Modelling Wind Turbine Failures based on Weather Conditions

A large proportion of the overall costs of a wind farm is directly related to operation and maintenance (O&M) tasks. By applying predictive O&M strategies rather than corrective approaches these costs can be decreased significantly. Here, especially wind turbine (WT) failure models can help to understand the components' degradation processes and enable the operators to anticipate upcoming failures. Usually, these models are based on the age of the systems or components. However, latest research shows that the on-site weather conditions also affect the turbine failure behaviour significantly. This study presents a novel approach to model WT failures based on the environmental conditions to which they are exposed to. The results focus on general WT failures, as well as on four main components: gearbox, generator, pitch and yaw system. A penalised likelihood estimation is used in order to avoid problems due to for example highly correlated input covariates. The relative importance of the model covariates is assessed in order to analyse the effect of each weather parameter on the model output

Probability density function selection based on the characteristics of wind speed data

The probabilistic approach has an important place in the wind energy research field as it provides cheap and fast initial information for experts with the help of simulations and estimations. Wind energy experts have been using the Weibull distribution for wind speed data for many years. Nevertheless, there exist cases, where the Weibull distribution is inappropriate with data presenting bimodal or multimodal behaviour which are unfit in high, null and low winds that can cause serious energy estimation errors. This paper presents a procedure for dealing with wind speed data taking into account non-Weibull distributions or data treatment when needed. The procedure detects deviations from the unimodal (Weibull) distribution and proposes other possible distributions to be used. The deviations of the used distributions regarding real data are addressed with the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the annual energy production (AEP)

Modelling the effects of environmental conditions on wind turbine failures

Operation and maintenance is one of the main cost drivers of modern wind farms and has become an emerging field of research over the past years. Understanding the failure behaviour of wind turbines (WTs) can significantly enhance operation and maintenance processes and is essential for developing reliability and strategic maintenance models. Previous research has shown that especially the environmental conditions, to which the turbines are exposed to, affect their reliability drastically. This paper compares several advanced modelling techniques and proposes a novel approach to model WT system and component failures based on the site-specific weather conditions. Furthermore, to avoid common problems in failure modelling, procedures for variable selection and complexity reduction are discussed and incorporated. This is applied to a big failure database comprised of 11 wind farms and 383 turbines. The results show that the model performs very well in several situations such as modelling general WT failures as well as failures of specific components. The latter is exemplified using gearbox failures

Selection of the Most Suitable Decomposition Filter for the Measurement of Fluctuating Harmonics

The proliferation of nonlinear loads in both industrial and residential distribution grids leads to undesirable nonsinusoidal and fluctuating harmonic pollution on voltage and current waveforms. New analysis tools, such as wavelets, are being used to overcome the problems posed by the use of the Fourier transform when analyzing complex waveforms. Nevertheless, the selection of the wavelet basis must be done carefully to minimize spectral leakage due to the nonexact frequency discrimination. In this context, this paper proposes an objective method for comparing different wavelet families for the measurement of harmonic contents. This methodology is applicable for determining the best filter among the 53 preselected structures according to the following requirements: frequency selectivity, computational complexity, convolution results, and observed spectral leakage. With all these considerations, the Butterworth infinite-impulse response filter of order 29 was found to be the best wavelet decomposition structure to achieve an effective harmonic analysis up to the 50th order

