The European Power Hierarchy, Member State Trust, and Public Support for the Common Security and Defense Policy. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 15 No. 2, August 2015

Existing studies focus on overall support for European integration while less work has been done on explaining public opinion on specific policy areas, such as the development of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). We hypothesize that the probability of supporting a CSDP increases with greater levels of trust in the European Union member states, most notably the more powerful members. This variable is critical since integration’s development is influenced strongly by, and dependent on, the resources of the relatively more powerful European member states. Binary logistic regression analyses using pooled repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted from 1992 to 1997 among individuals of 11 member states largely support these claims

Public Perceptions of the European Power Hierarchy and Support for a Common Foreign and Security Policy

Prior research on citizen support for European integration has primarily focused on individuals’ evaluations of the process of integration or its institutions, with emphasis on the importance of direct benefits and costs integration can confer. Explanations focus on overall support for integration and little work has been done on explaining public opinion on specific policy areas, such as the development of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). This paper will fill this gap in the research by synthesizing systems theory with social identity theory to produce a core claim that the probability of supporting the CFSP increases with greater levels of political trust in the European Union member-states, most notably France and Germany. This variable is critical since integration’s development is influenced strongly by, and dependent on, the resources of the relatively more powerful European member-states. The results hold even when controlling for other factors. Binary logistic regression analysis using pooled repeated cross-sectional data from the Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 1992 through 1997 among individuals of 11 member-states largely support these claims

The preference for belief, issue polarization, and echo chambers

Some common explanations of issue polarization and echo chambers rely on social or cognitive mechanisms of exclusion. Accordingly, suggested interventions like “be more open-minded” target these mechanisms: avoid epistemic bubbles and don’t discount contrary information. Contrary to such explanations, we show how a much weaker mechanism—the preference for belief—can produce issue polarization in epistemic communities with little to no mechanisms of exclusion. We present a network model (with an empirically-validated structure) that demonstrates how a dynamic interaction between the preference for belief and common structures of epistemic communities can turn very small unequal distributions of initial beliefs into full-blown polarization. This points to a different class of explanations, one that emphasizes the importance of the initial spread of information. We also show how our model complements extant explanations by including a version of biased assimilation and motivated reasoning—cognitive mechanisms of exclusion. We find that mechanisms of exclusion can exacerbate issue polarization, but may not be the ultimate root of it. Hence, the recommended interventions suggested by extant literature is expected to be limited and the problem of issue polarization to be even more intractable

Risk of Disease and Willingness to Vaccinate in the United State: A Population-Based Survey

Vaccination complacency occurs when perceived risks of vaccine-preventable diseases are sufficiently low so that vaccination is no longer perceived as a necessary precaution. Disease outbreaks can once again increase perceptions of risk, thereby decrease vaccine complacency, and in turn decrease vaccine hesitancy. It is not well understood, however, how change in perceived risk translates into change in vaccine hesitancy. We advance the concept of vaccine propensity, which relates a change in willingness to vaccinate with a change in perceived risk of infection—holding fixed other considerations such as vaccine confidence and convenience

Spatial Analysis of Cirques from Three Regions of Iceland: Implications for Cirque Formation and Palaeoclimate

This study is a quantitative analysis of cirques in three regions of Iceland: Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords and Vestfirðir. Using Google Earth and the National Land Survey of Iceland Map Viewer, we identified 347 new cirques on Tröllaskagi and the East Fjords region, and combined these data with 100 cirques previously identified on Vestfirðir. We used ArcGIS to measure length, width, aspect, latitude and distance to coastline of each cirque. Palaeo‐equilibrium‐line altitudes (palaeo‐ELAs) of palaeo‐cirque glaciers were calculated using the altitude‐ratio method, cirque‐floor method and minimum‐point method. The mean palaeo‐ELA values in Tröllaskagi, the East Fjords and Vestfirðir are 788, 643 and 408 m a.s.l, respectively. Interpolation maps of palaeo‐ELAs demonstrate a positive relationship between palaeo‐ELA and distance to coastline. A positive relationship between palaeo‐ELA and latitude is observed on Vestfirðir, a negative relationship is observed on Tröllaskagi and no statistically significant relationship is present on the East Fjords. The modal orientation of cirques on Tröllaskagi and Vestfirðir is northeast, while orientation of cirques in the East Fjords is north. Palaeo‐wind reconstructions for the LGM show that modal aspect is aligned with the prevailing north‐northeast wind directions, although aspect measurements demonstrate wide dispersion. Cirque length is similar on Tröllaskagi and the East Fjords, but cirques are approximately 200 m shorter in Vestfirðir. Cirque widths are similar in all three regions. Comparisons with a global data set show that cirques in Iceland are smaller and more circular than cirques in other regions of the world. Similar to glaciers in Norway and Kamchatka, our results demonstrate that access to a moisture source is a key parameter in determining palaeo‐ELAs in Iceland. Temperatures interpreted from palaeo‐ELA depressions suggest that these cirques may have been glaciated as recently as the Little Ice Age

Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy evaluation

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Variability in drift ice export from the Arctic Ocean to the North Icelandic Shelf over the last 8000 years: A multi-proxy evaluation journaltitle: Quaternary Science Reviews articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.06.012 content_type: article copyright: © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Quantitative hydrocarbon potential mapping and organofacies study in the Greater Balder Area, Norwegian North Sea

Reprinted from Justwan, H.& Dahl, B. Quantitative hydrocarbon potential mapping and organofacies study in the Greater Balder Area, Norwegian North Sea In: Doré, A. G. & Vining, B. A. (eds) Petroleum Geology: North-West Europe and Global Perspectives—Proceedings of the 6th Petroleum Geology Conference, 1317–1329. Copyright 2005, Petroleum Geology Conferences Ltd. Published by the Geological Society, London