Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas

Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species’ (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1°C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, +1 and +4°C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (λ), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant–plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species’ range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90–100% in the +4°C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species’ present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing

Phenotypic plasticity masks range-wide genetic differentiation for vegetative but not reproductive traits in a short-lived plant

Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait-environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness

Phenotypic plasticity masks range-wide genetic differentiation for vegetative but not reproductive traits in a short-lived plant

Publication history: Accepted - 19 May 2021; Published - 5 August 2021.Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait–environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness.Eesti Teadusagentuur, Grant/Award Number: PRG609 and PUT1409; Academy of Finland; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Science Foundation Ireland, Grant/Award Number: 15/ERCD/2803; Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Grant/Award Number: IJCI-2017- 32039; European Regional Development Fun

Dataflyt og modellering av indikatorer for naturindeksen

Skarpaas, O., Töpper, J.P., Nilsen, E.B., Åström, J. 2018. Dataflyt og modellering av indikatorer for naturindeksen. NINA Rapport 1560. Norsk institutt for naturforskning. Som en del av arbeidet mot en kostnadseffektiv, robust og høyoppløselig naturindeks, er det ønskelig å se nærmere på muligheter for å kombinere data fra ulike kilder ved modellering, og legge til rette for forbedret romlig oppløsning, geografisk dekning og automatisering av naturindeksberegninger. I denne rapporten forsøker vi å ta noen skritt i retning av å svare på disse utfordringene gjennom konseptuelle rammeverk for integrert hierarkisk modellering og dataflyt-struktur, illustrert med eksempler. Vi omtaler kort noen viktige datakilder og deres egenskaper (datastruktur, format) samt muligheter for eksport/import, med fokus på datakilder som er relevante for modelleringsarbeid i dette og beslektede prosjekter (planter, fugl og miljøvariabler). På sikt vil en skriptbasert dataflyt legge til rette for automatisert oppdatering av modeller og indikatorverdier i naturindeksen når datasettene oppdateres. Vi har imidlertid ikke gått langt i retning av standardisering av dataflyt i dette prosjektet, fordi det har blitt klart i løpet av arbeidet at dataflyt til naturindeksen bør være en del av en mer langsiktig og bredere tverrinstitusjonell prosess. For å illustrere modellering som kan gi heldekkende indikatorverdier, bruker vi fjellfiol Viola biflora (tilsvarende øvelser for fugl presenteres i en egen rapport). Fjellfiol er ikke en indikatorart for naturindeksen, men fungerer som et demonstrasjonseksempel på hvordan klimadata, populasjonsdata og forekomstdata kan integreres for å predikere forekomst og populasjonssstørrelse over tid, og gi estimater av indikatorverdi og tilhørende usikkerhet med høy oppløsning. Vi beskriver den nyeste utviklingen av rutiner for import av modellerte indikatorverdier til naturindeksbasen med R-pakken ‘NIcalc’. I tillegg til det tradisjonelle formatet på indikatorverdier (middelverdi og kvartiler), vil nå også parameteriserte lognormalfordelinger, parameteriserte poissonfordelinger, diskrete fordelinger, og empiriske fordelinger aksepteres som indikatorver-dier. Dette øker mulighetene for å bruke resultater fra flere ulike typer modeller, inkludert integrerte hierarkiske modeller, direkte som input til naturindeksen. Avslutningsvis diskuterer og oppsummerer vi våre resultater og erfaringer i forhold til muligheter for økt datatilgang og automatisert oppdatering av naturindeksen. Vi konkluderer med to anbefalinger: For det første, at rammeverket for dataflyt til naturindeksen bør tas videre i et bredt tverrinstitusjonelt samarbeid mellom sentrale dataaktører og sees i sammenheng med beslektede prosesser og systemer i forvaltningen. For det andre, at modelleringsarbeidet i dette og tidligere prosjekter, som gir grunnlag for å øke oppløsning og geografisk dekning av na-turindeksindikatorer, samt å øke antall indikatorer, legges til grunn for en revurdering av naturindeksens indikatorsett for planter fram mot neste hovedoppdatering.Skarpaas, O., Töpper, J.P., Nilsen, E.B., Åström, J. 2018. Data flow and modelling of indicators for the nature index. NINA Report 1560. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research. As part of the process towards a cost-efficient, robust and high-resolution nature index, there is a need to investigate options for utilizing and combining data from different sources by modelling, and to improve spatial resolution and geographical coverage and facilitate automation of nature index calculations. In this report, we make a few steps towards these challenges through a conceptual framework for integrated hierarchical modelling and data flow, illustrated with examples. We briefly describe some important data sources and their properties (structure, format), as well as possibilities for export/import, with focus on data of relevance for modelling in this and related projects (plants, birds and environmental variables). In due course, a script-based data flow will facilitate automated updating of models and indicators in the nature index when data sources are updated. However, we did not go far in standardizing data flow in this project, because it has become clear during the project that dataflow into the nature index should be part of a long-term broader process involving several institutions. To illustrate modelling approaches that may give full-cover indicator values, we use the arctic yellow violet (Viola biflora) as an example (modelling of birds is presented in a separate report). The arctic yellow violet is not an indicator species in the nature index, but serves as an example to demonstrate how climate data, population data, and occurrence data can be integrated to predict population development over time, and give estimates of indicator values and uncertainties with high geographical resolution. We describe the latest development of routines for import of modelled indicator values to the nature index database with the R package ‘NIcalc’. In addition to the traditional data format (means and quartiles), parameterized lognormal distributions, Poisson distributions, discrete distributions and empirical distributions can be accepted as indicator values. This increases the possibilities for using results from several kinds of models, including integrated hierarchical models, as direct input to the nature index. In the final chapter, we discuss and summarize our results and experiences with respect to possibilities for increased data access and automated updating of the nature index. We conclude with two recommendations. Firstly, we recommend that the framework for data flow should be further developed in a broader collaboration between key data managers and be co-ordinated with related processes and management systems. Secondly, modelling work in this and other projects, which may increase resolution and geographical coverage of nature index indicators, and increase the number of indicators, should be used as a basis for a revision of the plant indicator set towards the next main update of the nature index

Are sub‐alpine species' seedling emergence and establishment in the alpine limited by climate or biotic interactions?

