On Identifying and Mitigating Bias in the Estimation of the COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate

The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an active outbreak when surveillance data is the primary source of information, estimating these quantities involves compensating for competing biases in time series of deaths, cases, and recoveries. These include time- and severity- dependent reporting of cases as well as time lags in observed patient outcomes. In the context of COVID-19 CFR estimation, we survey such biases and their potential significance. Further, we analyze theoretically the effect of certain biases, like preferential reporting of fatal cases, on naive estimators of CFR. We provide a partially corrected estimator of these naive estimates that accounts for time lag and imperfect reporting of deaths and recoveries. We show that collection of randomized data by testing the contacts of infectious individuals regardless of the presence of symptoms would mitigate bias by limiting the covariance between diagnosis and death. Our analysis is supplemented by theoretical and numerical results and a simple and fast open-source codebase at https://github.com/aangelopoulos/cfr-covid-19 .Comment: Harvard Data Science Review (2020) article available at https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/y9vc2u3

ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings: tangible interactions with intangible heritage

ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings is an interactive tabletop using a tangible user interface to explore intangible cultural heritage. The table was designed for the c̓əsnaʔəm, the city before the city exhibition. This exhibition is a partnership of three major institutions in Vancouver, BC, examining the significant ancient village site on which part of Vancouver was built, as well as Musqueam culture and community today. The tabletop uses replicas of Musqueam belongings excavated from c̓əsnaʔəm, as well as contemporary objects that are a part of everyday Musqueam life to access information about the long history of salmon fishing and the continuity of related knowledge at c̓əsnaʔəm. The design of ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings highlights the tensions between fragmentation and continuity that are central to discussions of access and preservation of intangible cultural heritage in the digital age. In this paper we discuss the tangible tabletop interface as a response to the desire to reconnect fragmented collections and physical belongings from c̓əsnaʔəm with Musqueam intangible cultural knowledge

ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings: Tangible Interactions with Intangible Heritage

<p>ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings is an interactive tabletop using a tangible user interface to explore intangible cultural heritage. The table was designed for the c̓əsnaʔəm, the city before the city exhibition. This exhibition is a partnership of three major institutions in Vancouver, BC, examining the significant ancient village site on which part of Vancouver was built, as well as Musqueam culture and community today. The tabletop uses replicas of Musqueam belongings excavated from c̓əsnaʔəm, as well as contemporary objects that are a part of everyday Musqueam life to access information about the long history of salmon fishing and the continuity of related knowledge at c̓əsnaʔəm. The design of ʔeləw̓k̓ʷ – Belongings highlights the tensions between fragmentation and continuity that are central to discussions of access and preservation of intangible cultural heritage in the digital age. In this paper we discuss the tangible tabletop interface as a response to the desire to reconnect fragmented collections and physical belongings from c̓əsnaʔəm with Musqueam intangible cultural knowledge.</p

Gr1+IL-4-producing innate cells are induced in response to Th2 stimuli and suppress Th1-dependent antibody responses

Alum is used as a vaccine adjuvant and induces T&lt;sub&gt;h&lt;/sub&gt;2 responses and T&lt;sub&gt;h&lt;/sub&gt;2-driven antibody isotype production against co-injected antigens. Alum also promotes the appearance in the spleen of Gr1+IL-4+ innate cells that, via IL-4 production, induce MHC II-mediated signaling in B cells. To investigate whether these Gr1+ cells accumulate in the spleen in response to other T&lt;sub&gt;h&lt;/sub&gt;2-inducing stimuli and to understand some of their functions, the effects of injection of alum and eggs from the helminth, Schistosoma mansoni, were compared. Like alum, schistosome eggs induced the appearance of Gr1+IL-4+ cells in spleen and promoted MHC II-mediated signaling in B cells. Unlike alum, however, schistosome eggs did not promote CD4 T cell responses against co-injected antigens, suggesting that the effects of alum or schistosome eggs on splenic B cells cannot by themselves explain the T cell adjuvant properties of alum. Accordingly, depletion of IL-4 or Gr1+ cells in alum-injected mice had no effect on the ability of alum to improve expansion of primary CD4 T cells. However, Gr1+ cells and IL-4 played some role in the effects of alum, since depletion of either resulted in antibody responses to antigen that included not only the normal T&lt;sub&gt;h&lt;/sub&gt;2-driven isotypes, like IgG1, but also a T&lt;sub&gt;h&lt;/sub&gt;1-driven isotype, IgG2c. These data suggest that alum affects the immune response in at least two ways: one, independent of Gr1+ cells and IL-4, that promotes CD4 T cell proliferation and another, via Gr1+IL-4+ cells, that participates in the polarization of the response

ERβ-mediated induction of cystatins results in suppression of TGFβ signaling and inhibition of triple-negative breast cancer metastasis.

