Predictive analysis across spatial scales links zoonotic malaria to deforestation.

The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions

Predictive analysis across spatial scales links zoonotic malaria to deforestation.

The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions

Effect of Once-Weekly Azithromycin vs Placebo in Children With HIV-Associated Chronic Lung Disease: The BREATHE Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance - HIV-associated chronic lung disease (HCLD) in children is associated with small airways disease, is common despite antiretroviral therapy (ART), and is associated with substantial morbidity. Azithromycin has antibiotic and immunomodulatory activity and may be effective in treating HCLD through reducing respiratory tract infections and inflammation. Objective - To determine whether prophylactic azithromycin is effective in preventing worsening of lung function and in reducing acute respiratory exacerbations (AREs) in children with HCLD taking ART. Design, Setting, and Participants - This double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (BREATHE) was conducted between 2016 and 2019, including 12 months of follow-up, at outpatient HIV clinics in 2 public sector hospitals in Malawi and Zimbabwe. Participants were randomized 1:1 to intervention or placebo, and participants and study personnel were blinded to treatment allocation. Participants included children aged 6 to 19 years with perinatally acquired HIV and HCLD (defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] z score Intervention - Once-weekly oral azithromycin with weight-based dosing, for 48 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures - All outcomes were prespecified. The primary outcome was the mean difference in FEV1 z score using intention-to-treat analysis for participants seen at end line. Secondary outcomes included AREs, all-cause hospitalizations, mortality, and weight-for-age z score. Results - A total of 347 individuals (median [interquartile range] age, 15.3 [12.7-17.7] years; 177 boys [51.0%]) were randomized, 174 to the azithromycin group and 173 to the placebo group; 162 participants in the azithromycin group and 146 placebo group participants had a primary outcome available and were analyzed. The mean difference in FEV1 z score was 0.06 (95% CI, −0.10 to 0.21; P = .48) higher in the azithromycin group than in the placebo group, a nonsignificant difference. The rate of AREs was 12.1 events per 100 person-years in the azithromycin group and 24.7 events per 100 person-years in the placebo groups (hazard ratio, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.93; P = .03). The hospitalization rate was 1.3 events per 100 person-years in the azithromycin group and 7.1 events per 100 person-years in the placebo groups, but the difference was not significant (hazard ratio, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.06 to 1.07; P = .06). Three deaths occurred, all in the placebo group. The mean weight-for-age z score was 0.03 (95% CI, −0.08 to 0.14; P = .56) higher in the azithromycin group than in the placebo group, although the difference was not significant. There were no drug-related severe adverse events. Conclusions and Relevance - In this randomized clinical trial specifically addressing childhood HCLD, once-weekly azithromycin did not improve lung function or growth but was associated with reduced AREs; the number of hospitalizations was also lower in the azithromycin group but the difference was not significant. Future research should identify patient groups who would benefit most from this intervention and optimum treatment length, to maximize benefits while reducing the risk of antimicrobial resistance

Forecasting the response of Earth's surface to future climatic and land use changes: a review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth's surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail

Fall, Recovery and Characterization of the Novato L6 Chondrite Breccia

The Novato L6 chondrite fragmental breccia fell in California on 17 October 2012, and was recovered after the Cameras for Allsky Meteor Surveillance (CAMS) project determined the meteor's trajectory between 95 and 45 km altitude. The final fragmentation at 33 1 km altitude was exceptionally well documented by digital photographs. The first sample was recovered before rain hit the area. First results from a consortium study of the meteorite's characterization, cosmogenic and radiogenic nuclides, origin and conditions of the fall are presented. Some meteorites did not retain fusion crust and show evidence of spallation. Before entry, the meteoroid was 35+/-5 cm in diameter (mass 80+/-35 kg) with a cosmic ray exposure age of 9+/-1 Ma, if it had a one-stage exposure history. However, based on the cosmogenic nuclide inventory, a two-stage exposure history is more likely, with lower shielding in the last few Ma. Thermoluminescence data suggest a collision event within the last approx. 0.1 Ma. Novato likely belonged to the class of shocked L chondrites that have a common shock age of 470 Ma, based on the U,Th-He age of 460+/-220 Ma. The measured orbits of Novato, Jesenice and Innisfree are consistent with a proposed origin of these shocked L chondrites in the Gefion asteroid family, but leave open the possibility that they came to us directly from the 5:2 mean motion resonance with Jupiter. Novato experienced a stronger compaction than did other L6 chondrites of shock-stage S4. Despite this, a freshly broken surface shows a wide range of organic compounds

First recorded eruption of Nabro volcano, Eritrea, 2011

We present a synthesis of diverse observations of the first recorded eruption of Nabro volcano, Eritrea, which began on 12 June 2011. While no monitoring of the volcano was in effect at the time, it has been possible to reconstruct the nature and evolution of the eruption through analysis of re- gional seismological and infrasound data and satellite remote sensing data, supplemented by petrological analysis of erupted products and brief field surveys. The event is notable for the comparative rarity of recorded historical eruptions in the region and of caldera systems in general, for the prodi- gious quantity of SO2 emitted into the atmosphere and the significant human impacts that ensued notwithstanding the low population density of the Afar region. It is also relevant in understanding the broader magmatic and tectonic signifi- cance of the volcanic massif of which Nabro forms a part and which strikes obliquely to the principal rifting directions in the Red Sea and northern Afar. The whole-rock compositions of Editorial responsibility: G. Giordano the erupted lavas and tephra range from trachybasaltic to trachybasaltic andesite, and crystal-hosted melt inclusions contain up to 3,000 ppm of sulphur by weight. The eruption was preceded by significant seismicity, detected by regional networks of sensors and accompanied by sustained tremor. Substantial infrasound was recorded at distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometres from the vent, beginning at the onset of the eruption and continuing for weeks. Analysis of ground deformation suggests the eruption was fed by a shal- low, NW–SE-trending dike, which is consistent with field and satellite observations of vent distributions. Despite lack of prior planning and preparedness for volcanic events in the country, rapid coordination of the emergency response miti- gated the human costs of the eruption