Mathematical modelling of earlier stages of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Ghana

In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the rest of the world, the impact on the local health service is still significant. Compartmental models are a useful framework for investigating transmission of diseases in societies. To understand how the infection will spread and how to limit the outbreak. We have developed a modified SEIR compartmental model with nine compartments (CoVCom9) to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ghana. We have carried out a detailed mathematical analysis of the CoVCom9, including the derivation of the basic reproduction number, . In particular, we have shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when  via a candidate Lyapunov function. Using the SARS-CoV-2 reported data for confirmed-positive cases and deaths from March 13 to August 10, 2020, we have parametrised the CoVCom9 model. The results of this fit show good agreement with data. We used Latin hypercube sampling-rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of  since the results derived are significant in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that over this five month period, the basic reproduction number is given by , with the 95% confidence interval being , and the mean value being . Of the 32 parameters in the model, we find that just six have a significant influence on , these include the rate of testing, where an increasing testing rate contributes to the reduction of 

Molecular confirmation of Lassa fever imported into Ghana

Background: Recent reports have shown an expansion of Lassa virus from the area where it was first isolated in Nigeria to other areas of West Africa. Two Ghanaian soldiers on a United Nations peacekeeping mission in Liberia were taken ill with viral haemorrhagic fever syndrome following the death of a sick colleague and were referred to a military hospital in Accra, Ghana, in May 2013. Blood samples from the soldiers and five asymptomatic close contacts were subjected to laboratory investigations. Objective: We report the results of these investigations to highlight the importance of molecular diagnostic applications and the need for heightened awareness about Lassa fever in West Africa. Methods: We used molecular assays on sera from the two patients to identify the causativeorganism. Upon detection of positive signals for Lassa virus ribonucleic material by two differentpolymerase chain reaction assays, sequencing and phylogenetic analyses were performed. Results: The presence of Lassa virus in the soldiers’ blood samples was shown by L-gene segment homology to be the Macenta and las803792 strains previously isolated in Liberia, with close relationships then confirmed by phylogenetic tree construction. The five asymptomatic close contacts were negative for Lassa virus. Conclusions: The Lassa virus strains identified in the two Ghanaian soldiers had molecular epidemiological links to strains from Liberia. Lassa virus was probably responsible for the outbreak of viral haemorrhagic fever in the military camp. These data confirm Lassa fever endemicity in West Africa

Detection of Dengue Virus among Children with Suspected Malaria, Accra, Ghana

We report new molecular evidence of locally acquired dengue virus infections in Ghana. We detected dengue viral RNA among children with suspected malaria by using a multipathogen real-time PCR. Subsequent sequence analysis revealed a close relationship with dengue virus serotype 2, which was implicated in a 2016 outbreak in Burkina Faso