Wind Farm Management Decision Support Systems For Short Term Horizon

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing energy sources and its technology maturity level is already higher than the majority of other renewables. Therefore, many countries started to change their financial support policies in an unfavourable way for the wind energy. This unsubsidised new era forces the wind industry to re-visit its expenditure components and to make improvements in operating strategies in order to minimise operational and maintenance (O&M) costs. The classical maintenance strategies focus on a year advanced programming of calendar based maintenance visits and corrective interventions. In this classical approach the maintenance programming flexibility is quite limited, since this kind of programming ignores dynamic environment of the wind farm and real time data-driven indicators. Then, downtimes, and corresponding revenue losses, due to wind turbine inaccessibility occur because wind turbines are exposed to challenging dynamic environmental conditions and located in remote areas. Low accessibility is one of the predominant problems, and remote control not always solves the problems. The cost optimal O&M strategies for the wind energy must consider condition based maintenance and a timely programming of wind turbine visit.Thus, an elaborate and flexible approach, which is capable of considering condition and accessibility of wind turbines using meteorological measurements and operational records is highly needed for the wind farm O&M management. The core objective of this thesis is the investigation of decision-making processes in wind farm management, and the generation of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) for O&M of wind farms. In order to develop practical and feasible DSSs, the research is conducted prioritising data-driven approaches. There still exist various inefficiently used data sources in an operational wind farm, therefore there is a room for an improvement to use efficiently available data. Generally, in a wind farm, two types of condition monitoring data can be collected as online inspection and offline inspection data. Online inspection data can be obtained from both condition monitoring system (CMS) and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA). CMS data require an additional investment in the turbines while, on the contrary, SCADA data are already available in the turbines. As a third source, offline inspection data consist of the records of all O&M visits to the wind farm, which are available but poorly recorded. In this study, the answer for the question of how to change a classical O&M strategy to an enhanced one using only the existing data sources without the need for an additional investment is searched.Firstly, analysis of key factors influencing in wind farm maintenance decisions is performed. In this regard, exploratory data analysis was considered to understand the monthly seasonality and the dependencies of day ahead hourly electricity market price, which is one of the decisive parameters for the wind farm revenue. Then, the connection between wind turbine failures, atmospheric variables and downtime is studied in order to provide additional information to a maintenance team and a maintenance planner for the intervention day. For the first part, well-structured and analysed electricity market price, electricity generation and demand data are needed. Therefore, the existing databases are reviewed for the case countries and a relevant analysis period is chosen. The electricity market data can be easily interpreted as time series data. To exhibit the characteristics of different electricity markets, various time series comparison tools are combined as an analysis guideline. By using this guideline, the drivers of the electricity market price are summarised for each case country. For the second part, available atmospheric and failure data for the relevant wind turbine components are gathered and combined. Then, convenient approaches among unsupervised learning models are selected. By combining the available tools and considering the needed information level for different purposes, the failure rules of prior to failure occurrence per month, in hours and in ten minutes increments are mined.Then, what-if analysis for revenue tracking of maintenance decisions is performed in order to generate a DSS for the evaluation of the major maintenance decisions taken in wind farms. To this purpose, the impact of country dynamics and subsidy frameworks considering the electricity market conditions are modelled. The impact of the intervention timing is analysed and the sensitivity of financial losses to environmental causes of underperformance are estimated.Finally, generation of decision support tool for planning of a maintenance day is studied to provide a useful maintenance DSS for in situ applications. The safe working rules considering the wind speed constraints for the accessibility to the wind turbine are reviewed taking into account the turbine manufacturer's O&M guidelines. The characteristics of the maintenance visits are summarised. Wind turbine accessibility trials using numerical weather prediction forecasting techniques for wind speed variable and synthetic forecasts for wind speed and wind gust variables are presented. An intervention decision pool considering safe working rules is generated, containing a list of plans capable of providing the optimal sequence of various tasks and ranked for revenue prioritised timing.This work has been part of the “Advanced Wind Energy Systems Operation and Maintenance Expertise" project, a European consortium with companies, universities and research centres from the wind energy sector. Parts of this work were developed in collaboration with other fellows in the project.<br /