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) accounts for a disproportionately high number of deaths due to a lack of targeted therapies and an increased likelihood of distant recurrence. Estrogen receptor beta (ERβ), a well-characterized tumor suppressor, is expressed in 30% of TNBCs, and its expression is associated with improved patient outcomes. We demonstrate that therapeutic activation of ERβ elicits potent anticancer effects in TNBC through the induction of a family of secreted proteins known as the cystatins, which function to inhibit canonical TGFβ signaling and suppress metastatic phenotypes both in vitro and in vivo. These data reveal the involvement of cystatins in suppressing breast cancer progression and highlight the value of ERβ-targeted therapies for the treatment of TNBC patients

Applications of Direct Injection Soft Chemical Ionisation-Mass Spectrometry for the Detection of Pre-blast Smokeless Powder Organic Additives

Analysis of smokeless powders is of interest from forensics and security perspectives. This article reports the detection of smokeless powder organic additives (in their pre-detonation condition), namely the stabiliser diphenylamine and its derivatives 2-nitrodiphenylamine and 4-nitrodiphenylamine, and the additives (used both as stabilisers and plasticisers) methyl centralite and ethyl centralite, by means of swab sampling followed by thermal desorption and direct injection soft chemical ionisation-mass spectrometry. Investigations on the product ions resulting from the reactions of the reagent ions H3O+ and O2+ with additives as a function of reduced electric field are reported. The method was comprehensively evaluated in terms of linearity, sensitivity and precision. For H3O+, the limits of detection (LoD) are in the range of 41-88 pg of additive, for which the accuracy varied between 1.5 and 3.2%, precision varied between 3.7 and 7.3% and linearity showed R20.9991. For O2+, LoD are in the range of 72 to 1.4 ng, with an accuracy of between 2.8 and 4.9% and a precision between 4.5 and 8.6% and R20.9914. The validated methodology was applied to the analysis of commercial pre-blast gun powders from different manufacturers.(VLID)4826148Accepted versio

The Dementia Care Study (D-Care): Recruitment Strategies and Demographic Characteristics of Participants in a Pragmatic Randomized Trial of Dementia Care

INTRODUCTION: Pragmatic research studies that include diverse dyads of persons living with dementia (PLWD) and their family caregivers are rare. METHODS: Community-dwelling dyads were recruited for a pragmatic clinical trial evaluating three approaches to dementia care. Four clinical trial sites used shared and site-specific recruitment strategies to enroll health system patients. RESULTS: Electronic health record (EHR) queries of patients with a diagnosis of dementia and engagement of their clinicians were the main recruitment strategies. A total of 2176 dyads were enrolled, with 80% recruited after the onset of the pandemic. PLWD had a mean age of 80.6 years (SD 8.5), 58.4% were women, and 8.8% were Hispanic/Latino, and 11.9% were Black/African American. Caregivers were mostly children of the PLWD (46.5%) or spouses/partners (45.2%), 75.8% were women, 9.4% were Hispanic/Latino, and 11.6% were Black/African American. DISCUSSION: Health systems can successfully enroll diverse dyads in a pragmatic clinical trial

Reliability of Small Molecule Organic Photovoltaics with Electron‐Filtering Compound Buffer Layers

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134933/1/aenm201601094.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134933/2/aenm201601094_am.pd

Galaxy Zoo: A correlation between coherence of galaxy spin chirality and star formation efficiency

We report on the finding of a correlation between galaxies' past star formation activity and the degree to which neighbouring galaxies rotation axes are aligned. This is obtained by cross-correlating star formation histories, derived with MOPED, and spin direction (chirality), as determined by the Galaxy Zoo project, for a sample of SDSS galaxies. Our findings suggest that spiral galaxies which formed the majority of their stars early (z > 2) tend to display coherent rotation over scales of ~10 Mpc/h. The correlation is weaker for galaxies with significant recent star formation. We find evidence for this alignment at more than the 5-sigma level, but no correlation with other galaxy stellar properties. This finding can be explained within the context of hierarchical tidal-torque theory if the SDSS galaxies harboring the majority of the old stellar population where formed in the past, in the same filament and at about the same time. Galaxies with significant recent star formation instead are in the field, thus influenced by the general tidal field that will align them in random directions or had a recent merger which would promote star formation, but deviate the spin direction.Comment: matches published version in MNRAS; only minor change