Beyond forcing scenarios: predicting climate change through response operators in a coupled general circulation model

Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict climate change for a variety of climatic variables of interest. We perform our study on a fully coupled model - MPI-ESM v.1.2 - and for the first time we prove the effectiveness of response theory in predicting future climate response to CO2 increase on a vast range of temporal scales, from inter-annual to centennial, and for very diverse climatic quantities. We investigate within a unified perspective the transient climate response and the equilibrium climate sensitivity and assess the role of fast and slow processes. The prediction of the ocean heat uptake highlights the very slow relaxation to a newly established steady state. The change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is accurately predicted. The AMOC strength is initially reduced and then undergoes a slow and only partial recovery. The ACC strength initially increases as a result of changes in the wind stress, then undergoes a slowdown, followed by a recovery leading to a overshoot with respect to the initial value. Finally, we are able to predict accurately the temperature change in the Northern Atlantic

Influence of an outpatient multidisciplinary pain management program on the health-related quality of life and the physical fitness of chronic pain patients

BACKGROUND: Approximately 10 to 20 percent of the population is suffering from chronic pain. Since this represents a major contribution to the costs of the health care system, more efficient measures and interventions to treat these patients are sought. RESULTS: The development of general health and physical activity of patients with chronic pain was assessed in an interdisciplinary outpatient pain management program (IOPP). 36 patients with an average age of 48 years were included in the IOPP. Subjective assessment of well-being was performed at five time points (baseline, post intervention and 3, 6, and 12 months thereafter) by using standardized questionnaires. The study focused on the quality of life survey Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36, which is a validated instrument with established reliability and sensitivity. In addition, the patients participated in physical assessment testing strength, power, endurance, and mobility. Prior to therapy a substantial impairment was found on different levels. Marked improvements in the psychological parameters were obtained by the end of the program. No success was achieved with regard to the physical assessments. CONCLUSION: Although many different studies have evaluated similar programs, only few of them have attained positive results such as improvements of general quality of life or of physical strength. Often no difference from the control group could be detected only some months after the intervention. In the present study no significant persistent improvement of well-being occurred. Possible reasons are either wrong instruments, wrong selection of patients or wrong interventions

Ecological networks: Pursuing the shortest path, however narrow and crooked

International audienceRepresenting data as networks cuts across all sub-disciplines in ecology and evolutionary biology. Besides providing a compact representation of the interconnections between agents, network analysis allows the identification of especially important nodes, according to various metrics that often rely on the calculation of the shortest paths connecting any two nodes. While the interpretation of a shortest paths is straightforward in binary, unweighted networks, whenever weights are reported, the calculation could yield unexpected results. We analyzed 129 studies of ecological networks published in the last decade that use shortest paths, and discovered a methodological inaccuracy related to the edge weights used to calculate shortest paths (and related centrality measures), particularly in interaction networks. Specifically, 49% of the studies do not report sufficient information on the calculation to allow their replication, and 61% of the studies on weighted networks may contain errors in how shortest paths are calculated. Using toy models and empirical ecological data, we show how to transform the data prior to calculation and illustrate the pitfalls that need to be avoided. We conclude by proposing a five-point checklist to foster best-practices in the calculation and reporting of centrality measures in ecology and evolution studies. The last two decades have witnessed an exponential increase in the use of graph analysis in ecological and conservation studies (see refs. 1,2 for recent introductions to network theory in ecology and evolution). Networks (graphs) represent agents as nodes linked by edges representing pairwise relationships. For instance, a food web can be represented as a network of species (nodes) and their feeding relationships (edges) 3. Similarly, the spatial dynamics of a metapopulation can be analyzed by connecting the patches of suitable habitat (nodes) with edges measuring dispersal between patches 4. Data might either simply report the presence/absence of an edge (binary, unweighted networks), or provide a strength for each edge (weighted networks). In turn, these weights can represent a variety of ecologically-relevant quantities, depending on the system being described. For instance, edge weights can quantify interaction frequency (e.g., visitation networks 5), interaction strength (e.g., per-capita effect of one species on the growth rate of another 3), carbon-flow between trophic levels 6 , genetic similarity 7 , niche overlap (e.g., number of shared resources between two species 8), affinity 9 , dispersal probabilities (e.g., the rate at which individuals of a population move between patches 10), cost of dispersal between patches (e.g., resistance 11), etc. Despite such large variety of ecological network representations, a common task is the identification of nodes of high importance, such as keystone species in a food web, patches acting as stepping stones in a dispersal network , or genes with pleiotropic effects. The identification of important nodes is typically accomplished through centrality measures 5,12. Many centrality measures has been proposed, each probing complementary aspects of node-to-node relationships 13. For instance, Closeness centrality 14,15 highlights nodes that are "near" to all othe

