Integration of risk and uncertainty on levelized cost of electricity calculation

The electric sector is still largely dependent on non-renewable energy sources. The importance of using renewable energies is increasingly recognized all across the world yet they are not fully ready to compete with the mature and ancient technologies that use non-renewable energies. The economic characteristics of different energy technologies can be compared by using the method of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). LCOE represents the total cost of a power plant including investment and operation and maintenance costs over the assumed life-cycle and discounted to account for the time-value of money. In this paper, an analysis of the levelized costs is proposed for two renewable technologies in Portugal: wind power and solar photovoltaic. Firstly, a deterministic value of LCOE was computed for both technologies. Secondly, recognizing the uncertainty associated with all the assumed parameters, a probabilistic risk analysis was conducted with Monte Carlo simulation to complement the analysis. The results show the high variability of the obtained LCOE values, largely influenced by the investment values and load factors.INCT-EN - Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Excitotoxicidade e Neuroproteção(UID/CEC/00319/2013

The Effect of Hybrid Photovoltaic Thermal Device Operating Conditions on Intrinsic Layer Thickness Optimization of Hydrogenated Amorphous Silicon Solar Cells

Historically, the design of hybrid solar photovoltaic thermal (PVT) systems has focused on cooling crystalline silicon (c-Si)-based photovoltaic (PV) devices to avoid temperature-related losses. This approach neglects the associated performance losses in the thermal system and leads to a decrease in the overall exergy of the system. Consequently, this paper explores the use of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) as an absorber material for PVT in an effort to maintain higher and more favourable operating temperatures for the thermal system. Amorphous silicon not only has a smaller temperature coefficient than c-Si, but also can display improved PV performance over extended periods of higher temperatures by annealing out defect states from the Staebler-Wronski effect. In order to determine the potential improvements in a-Si:H PV performance associated with increased thicknesses of the i-layers made possible by higher operating temperatures, a-Si:H PV cells were tested under 1 sun illumination (AM1.5) at temperatures of 25oC (STC), 50oC (representative PV operating conditions), and 90 oC (representative PVT operating conditions). PV cells with an i-layer thicknesses of 420, 630 and 840 nm were evaluated at each temperature. Results show that operating a-Si:H-based PV at 90 oC, with thicker i-layers than the cells currently used in commercial production, provided a greater power output compared to the thinner cells operating at either PV or PVT operating temperatures. These results indicate that incorporating a-Si:H as the absorber material in a PVT system can improve the thermal performance, while simultaneously improving the electrical performance of a-Si:H-based PV

Bacterial Pathogens and Symbionts Harboured by Ixodes ricinus Ticks Parasitising Red Squirrels in the United Kingdom

Red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) are native to most of Eurasia; in much of the United Kingdom, they have been supplanted by the non-native grey squirrel, and are considered an endangered species. Very little is known about the range of tick-borne pathogens to which UK red squirrels are exposed. As part of trap-and-release surveys examining prevalence of Mycobacterium spp. in red squirrel populations on two UK islands, Ixodes ricinus ticks were removed from squirrels and PCR screened for Borrelia spp., intracellular arthropod-borne bacteria and the parasitic wasp Ixodiphagus hookeri. At both sites, the most commonly encountered tick-transmitted bacterium was Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (overall minimum prevalence 12.7%), followed by Anaplasma phagocytophilum (overall minimum prevalence 1.6%). Single ticks infected with Spiroplasma were found at both sites, and single ticks infected with Borrelia miyamotoi or an Ehrlichia sp. at one site. Ticks harbouring Wolbachia (overall minimum prevalence 15.2%) were all positive for I. hookeri. Our study shows that UK red squirrels are potentially exposed to a variety of bacterial pathogens via feeding ticks. The effects on the health and survival of this already vulnerable wildlife species are unknown, and further studies are needed to evaluate the threat posed to red squirrels by Borrelia and other tick-borne pathogens

Market dynamics, innovation, and transition in China's solar photovoltaic (PV) industry: a critical review

China's photovoltaic (PV) industry has undergone dramatic development in recent years and is now the global market leader in terms of newly added capacity. However, market diffusion and adoption in China is not ideal. This paper examines the blocking and inducement mechanisms of China's PV industry development from the perspective of technological innovation. By incorporating a Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach, the analysis performed here complements the previous literature, which has not grounded itself in a theoretical framework. In addition, to determine the current market dynamics, we closely examine market concentration trends as well as the vertical and horizontal integration of upstream and downstream actors (74.8% and 36.3%). The results of applying the TIS framework reveal that poor connectivity in networks, unaligned competitive entities and a lack of market supervision obstruct the development of China's PV industry. Therefore, we maintain that inducement mechanisms are required to instigate learning-by-doing capacities, which may help overcome blocking mechanisms and offset functional innovation deficiencies. In addition, policy implications are proposed for promoting the development of the PV industry in China

