weather metrics such as temperature and wind. In this paper we introduce and demonstrate the performance of a double moment cloud microphysical scheme (CASIM: Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics) in both midlatitude and tropical settings using the same model configuration. Comparisons are made against a control configuration using the current operational single moment cloud microphysics, and CASIM configurations that use fixed in-cloud droplet number or compute cloud droplet number concentration from the aerosol environment. We demonstrate that configuring CASIM as a single moment scheme results in precipitation rate histograms that match the operational single moment microphysics. In the midlatitude setting, results indicate that CASIM performs as well as the single moment microphysics configuration, but improves certain aspects of the surface precipitation field such as greater extent of light (1 mm · hr⁻¹) rain around frontal precipitation features. In the tropical setting, CASIM outperforms the single moment cloud microphysics as evident from improved comparison with radar derived precipitation rates

Aerosol–cloud interactions in mixed-phase convective clouds – Part 2: Meteorological ensemble

The relative contribution of variations in meteorological and aerosol initial and boundary conditions to the variability in modelled cloud properties is investigated with a high-resolution ensemble (30 members). In the investigated case, moderately deep convection develops along sea-breeze convergence zones over the southwestern peninsula of the UK. A detailed analysis of the mechanism of aerosol–cloud interactions in this case has been presented in the first part of this study (Miltenberger et al. 2018). The meteorological ensemble (10 members) varies by about a factor of 2 in boundary-layer moisture convergence, surface precipitation, and cloud fraction, while aerosol number concentrations are varied by a factor of 100 between the three considered aerosol scenarios. If ensemble members are paired according to the meteorological initial and boundary conditions, aerosol-induced changes are consistent across the ensemble. Aerosol-induced changes in CDNC (cloud droplet number concentration), cloud fraction, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation (OSR), instantaneous and mean precipitation rates, and precipitation efficiency (PE) are statistically significant at the 5 % level, but changes in cloud top height or condensate gain are not. In contrast, if ensemble members are not paired according to meteorological conditions, aerosol-induced changes are statistically significant only for CDNC, cell number and size, outgoing shortwave radiation, and precipitation efficiency. The significance of aerosol-induced changes depends on the aerosol scenarios compared, i.e. an increase or decrease relative to the standard scenario. A simple statistical analysis of the results suggests that a large number of realisations (typically  > 100) of meteorological conditions within the uncertainty of a single day are required for retrieving robust aerosol signals in most cloud properties. Only for CDNC and shortwave radiation small samples are sufficient. While the results are strictly only valid for the investigated case, the presented evidence combined with previous studies highlights the necessity for careful consideration of intrinsic predictability, meteorological conditions, and co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions in observational or modelling studies on aerosol indirect effects