Measurement and interpretation of same-sign W boson pair production in association with two jets in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents the measurement of fducial and diferential cross sections for both the inclusive and electroweak production of a same-sign W-boson pair in association with two jets (W±W±jj) using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The analysis is performed by selecting two same-charge leptons, electron or muon, and at least two jets with large invariant mass and a large rapidity diference. The measured fducial cross sections for electroweak and inclusive W±W±jj production are 2.92 ± 0.22 (stat.) ± 0.19 (syst.)fb and 3.38±0.22 (stat.)±0.19 (syst.)fb, respectively, in agreement with Standard Model predictions. The measurements are used to constrain anomalous quartic gauge couplings by extracting 95% confdence level intervals on dimension-8 operators. A search for doubly charged Higgs bosons H±± that are produced in vector-boson fusion processes and decay into a same-sign W boson pair is performed. The largest deviation from the Standard Model occurs for an H±± mass near 450 GeV, with a global signifcance of 2.5 standard deviations

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into different pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, , and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and ττ) are included in this kind of combination for the first time. A simplified model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confidence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion

Combined measurement of the Higgs boson mass from the H → γγ and H → ZZ∗ → 4ℓ decay channels with the ATLAS detector using √s = 7, 8, and 13 TeV pp collision data

A measurement of the mass of the Higgs boson combining the H → Z Z ∗ → 4 ℓ and H → γ γ decay channels is presented. The result is based on 140     fb − 1 of proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector during LHC run 2 at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV combined with the run 1 ATLAS mass measurement, performed at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV, yielding a Higgs boson mass of 125.11 ± 0.09 ( stat ) ± 0.06 ( syst ) = 125.11 ± 0.11     GeV . This corresponds to a 0.09% precision achieved on this fundamental parameter of the Standard Model of particle physics

Health related quality of life and comorbidity. A descriptive analysis comparing EQ-5D dimensions of patients in the German disease management program for type 2 diabetes and patients in routine care

Background The co-occurance of multiple medical conditions has a negative impact on health related quality of life (HRQoL) for patients with type 2 diabetes. These patients demand for intensified care programs. Participation in a disease management program (DMP) for type 2 diabetes has shown to counterbalance this effect. However, it remains unclear which dimensions of HRQoL are influenced by the DMP. The aim of this study was to explore the HRQoL dimensions of patients with type 2 diabetes in the German DMP and patients in routine care (RC). Methods This analysis is part of a comparative evaluation of the German DMP for patients with type 2 diabetes. A questionnaire, including the HRQoL measure EQ-5D, was mailed to a random sample of 3,546 patients with type 2 diabetes (59.3% female). The EQ-5D dimensions were analyzed by grouping patients according to their participation in the German DMP for diabetes into DMP and RC. Results Compared to patients in DMP, patients in RC reported more problems for the dimensions mobility (P < 0.05), self care (P < 0.05) and performing usual activities (P < 0.01). Depending on the number of other conditions, remarkable differences for reporting "no problems" exist for patients with six or more comorbid conditions regarding the dimensions mobility (RC = 8.7%, DMP = 32.3%), self care (RC = 43.5%, DMP = 64.5%), usual activities (RC = 13.0%, DMP = 33.9%) and anxiety or depression (RC = 37.0%, DMP = 48.4%). Conclusion Patients participating in the German DMP for type 2 diabetes mellitus show significantly higher ratings of their HRQoL in the dimensions mobility, self care and performing usual activities compared to patients in RC. This difference can also be observed in patients with significant comorbidities. As these dimensions are known to be essential for diabetes care, the German DMP may contribute to improved care even for comorbid diabetes patients

Antimetabolite-Augmented Trabeculectomy Combined with Cataract Extraction for the Treatment of Cataract and Glaucoma

Cairns first described glaucoma filtration surgery for the treatment of glaucoma in 1968.1 The main aim of the operation, as he described it, was to improve the drainage of aqueous into the canal of Schlemm, hence the name trabeculectomy. Interestingly, the formation of a drainage bleb following the surgery was initially regarded as a failure. It was not until subsequent studies showed improved effectiveness in the presence of a drainage bleb 2 that the idea of surgically creating a diversion of aqueous to the sub-Tenon's space became the goal of the procedure. © 2009 Springer-Verlag New York