Photovoltaic power plants: a multicriteria approach to investment decisions and a case study in western Spain

his paper proposes a compromise programming (CP) model to help investors decide whether to construct photovoltaic power plants with government financial support. For this purpose, we simulate an agreement between the government, who pursues political prices (guaranteed prices) as low as possible, and the project sponsor who wants returns (stochastic cash flows) as high as possible. The sponsor s decision depends on the positive or negative result of this simulation, the resulting simulated price being compared to the effective guaranteed price established by the country legislation for photovoltaic energy. To undertake the simulation, the CP model articulates variables such as ranges of guaranteed prices, tech- nical characteristics of the plant, expected energy to be generated over the investment life, investment cost, cash flow probabilities, and others. To determine the CP metric, risk aver- sion is assumed. As an actual application, a case study on photovoltaic power investment in Extremadura, western Spain, is developed in detail.Garcia-Bernabeu, A.; Benito Benito, A.; Bravo Selles, M.; Pla Santamaría, D. (2015). Photovoltaic power plants: a multicriteria approach to investment decisions and a case study in western Spain. Annals of Operations Research. 1-12. doi:10.1007/s10479-015-1836-2S112Andrews, R. W., Pollard, A., & Pearce, J. M. (2012). Improved parametric empirical determination of module short circuit current for modelling and optimization of solar photovoltaic systems. Solar Energy, 86(9), 2240–2254.Anwar, Y., & Mulyadi, M. S. (2011). Income tax incentives on renewable energy industry: Case of geothermal industry in USA and Indonesia. African Journal of Business Management, 5(31), 12264–12270.Aouni, B., & Kettani, O. (2001). Goal programming model: A glorious history and a promising future. European Journal of Operational Research, 133(2), 225–231.Ballestero, E. (1997). 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Financial return for government support of large-scale thin-film solar photovoltaic manufacturing in Canada

As the Ontario government has recognized that solar photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is a solution to satisfying energy demands while reducing the adverse anthropogenic impacts on the global environment that compromise social welfare, it has begun to generate policy to support financial incentives for PV. This paper provides a financial analysis for investment in a 1 GW per year turnkey amorphous silicon PV manufacturing plant. The financial benefits for both the provincial and federal governments were quantified for: (i) full construction subsidy, (ii) construction subsidy and sale, (iii) partially subsidize construction, (iv) a publicly owned plant, (v) loan guarantee for construction, and (vi) an income tax holiday. Revenues for the governments are derived from: taxation (personal, corporate, and sales), sales of panels in Ontario, and saved health, environmental and economic costs associated with offsetting coal-fired electricity. Both governments enjoyed positive cash flows from these investments in less than 12 years and in many of the scenarios both governments earned well over 8% on investments from 100 s of millions to $2.4 billion. The results showed that it is in the financial best interest of both the Ontario and Canadian federal governments to implement aggressive fiscal policy to support large-scale PV manufacturing.Financing Government incentives Photovoltaic

Financial return for government support of large-scale thin-film solar photovoltaic manufacturing in Canada

As the Ontario government has recognized that solar photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is a solution to satisfying energy demands while reducing the adverse anthropogenic impacts on the global environment that compromise social welfare, it has begun to generate policy to support financial incentives for PV. This paper provides a financial analysis for investment in a 1. GW per year turnkey amorphous silicon PV manufacturing plant. The financial benefits for both the provincial and federal governments were quantified for: (i) full construction subsidy, (ii) construction subsidy and sale, (iii) partially subsidize construction, (iv) a publicly owned plant, (v) loan guarantee for construction, and (vi) an income tax holiday. Revenues for the governments are derived from: taxation (personal, corporate, and sales), sales of panels in Ontario, and saved health, environmental and economic costs associated with offsetting coal-fired electricity. Both governments enjoyed positive cash flows from these investments in less than 12 years and in many of the scenarios both governments earned well over 8% on investments from 100. s of millions to $2.4 billion. The results showed that it is in the financial best interest of both the Ontario and Canadian federal governments to implement aggressive fiscal policy to support large-scale PV manufacturing. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd

Hybridizing Virtual- and Field-Based Service-Learning in Green IT

Historically, service-learning (SL) projects can be classified two ways: (1) collaborations with a community group or nonprofit organization to provide specific problem solving around a community need, or (2) an internship-like experience with industry to address work requested by a client (e.g., in engineering service-learning). The limitation of both of these traditional SL approaches is that they do not prepare students to implement unprescribed projects. In contrast, in this chapter a pedagogical experiment is outlined in which students chose both the project and the partner for a self-directed SL experience. This chapter presents the findings of an ongoing investigation of this novel pedagogical exercise in which students acted as change agents for industry by implementing unsolicited energy-conservation measures (ECMs) in order to improve the organizations\u27 environmental and economic performance. The ECMs were largely focused on green information technology (IT), but could be applied to any form of environmentally beneficial technical or behavioral change. The hybrid SL projects described had both virtual and field-work SL components. For the virtual component, the Appropedia Foundation provided an open-source education tool on Appropedia. org for the project so that faculty anywhere in the world can have free access. The student teams developed and published open-source ECM calculators on Appropedia.org, which is a free, open-source, wiki-based tool for collaborative solutions in such areas as sustainability, poverty reduction, and international development. For the field-work component, the teams self-selected industry clients and performed energy audits and IT audits. Applicable ECMs, which had been developed during the virtual component of the project, were then selected and tailored, forming the basis of recommendations to the organizations. The results of this pedagogical exercise not only resulted in overwhelming positive responses from the client organizations and verbal or written commitments to improve their performance following the recommendations of the students, but they also demonstrated the effectiveness of such hybrid SL projects in terms of improving student motivation, learning, and quality of work. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc