Modelling contingent valuation iterated elicitation data with an MCMC approach

The valuation of non-market goods involves iterated elicitation questions which obtain more information from the sample respondents and lead to more efficient welfare estimates. In this paper we consider the improvements which could be obtained by utilising a Bayesian MCMC approach to model this type of data. A fully informative prior resulting from previous stages is compared with a flat non-informative prior utilising both simulated and empirical data. These priors are combined with data in each stage to form the posteriors which are simulated with Gibbs sampling algorithms. The models are applied to an elicitation tree involving two successive dichotomous choice questions followed by an open-ended question. Monte Carlo simulations show that taking into account the information process implicit in successive elicitation improves the performance of the results at each stage and increases efficiency. Thus, the model allows the researcher to consider the evolving process along the elicitation tree, while increasing useful information obtained from the individual.Bayesian methods, Contingent valuation, Gibbs sampling, Iterated Elicitation, National Parks.

Economic Evaluation of Destination Image

El presente trabajo desarrolla una nueva metodología de valoración de la imagen de destinos que incorpora dos principales ventajas sobre los métodos empleados hasta ahora: (1) permite disociar la imagen de un lugar geográfico (destino), de la imagen del usuario con la experiencia vacacional objetiva en dicho destino; diferenciando así entre la medida de la dimensión de imagen percibida, la medida de la experiencia percibida, y finalmente, la medida de la experiencia percibida influida por la dimensión de la imagen percibida y (2) permite valorar económicamente la imagen de un destino turístico. Los resultados tienen implicaciones para la evaluación de los recursos económicos que los destinos invierten con la finalidad de ser más competitivos en el mercado, y ayudan a mejorar la planificación de los esfuerzos del marketing que se realizarán para mejorar la imagen de los destinos.This work develops a new methodology for economic evaluation of destination image, adding two main advantages over the traditional methods used before: (1) it allows to differentiate the geographical destination image from the subjective experience holydays of the tourist in that destination. Thus, it facilitates the differentiation between the destination perceived image measure, the experience perceived image and finally, the experience perceived image influenced by the destination perceived image; and (2) it allows the economic evaluation of the destination image and its attributes. The results show academic and practical implications for the economic evaluation of the destination investment to increase their competitiveness in the market, and facilitate to improve marketing planning to increase the destination image

Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research

This final response to the two climate change denial papers by Shani and Arad further highlights the inaccuracies, misinformation and errors in their commentaries. The obfuscation of scientific research and the consensus on anthropogenic climate change may have significant long-term negative consequences for better understanding the implications of climate change and climate policy for tourism and create confusion and delay in developing and implementing tourism sector responses

Modelización de la elicitación iterativa en valoración contingente.: Aplicación a la expensión de una red de caminos reales

La estimación de los beneficios de los bienes públicos requiere de métodos específicos para sortear los problemas en la revelación correcta de las preferencias sociales. Los métodos directos basados en cuestionarios, como la valoración contingente, utilizan como elemento esencial algún método de elicitación para obtener el valor individual. Los métodos iterativos o secuenciales tienen la ventaja de que emulan la forma en la que las personas piensan acerca del valor de los bienes. En este trabajo se propone un método econométrico para recoger el cambio de comportamiento de los sujetos con los métodos iterativos. El método utiliza las técnicas del muestreo de Gibbs y del aumento de datos para simular la distribución a posteriori obtenida al final del proceso iterativo. Esta distribución recoge la actualización del valor individual a medida que el sujeto enfrenta nuevos precios. La metodología se aplica a la estimación de los beneficios de una expansión de la red de caminos reales de Gran Canaria, que constituye un bien patrimonial histórico cuya exclusión no es posible desde el punto de vista social. Los resultados muestran que la modelización del proceso secuencial mejora sustancialmente las predicciones del modelo econométrico, obteniendo estimaciones más eficientes y menos sesgadas

Do emotions matter? Coherent preferences under anchoring and emotional effects

Emotions can affect individuals' preferences and economic behavior. In this paper we consider the relationship between emotions and anchoring effects in non-market valuation. The findings show that although anchoring effects are relevant, elicited preferences are coherent, in the sense that they are sensitive to changes in the dimension of the good. Additionally, it is found that the relationship between emotional intensity and the level of anchoring is U-shaped, with anchoring declining as emotional intensity rises until a minimum is reached. Thus, preferences can be substantially less affected by anchoring effects if emotional intensity deviates from extreme values. Finally, it is found that the degree of sensitivity to scope is influenced by the level of emotional load involve in the valuation task.Emotions Anchoring Non-market valuation Decision making D0 Q51 Q26

Understanding the use of non-compensatory decision rules in discrete choice experiments: The role of emotions

When making choices, individuals can follow alternative strategies or decision rules to the traditional compensatory utility maximization, raising doubts about to what extent these choices can be used to elicit preferences. In this paper we use a verbal protocol approach to investigate the use of alternative decision rules in discrete choice experiments. The main interest is to identify some of the determinants of the context that play a role in the choice of a specific strategy or decision rule. Our results show that emotions can partially explain this choice among compensatory and simpler non-compensatory decision rules. We also find that the number of years of education - and not personal income - are positively correlated with the probability of choosing a non-compensatory decision rules. Finally, by manipulating alternative specific emotions (sadness, disgust) we find that emotions of the same valence can have opposing causal effects on the decision rule choice.Decision rules Emotions Stated preference methods Non-market valuation

Actualización de las preferencias en los procesos iterativos de valoración contingente

La valoración de bienes de no-mercado implica la realización de mecanismos de elicitación iterativos, lo que permiteob tener más información acerca de las preferencias de los encuestados y conlleva a la obtención de estimadores máseficientes de las mediciones del cambio en el bienestar. En este trabajo se estudian las mejoras potenciales que pueden ser alcanzadas mediante la modelización de este tipo de datos a través de simulaciones de Monte Carlo vía Cadenasde Markov (MCMC). Para ello se comparan modelos que incluyen distribuciones a priori completamente informativas ,considerando la posible existencia de efectos anclajes resultantes de las etapas anteriores, y con distribuciones a priori no informativas, utilizando datos reales y simulados. Estas distribuciones a priori son combinadas con los datos en cada etapa del proceso para conformar las distribuciones a posteriori, las cuales son simuladas mediante el muestreo de Gibbs. Los modelos se aplican en un proceso de valoración del parque natural del Teide(Islas Canarias), y consta de dos preguntas dicotómicas sucesivas seguidas de una pregunta abierta. Los resultados muestran cómo al considerar el proceso de actualización de las preferencias implícito en el proceso iterativo se mejoran los ajustes de los modelos en cada etapa y se incrementa la eficiencia

Context-dependent evaluation of climate change policies: competing policies, knowledge and emotions

<p>Climate change policies can compete with policies on other social and environmental problems for limited economic resources. This paper investigates the potential influence of alternative policies on citizens’ preferences for climate change policies. A contingent valuation study was implemented to estimate the impact of observable and unobservable contextual effects of competing polices on climate change valuation. Individuals are also investigated about their endowment of knowledge and emotional reactions to such problems. The results show that citizens’ valuation of climate change policies crucially depends on the context-dependent competing policies. The valuation rises as the number of competing policies increases. This increment becomes economically significant when the competing policies are related to specific problems such as forest fires and development. In addition, the valuation also rises with the amount of knowledge endowed by the individual about the climate change problem, and with the experience of negative emotions such as fear and sadness.</p

Towel reuse in hotels : Importance of normative appeal designs

Laundry is a major factor in hotel fresh water use. Pro-environmental appeals to encourage tourists to reuse towels and bed linen have received much attention in the literature, though findings have remained inconclusive. This paper presents the results of a large field experiment with 21,000 observations in seven hotels catering to the sun, sand & sea leisure tourism market in Gran Canaria, Spain. Findings suggest that comprehensive message designs can increase towel reuse by 6.8% and bed linen reuse by 1.2%, compared to existing in-room messages. Results also show that nationality, age, length of stay, repeat visits, temperature, and hotel standard influence participation levels. The field experiment confirms that normative appeals can trigger significant behavioural change. Evidence suggests, however, that social norm generation may be a more promising avenue to changing behaviour than norm adherence

Amelioration of Pet Overpopulation and Abandonment Using Control of Breeding and Sale, and Compulsory Owner Liability Insurance

Overpopulation and abandonment of pets are long-standing and burgeoning concerns that involve uncontrolled breeding and selling, illegal trafficking, overpopulation, and pet safety and well-being issues. Abandonment of pets creates numerous negative externalities and multimillion-dollar costs, in addition to severe consequences and problems concerning animal welfare (e.g., starvation, untreated disease, climatic extremes, uncertainty of rescue and adoption), ecological (e.g., invasive species and introduction of novel pathogens), public health and safety (e.g., risks to people from bites, zoonoses, or road hazards), and economic (e.g., financial burdens for governmental and nongovernmental organizations). These interwoven problems persist for several reasons, including the following: (1) lack of an efficient system for the prevention of abandonment and overpopulation, (2) lack of regulatory liability for pet owners, (3) lack of legal alternative to abandonment. This article proposes a novel comprehensive management system for amelioration of overpopulation and abandonment of pets aimed to tackle the current supply and demand dysfunction of the pet market and provide a legal alternative to abandonment