Abstract One of the ways in which plants are responding to climate change is by shifting their ranges to higher elevations. Early life‐history stages are major bottlenecks for species' range shifts, and variation in seedling emergence and establishment success can therefore be important determinants of species' ability to establish at higher elevations. Previous studies have found that warming per se tends to not only increase seedling establishment in alpine climates but it also increases plant productivity, which could limit establishment success through increased competition for light. Here we disentangle the relative importance of several climate‐related abiotic and biotic factors on sub‐alpine species' seedling emergence and survival in the alpine. Specifically, we test how temperature, precipitation and competition from neighbouring vegetation impacts establishment, and also whether species' functional traits, or strategies impact their ability to colonise alpine locations. We found that our six sub‐alpine study species were all able to recruit from seed in alpine locations under the extant alpine climate, but their emergence was limited by competition from neighbouring vegetation. This indicates that biotic interactions can hinder the range shifts expected as a result of climate warming. Species with a resource conservative strategy had higher emergence in the extant alpine climate than species with a resource acquisitive strategy, and they were largely unaffected by changes in temperature. The resource acquisitive species, in contrast, had faster emergence under warming, especially when they were released from competition from neighbouring vegetation. Our results indicate that competition from the established vegetation is limiting the spread of lowland species into the alpine, and as the climate continues to warm, species with resource acquisitive traits might gain an advantage

Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas

Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species’ (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1 C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, C1 and C4 C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (l), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant–plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species’ range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90–100% in the C4 C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species’ present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing.publishedVersio

Table_3_Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas.DOCX

<p>Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species’ (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1°C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, +1 and +4°C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (λ), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant–plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species’ range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90–100% in the +4°C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species’ present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing.</p

Data from: Advancing restoration ecology: a new approach to predict time to recovery

1. Species composition is a vital attribute of any ecosystem. Accordingly, ecological restoration often has the original, or ‘natural’, species composition as its target. However, we still lack adequate methods for predicting the expected time to compositional recovery in restoration studies. 2. We describe and explore a new, ordination regression-based approach (ORBA) for predicting time to recovery that allows both linear and asymptotic (logarithmic) relationships of compositional change with time. The approach uses distances between restored plots and reference plots along the successional gradient, represented by a vector in ordination space, to predict time to recovery. Thus, the approach rests on three requirements: (1) the general form of the relationship between compositional change and time must be known; (2) a sufficiently strong successional gradient must be present and adequately represented in a species compositional data set; and (3) a restoration target must be specified. We tested the approach using data from a boreal old-growth forest that was followed for 18 years after experimental disturbance. Data from the first nine years after disturbance were used to develop models, the subsequent nine years for validation. 3. Rates of compositional recovery in the example data set followed the general pattern of decrease with time since disturbance. Accordingly, linear models were too optimistic about the time to recovery whereas the asymptotic models provided more precise predictions. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate that the new approach opens for reliable prediction of recovery rates and time to recovery using species compositional data. Moreover, it allows us to assess whether recovery proceeds in the desired direction and to quantitatively compare restoration speed, and hence effectiveness, between alternative management options

Table_1_Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas.DOCX

<p>Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species’ (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1°C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, +1 and +4°C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (λ), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant–plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species’ range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90–100% in the +4°C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species’ present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing.</p

Table_2_Plastic Population Effects and Conservative Leaf Traits in a Reciprocal Transplant Experiment Simulating Climate Warming in the Himalayas.DOCX

<p>Climate warming poses considerable challenges for alpine plant species, especially for competitively inferior ones with resource-conservative adaptations to cold climates. The Himalayas are warming at rates considerably faster than the global average, so it is particularly important to assess how and through which mechanisms alpine plant species are affected there. We employed a demographic approach in a climate change experiment, where vegetation turfs were transplanted reciprocally between the central parts of the study species’ (Viola biflora L. var. rockiana) range and the warmer range margin, with a temperature difference of ca. 1°C. In addition, turfs were also transplanted outside the range to warmer habitats, simulating two different scenarios of climate warming, +1 and +4°C. Transplanting to warmer sites negatively impacted population growth rates (λ), survival and clonality, but did not affect growth and fecundity, while the productivity of the plant community increased. The reciprocal transplants to the colder habitat showed the opposite effects, for both V. biflora and the plant community, indicating plastic responses of the study species, driven by changes in plant–plant competition. However, the leaf traits underlying the modeled population growth rates were origin-site specific and not affected by the climate-change treatments over the study period, suggesting local adaptation of growth form to competition in the warmer range margin, and to climate adversity in the colder range center. The transplants outside the present species’ range showed consistently stronger reductions in population growth rate and survival, with mortality of 90–100% in the +4°C treatment. This illustrates that climatic changes beyond species’ present climatic ranges pose a serious risk for range contraction and extinction for Himalayan alpine species in the near future. As V. biflora seems mostly limited by competition under warming, its persistence in a future climate may become increasingly dependent on keeping competitive effects from the surrounding community low, for instance by management interventions like grazing and mowing.</p