Reliability Models and Failure Detection Algorithms for Wind Turbines

Durante las pasadas décadas, la industria eólica ha sufrido un crecimiento muysignificativo en Europa llevando a la generación eólica al puesto más relevanteen cuanto a producción energética mediante fuentes renovables. Sin embargo, siconsideramos los aspectos económicos, el sector eólico todavía no ha alcanzadoel nivel competitivo necesario para batir a los sistemas de generación de energíaconvencionales.Los costes principales en la explotación de parques eólicos se asignan a lasactividades relacionadas con la Operación y Mantenimiento (O&M). Esto se debeal hecho de que, en la actualidad, la Operación y Mantenimiento está basadaprincipalmente en acciones correctivas o preventivas. Por tanto, el uso de técnicaspredictivas podría reducir de forma significativa los costes relacionados con lasactividades de mantenimiento mejorando así los beneficios globales de la explotaciónde los parques eólicos.Aunque los beneficios del mantenimiento predictivo se consideran cada díamás importantes, existen todavía la necesidad de investigar y explorar dichastécnicas. Modelos de fiabilidad avanzados y algoritmos de predicción de fallospueden facilitar a los operadores la detección anticipada de fallos de componentesen los aerogeneradores y, en base a ello, adaptar sus estrategias de mantenimiento.Hasta la fecha, los modelos de fiabilidad de turbinas eólicas se basan, casiexclusivamente, en la edad de la turbina. Esto es así porque fueron desarrolladosoriginalmente para máquinas que trabajan en entornos ‘amigables’, por ejemplo, enel interior de naves industriales. Los aerogeneradores, al contrario, están expuestosa condiciones ambientales altamente variables y, por tanto, los modelos clásicosde fiabilidad no reflejan la realidad con suficiente precisión. Es necesario, portanto, desarrollar nuevos modelos de fiabilidad que sean capaces de reproducir el comportamiento de los fallos de las turbinas eólicas y sus componentes, teniendoen cuenta las condiciones meteorológicas y operacionales en su emplazamiento.La predicción de fallos se realiza habitualmente utilizando datos que se obtienendel sistema de Supervisión Control y Adquisición de Datos (SCADA) o de Sistemasde Monitorización de Condición (CMS). Cabe destacar que en turbinas eólicasmodernas conviven ambos tipos de sistemas y la fusión de ambas fuentes de datospuede mejorar significativamente la detección de fallos. Esta tesis pretende mejorarlas prácticas actuales de Operación y Mantenimiento mediante: (1) el desarrollo demodelos avanzados de fiabilidad y detección de fallos basados en datos que incluyanlas condiciones ambientales y operacionales existentes en los parques eólicos y (2)la aplicación de nuevos algoritmos de detección de fallos que usen las condicionesambientales y operacionales del emplazamiento, así como datos procedentes tantode sistemas SCADA como CMS. Estos dos objetivos se han dividido en cuatrotareas.En la primera tarea se ha realizado un análisis exhaustivo tanto de los fallosproducidos en un amplio conjunto de aerogeneradores (amplio en número de turbinasy en longitud de los registros) como de sus tiempos de parada asociados. De estaforma, se han visualizado los componentes que más fallan en función de la tecnologíadel aerogenerador, así como sus modos de fallo. Esta información es vital para eldesarrollo posterior de modelos de fiabilidad y mantenimiento.En segundo lugar, se han investigado las condiciones meteorológicas previasa sucesos con fallos de los principales componentes de los aerogeneradores. Seha desarrollado un entorno de aprendizaje basado en datos utilizando técnicas deagrupamiento ‘k-means clustering’ y reglas de asociación ‘a priori’. Este entorno escapaz de manejar grandes cantidades de datos proporcionando resultados útiles yfácilmente visualizables. Adicionalmente, se han aplicado algoritmos de detecciónde anomalías y patrones para encontrar cambios abruptos y patrones recurrentesen la serie temporal de la velocidad del viento en momentos previos a los fallosde los componentes principales de los aerogeneradores. En la tercera tarea, sepropone un nuevo modelo de fiabilidad que incorpora directamente las condicionesmeteorológicas registradas durante los dos meses previos al fallo. El modelo usados procesos estadísticos separados, uno genera los sucesos de fallos, así comoceros ocasionales mientras que el otro genera los ceros estructurales necesarios paralos algoritmos de cálculo. Los posibles efectos no observados (heterogeneidad) en el parque eólico se tienen en cuenta de forma adicional. Para evitar problemas de‘over-fitting’ y multicolinearidades, se utilizan sofisticadas técnicas de regularización.Finalmente, la capacidad del modelo se verifica usando datos históricos de fallosy lecturas meteorológicas obtenidas en los mástiles meteorológicos de los parqueseólicos.En la última tarea se han desarrollado algoritmos de predicción basados encondiciones meteorológicas y en datos operacionales y de vibraciones. Se ha‘entrenado’ una red de Bayes, para predecir los fallos de componentes en unparque eólico, basada fundamentalmente en las condiciones meteorológicas delemplazamiento. Posteriormente, se introduce una metodología para fusionar datosde vibraciones obtenidos del CMS con datos obtenidos del sistema SCADA, conel objetivo de analizar las relaciones entre ambas fuentes. Estos datos se hanutilizado para la predicción de fallos en el eje principal utilizando varios algoritmosde inteligencia artificial, ‘random forests’, ‘gradient boosting machines’, modelosgeneralizados lineales y redes neuronales artificiales. Además, se ha desarrolladouna herramienta para la evaluación on-line de los datos de vibraciones (CMS)denominada DAVE (‘Distance Based Automated Vibration Evaluation’).Los resultados de esta tesis demuestran que el comportamiento de los fallos delos componentes de aerogeneradores está altamente influenciado por las condicionesmeteorológicas del emplazamiento. El entorno de aprendizaje basado en datos escapaz de identificar las condiciones generales y temporales específicas previas alos fallos de componentes. Además, se ha demostrado que, con los modelos defiabilidad y algoritmos de detección propuestos, la Operación y Mantenimiento delas turbinas eólicas puede mejorarse significativamente. Estos modelos de fiabilidady de detección de fallos son los primeros que proporcionan una representaciónrealística y específica del emplazamiento, al considerar combinaciones complejasde las condiciones ambientales, así como indicadores operacionales y de estadode operación obtenidos a partir de la fusión de datos de vibraciones CMS y datosdel SCADA. Por tanto, este trabajo proporciona entornos prácticos, modelos yalgoritmos que se podrán aplicar en el campo del mantenimiento predictivo deturbinas eólicas.<br /

Data-driven learning framework for associating weather conditions and wind turbine failures

The need for cost effective operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies in wind farms has risen significantly with the growing wind energy sector. In order to decrease costs, current practice in wind farm O&M is switching from corrective and preventive strategies to rather predictive ones. Anticipating wind turbine (WT) failures requires sophisticated models to understand the complex WT component degradation processes and to facilitate maintenance decision making. Environmental conditions and their impact on WT reliability play a significant role in these processes and need to be investigated profoundly. This paper is presenting a framework to assess and correlate weather conditions and their effects on WT component failures. Two approaches, using (a) supervised and (b) unsupervised data mining techniques are applied to pre-process the weather and failure data. An apriori rule mining algorithm is employed subsequently, in order to obtain logical interconnections between the failure occurrences and the environmental data, for both approaches. The framework is tested using a large historical failure database of modern wind turbines. The results show the relation between environmental parameters such as relative humidity, ambient temperature, wind speed and the failures of five major WT components: gearbox, generator, frequency converter, pitch and yaw system. Additionally, the performance of each technique, associating weather conditions and WT component failures, is assessed

Wavelet packet decomposition for IEC compliant assessment of harmonics under stationary and fluctuating conditions

This paper presents the validation and characterization of a wavelet based decomposition method for the assessment of harmonic distortion in power systems, under stationary and non-stationary conditions. It uses Wavelet Packet Decomposition with Butterworth Infinite Impulse Response filters and a decomposition structure, which allows the measurement of both odd and even harmonics, up to the 63rd order, fully compliant with the requirements of the IEC 61000-4-7 standard. The method is shown to fulfil the IEC accuracy requirements for stationary harmonics, obtaining the same accuracy even under fluctuating conditions. Then, it is validated using simulated signals with real harmonic content. The proposed method is proven to be fully equivalent to Fourier analysis under stationary conditions, being often more accurate. Under non-stationary conditions, instead, it provides significantly higher accuracy, while the IEC strategy produces large errors. Lastly, the method is tested with real current and voltage signals, measured in conditions of high harmonic distortion. The proposed strategy provides a method with superior performance for fluctuating harmonics, but at the same time IEC compliant under stationary conditions

A high-frequency digitiser system for real-time analysis of DC grids with DC and AC power quality triggering

The presence of DC grids in distribution networks is being increased nowadays and is expected to be quite relevant in a near future, due to several advantages compared to traditional AC systems. Regardless of this, Power Quality in DC grids (DC PQ) (voltage variations, transients, spectral components, etc.) still remains not properly considered and there is a lack of reference normative documents such as standards, application guides or technical reports for their application. In this context, it is necessary to obtain more experience on real measurements, in order to define appropriate DC PQ parameters and limits that assess a reliable operation of the whole power network and eventually lead to establishing a reference frame acceptable for both generation sources and final users. In this work, a novel high frequency (up to 4 MS/s) digitiser system is presented for the study of DC PQ events. The system is designed to acquire waveforms with triggers fired by events in both DC and AC signals. The captured signals are pre-processed in real-time to be able to recover pre-trigger information stored in memory. The system was installed in a real DC micro-grid and configured to take data in an unattended way. Additionally, the results of the first months of data acquisition are presented

Machine Learning models for the estimation of the production of large utility-scale photovoltaic plants

Photovoltaic (PV) energy development has increased in the last years mainly based on large utility-scale plants. These plants are characterised by a huge number of panels connected to high-power inverters occupying a large land area. An accurate estimation of the power production of the PV plants is needed for failure detection, identifying production deviations, and the integration of the plants into the power grid. Various studies have used Machine Learning estimation techniques developed on very small PV plants. This paper deals with large utility-scale plants and uses all the available information to represent the non-uniform radiation over the whole studied solar field. Variables measured in up to four meteorological stations and distributed across the plant are used. Three PV plants with 1, 2 and 4 meteorological stations have been used to develop Machine Learning models. The hyperparameters were systematically optimised, demonstrating the improvements by comparing with a simple model based on Multiple Linear Regression. The best results were obtained with the Random Forest technique for the three PV plants, providing a RMS error value ranging from 1.9% to 5.4%. The final models were compared with those found in the literature for tiny PV plants showing in general much better performance